The draft is Thursday, and free agency starts on July 1st. While the draft is rather light on big names and immediate-impact guys, free agency isn’t: Andrew Bynum, Dwight Howard, Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, David West, Chris Paul, Monta Ellis, J.R. Smith, Kevin Martin, Manu Ginobili, JJ Redick, Al Jefferson, and Paul Milsap are the biggest names available as unrestricted free agents.
So, I figured a thread to discuss the draft and off-season transactions and news might be welcome, so here it is.
Soooooooooo…what’s the verdict on Miami’s small ball approach? Vindicated? Inconclusive? They got pushed to two game 7s after cruising through the regular season, but they did ultimately survive. Their main weaknesses were a lack of rebounding, and fatigue in the playoffs on the offensive end from maintaining an energetic perimeter defense. It took having the best player in the league to keep their flaws from sinking them.
On the other hand, it’s trivial to conclude that they need bigs (or at least, a different big than Bosh). EVERYONE wants bigs, and there’s only two Gasols to go around. If the talent pool makes it much more likely that you’re going to find a Kawhi Leonard, and very unlikely that you’re going to find a Marc Gasol, doesn’t it make sense to go smaller and more athletic? I think that’s a big part of the reason why there’s been a point guard “renaissance.” You’re just more likely to find an elite guard than you are an elite big (or even an above average big), so build your team around a PG.
If the Cavs end up keeping the #1 pick, I’m coming around to them taking Otto Porter over Nerlens Noel, who has more red flags than Tiananmen Square. SF is a definite need for them.
Full disclosure: I’m a rabid UK fan, but otherwise not a huge college basketball fan. My opinions are thus colored based on how guys play against Kentucky and in the tournament, because that’s when I see them. As you’ll see, I don’t differ from your projections much.
As for what I think the top 5 will be:
Cleveland - Nerlens Noel. There are some red flags, but the upside is clearly there, and the Cavs roster is frighteningly void of athletic bigs (though Tristan Thompson is improving).
Orlando - Ben McLemore. They need guards, period.
Washington - Otto Porter. Only logical: address your weakest position.
Charlotte - Alexander Len. Possibly a reach, but I like Len’s game, Charlotte has one of the worst PF/C units in league history, and they need size.
Phoenix - Anthony Bennett. They are an absolute mess and need help everywhere, so best-player-available leads them to Bennett.
I’d say it was vindicated as the best way to use their personnel, but not necessarily the future of the league or anything that drastic. Teams with quality bigs will continue to win with them, and teams without quality bigs will be smart to downsize, because there are more good small players available than big ones.
This is true, but it means more teams will be vulnerable to a Marc Gasol-type. Roy Hibbert looked unstoppable at times against Miami, when in reality he’s a pretty limited offensive threat. So, going small makes sense to a point, but you need to roll the dice and keep drafting and developing bigs so that a Gasol/Gasol/Hibbert/Bynum*/Howard*/Jefferson type doesn’t have his way with you in the low post.
Pending a return to form.
Looking back at the last few drafts, elite guards have been the safer bet lately:
Guards taken in the top 5 of the last five drafts:
Mike Conley Jr, Derrick Rose, OJ Mayo, James Harden, Tyreke Evans, Ricky Rubio, John Wall, Evan Turner, Kyrie Irving, Bradley Beal, Dion Waters.
Centers taken in the top 5 of the last five drafts:
Greg Oden, Al Horford, Hasheem Thabeet, DeMarcus Cousins, Enes Kanter, Jonas Valanciunas, Anthony Davis
So, looking at that, I’d rather be drawing a random name from the guard bag than the center bag.
It’d be a mistake, so it’s probably what Cleveland will do.
The big news here in Sacramento is that we still have a team to talk about.
I don’t think anyone is really all that concerned about such mundanities as who we’re going to draft and all that right at the moment; we’re just happy to have the opportunity to still be drafting anyone…and really, considering the last few years, it pretty much has to get better, doesn’t it?
