I have the highest Obama EC number, and I still think I may be on the low end.
This will be the 10th time I have voted for POTUS - McGovern 1972!
The only time a Democrat got 50% of the vote since 1964 was in 1976 when Carter got 50.1%.
It’s still a “right of center” country, and the attacks on Obama
in the next 12 days will make Lee Atwater and Karl Rove look like amateurs.
I believe this election should be a landslide win for Obama, but the rest of the country doesn’t think the way I do, or like most of the posters on this board.
I’ll be at a party if Obama wins, so happy I’ll probaly cry. I’m hoping for the best, but expecting the worst
EV -
McCain - 272 -
Obama - 266
Popular - (excluding all others in the race)
McCain - 50.5%
Obama - 49.5%
REMEMBER: You can edit your choices up until next Friday, Halloween, the Witching Hour, very scary boys and girls!
I’m even more optimistic than I was a month ago, and the EC math seems to be breaking Obama’s way. And yet… the “Bradley Effect” has me thinking his popular vote might be less than I’d earlier thought. My revised prediction:
Electoral College: Obama 290/McCain 248
Popular vote: Obama 49%/McCain 47%
Good points made about the popular vote. And, admittedly, I don’t think I fully grasped how much a statistical ass-kicking 53% to 46% would be.
I’m sticking with my EC tallies of 295 to 243 for Obama, but let’s notch the popular down to a more reasonable 51% to 48% (1% other).
Obama 378, McCain 160. Obama 58%, McCain 40%
Most current projections are closer to BobLibDem’s guess than the others. However, I suspect that when Election Day comes, Republican voter suppression efforts will make the last election’s cheating look paltry by comparison.
So I’m going to give Obama all the Kerry states, plus Iowa and NM, which are hopelessly out of reach for McCain. I then give Obama every leaning-Obama state which has a Democratic governor (and therefore will likely run a fair election) and deny him those where the governor is a Republican (expect massive challenges at polls and not enough machines in Democratic, esp. mostly black, districts.) That means McCain will be given Nevada, Florida, South Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana, while Obama adds Ohio and Virginia.
So the final tally will be Obama 306, McCain 232.
The popular vote will be 51-47.
It’s North Carolina that’s in play, not South.
Also, Obama 371, McCain 167.
PV: Obama 52, McCain 46.
Obama 311 McCain 227
52-47 popular vote
I say! I say! Is something going on in the jolly old US of A? 
Oh, OK, we have noticed over here…
269 - 269 :eek:
52-48 to Obama
Hell, why not.
Obama 340, McCain 198. Popular vote 51% Obama, 46% McCain, 3% other.
If we’re using states as tie-breakers, Obama carries HI, WA, OR, CA, NV, CO, NM, ND, MN, IA, MO, WI, IL, MI, OH, ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, PA, MD, DC, VA, NC
McCain carries AK, MT, ID, WY, UT, AZ, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, IN, KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, FL, SC, WV
I’m changing mine.
Obama 323-215 Popular Vote 53/47
EC: Obama 379 McCain 159
Popular vote: Obama 52.8 McCain 44.6
Against that, I reckon turnout and crackup will net it the other way.
I mostly agree with you, except that I think McCain takes MO, NC, ND and OH (Ohio, in particular, very narrowly). Hope I’m wrong about these four, but Obama would still win the Electoral College without 'em.
Obama 301-McCain237
Popular vote, 52-48
In terms of states, Obama gets HI, WA, OR, CA, NV, CO, NM, MN, IA, MO, IL, WI, MI, OH, VA, DC, MD, DE, NJ, CT, NY, VT, MA, NH, RI, and ME.
McCain gets AK, ID, UT, AZ, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, MS, AL, TN, KY, IN, WV, PA, NC, SC, GA, and FL
**The second tie-breaker is -
Which Bush states, if any, will the Democrats pick up?**
Hopefully it won’t get to that, but in case it does, please just select from the following list:
Alabama (AL)
Alaska (AK)
Arizona (AZ)
Colorado (CO)
Florida (FL)
Georgia (GA)
Idaho (ID)
Indiana (IN)
Iowa (IA)
Kansas (KS)
Kentucky (KY)
Louisiana (LA)
Mississippi (MS)
Missouri (MO)
Montana (MT)
Nebraska (NE)
Nevada (NV)
New Mexico (NM)
North Carolina (NC)
North Dakota (ND)
Ohio (OH)
Oklahoma (OK)
South Carolina (SC)
South Dakota (SD)
Tennessee (TN)
Texas (TX)
Utah (UT)
Virginia (VA)
West Virginia (WV)
Wyoming (WY)
Do feel free to abbreviate
Bsuh '04 or Bush '00?
Last election, 2004. I don’t want to get into a debate about Florida.
Ok, I’ll play.
Electoral College: Obama 349, McCain 189
Popular vote: Obama: 51%, McCain 48%.
State Tiebreakers: FL, NM, IA, VA, LA, IN
I hope I’m unduly pessimistic, but I’d say only CO, NM, NV and VA. But it’d be enough!