I think it will. Bringing in Aaron Brooks was a mistake, the Kings need a pass-first point guard; their offense is a black hole with little passing. Their defense is terrible too, but losing teams often slide into that, and can pick it up when they win a little bit. They have tons of cap space, what would you think about their giving a generous offer sheet to Jeff Teague, whose passing is really coming along in Atlanta, or seeing if Jose Calderon has anything left (he’s a UFA).
DeMarcus Cousins can still thrive in the right system, I’m convinced of it. The team uses him all wrong, he’s a poor post-up player and a poor shooter, and that seems like all they run for him. Despite the big body, he’s really a slasher who can take other bigs off the dribble.
That’s exciting news, Doc will install an actual offensive system, which Del Negro never did, and make them play defense. Plus, so far as I know, Doc has no history with Chris Paul or Blake Griffin, and he’s a respected, accomplished leader, so he should be able to squash their feudin’ and squabblin’ over pace of play and roles. I’ve said for a couple years now that Blake does more with less skill than just about anybody else, his fundamentals are very shaky (he puts his head down on spin moves, for Pete’s sake, and he has a hitch in his jumper, and often releases it on the way down instead of at the peak of his jump, and likes to shoot back across his body in the post). He commits a lot of mental mistakes on defense as well: poor positioning, obvious fouls of the kind that get called every time but he still bitches about, etc. An elite coach is exactly what he needs.
Miami might just stop it themselves, depending on what moves they make this summer; that is to say, I can’t imagine them winning again with the same roster (mainly due to age catching up with Wade, Allen, Haslem, Miller, and Battier), and they have 12 players under contract next season for roughly 85 million, not leaving them with a whole lot of opportunity for additions.
I thought Doc Rivers was under contract for several more years, which is what lead to all the “trade” talks between Boston and the Clippers. Which Stern nixed because you can’t trade coaches.
Sure. A lot depends on if Wade’s struggles were bone-bruise related, or if this level of production is the new normal for him. Either way, Spoelstra would be wise to take a page from Poppovich’s book and limit Wade’s minutes in the regular season to keep him fresher for the playoffs.
And the other big question is if Miami will be able to attract more discount veterans who want a ring.
I’m not sure they were vindicated given they barely got by both the Pacers and the Spurs, but winning the championship does make trading anyone far more risky. That said, I think they will need to do a few things going forward in order to ensure Lebron stays in town, and to secure their future. I would try to do one or more of the following things:
Get Wade and Bosh to take a pay cut. Either re-sign them now to a longer deal with more money total, but less per year, or ask them to restructure their current one.
Take a chance on a big man like Oden, or try to trade for a center (almost any rebounding/defensive center).
Trade Bosh or Wade.
Well put.
While I agree with your general point, I think you need to look at how much better they are than an available replacement player, and what the needs of your team are. Yes, a guy like Rose would make the Heat better, but not really more robust. The Heat don’t need a scoring superstar, so even though guys like Rose and Harden are better than any of those big men, they do little to make the Heat a less vulnerable team in the short/medium term. Honestly, they would be better off with Cousins, Thabeet, or Horford than many of those point guards.
Random thought on Miami’s needs, there is a D-and-3’s guy (34% last year, not great but tolerable) with playoff experience and a team-first game that’s an unrestricted free agent and coming off an $854,000 salary, and is a non-creaky 33 years old: Matt Barnes. Probably worth an offer.
Hmmmm. As for #1, under the current CBA, players cannot renegotiate pay decreases, only raises. So that one’s out.
#2 is their best bet. Oden’s one option. Someone like Robin Lopez would be almost perfect: $5 million a year for very competent defense, rebounding, and awareness of his limitations. He’d be hard to get, though, with the assets Miami has…Norris Cole, maybe? They have no picks in this draft, which makes it tougher. Norris Cole and James Jones? Nah, probably not. Worth a shot, though.
#3 is tough to analyze, because James, Wade, and Bosh are friends as well as teammates, and trading one of them might prompt the others to exercise their opt-outs next summer instead of re-upping. Hard to know without being close to the situation. The other issue is that Wade is much more expendable to Miami as a player, but he has the least trade value of the three after struggling in so many playoff games.
Oh, I was just talking about small-ball in general, and specifically MOIDALIZE’s point about building around guards as a safer bet, which, at least as viewed through the lens of a team with a high draft pick in recent years, seems to be correct.
Sure, when adding pieces to a team with a solid core in place, the equation is different. But for a lottery team, drafting a Derrick Rose seems to pay off more reliably than an Andrea Bargnani.
Much as I like Big Al’s game, that’s the smart play for them. They have the chance to switch their frontcourt from $22 million of Jefferson and Millsap to $10.7 million of Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors without much drop in production (actually, probably an uptick in defense), which gives them flexibility to improve their god-awful backcourt situation. They should be a suitor for Jeff Teague, and maybe Monta Ellis, though not many free agents are itching to sign in Utah.
Hoopshype is reporting a trade rumor: Luol Deng to Washington for the #3 pick. That could be a steal for Washington if Deng’s health checks out.
While that would match Wizards GM Ernie Grunfeld’s M.O., personally as a Wizards fan I don’t like it. That sort of thing may work for other teams, but in Washington it’s fool’s gold.
Like Arizona in the NFL, DC is where veteran NBA players come to die. I’d much rather roll the dice on a young prospect like Porter or Bennett than take on someone else’s old news. Not that Deng is a bad player, in fact he would instantly be the Wizards’ best player, it’s just my gut that this is a bad idea.
Or it could be brilliant, what the hell do I know?
At some point when you’re assembling a collection of talented young guys who lose every year, bringing in a veteran who’s been on winning teams, and knows what it takes to be a pro and a winner, and, crucially, isn’t just trying to play his way off the team with a new big contract needs to be on the agenda. Otherwise, you can get Sacramento or Charlotte: lots of youth, lots of losing, lots of ineptitude and mental mistakes. Sacramento brought in Chuck Hayes for exactly this reason, I suspect, but it hasn’t paid dividends as of yet.
Deng is only 28.
Dallas gave up on Steve Nash in part because if his back problems; he went on to win 2 MVPS and play 8 more high-level years. Tyson Chandler’s toe problems got him shipped to Charlotte after the OKC trade was rescinded; two years later he’s the key piece on a champion, the year after that he’s defensive player of the year. So, guys who are banged up can turn it around.
Then again, this could be a Martell Webster situation, where Chicago knows more than anyone else what kind of shape Deng is in, and thus the fact that they’re shopping him means that it’s worse than generally believed.
John Wall will probably bolt if the team doesn’t improve in the next year, and he’s starting to blossom with what little he has to work with. The longer he has to toil on a losing team, the more bad habits he’ll pick up: shooting long pull-up 2’s, primarily, instead of driving the ball hard inside. Oh, and some really, really stupid passes.
Still and all, if the rumor is real, I say Washington should pull the trigger.
ETA: Red flag: Deng only has one more year under contract, so that “unless the veteran is just trying to play his way off the team and get a new big contract” corollary might be in play. Now I’m less sure.
The Bulls want the #3 pick and Okafor. Even if Deng is healthy, if he refuses to re-sign or agree to an extension, the Wizards would have traded their best frontcourt defender and a young building block who could develop into a star for a 1-year rental.
And as far as Wall is concerned, he’s proven himself to the Wizards, but not necessarily to the rest of the league. He’s only going to get a max deal from Washington and everyone, including Wall, knows it.
ETA: the Post is reporting that the Wizards have no intention of completing this deal. And check out the nice “Matrix” by LeBron in that pic.
