'08 Fantasy Electoral College Game

The Game Room
41

Alright, I think Obama will pick up every Kerry state, and will also win:

West:
Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico (NB adding those alone Obama would have 271 EVs)

Midwest:
Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio

South:
Virginia, North Carolina, Florida

Total:
Obama 375, McCain 163

Popular Vote:
Obama 53%, McCain 44%, Nader 1%, Barr 2%

42

FiveThirtyEight currently has 375 EV worth of states where Obama is favored, but I’m going to go out on a limb and also give him Montana (there are a whole lot of “unlikely voters” here that a decent GOTV campaign will pick up easily) and one of Nebraska’s districts (just on a hunch, and there are two of them in play), for a total of 379. For the popular vote, they currently have 52.2% Obama, 46.4% McCain, but again, I think that Obama’s ground game is stronger than expected, so I’ll give him an extra 4%, drawn proportionately from the McCain votes and the indies.

So my official entry is Obama 379, McCain 159, with a popular vote split of Obama 56.2%, McCain 42.4%.

43

Obama 375-163
Obama 52-46

44

Oh, and if we’re looking at states, I predict that McCain gets AK, AL, AR, AZ, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, ND, NE, NE-1, NE-3, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, and WY (Obama, of course, gets all the rest).

45

That’s crazy talk. But I like it.

46

OK, here’s my final prediction:

Obama 318 McCain 220

Obama wins: CA CO CT DE DC FL HI IL IA ME (all) MD MA MI MN NV NH NJ NM NY OR PA RI VT VA WA WI

McCain wins: AL AK AZ AR GA ID IN KS KY LA MS MO MT NE (all) NC ND OH OK SC SD TN TX UT WV WY

My popular vote prediction is: Obama 50.4% McCain 48.2% others 1.4%

I must add that I’d love to see some of the more optimistic Blue predictions here come true.

47

Maybe I’m extremely optimistic but of the swing states I predict:

Obama - Winning every one of them (NM, CO, NV, MO, FL, NC, IN, VA, and OH)

Therfore . . .

Obama - 375
McCain - 163

Obama vote - 55%
McCain vote - 43%

48

Obama 364 McCain 174
Popular Obama 55 McCain 45

49

Obama 337
McCain 201

I’m giving Florida to McCain.

Popular vote:

Obama 51%
McCain 48%

50

Obama 375 McCain 163. I think Obama will do better than his polls, but I’m not sure whether or not it will be enough to win Georgia. I think he’ll sweep all the toss up states except North Dakota and Montana.

Popular vote 57% for Obama and 41 for McCain.

51

Obama wins 373-165, Popular Vote splits 57% Obama / 40% McCain

If the polls fails to tighten in the next few days I may come back with a more optimistic revision.

52

I’m amending my predictions to:

EC 311-227

Popular vote at 51-48

Obama takes the following Bush states:

Colorado (CO)
Iowa (IA)
Nevada (NV)
New Mexico (NM)
Ohio (OH)
Virginia (VA)

No Kerry state will flip to McCain, FTR.

53

Obama wins 381-157, Popular Votes Splits 52-46 for Obama

54

While I like the way you think fantasywise, I must confess Halle Berry always features prominently in my own personal Fantasy Leagues. :wink:

But back on topic, I’m going with Obama 52%, McCain 47%, Other disgruntled malcontents 1%

In the EC its gonna be a blowout. Obama 348, McCain 190.

55

**LAST REMINDER:

You can edit your choices up until today, Halloween, the Witching Hour

– MIDNIGHT EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME –

Boo!**

56

I’ve got Obama 364-174, and 53%-45%.

57

Updating my previous prediction…

I think I was being conservative at the time, it’s time to bust it open a bit more.

Obama winning 368-170. Popuar vote 53-46.

He’ll pick up Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

58

Electoral vote:

Obama: 327
McCain: 211
Popular vote:

Obama: 52%
McCain: 46.5%
Bush states won by Obama:

VA, NC, IA, NM, CO, NV, 1 vote from NE, OH

59

I’m keeping mine at
Obama 364 McCain 174
changing the pop. vote to
O - 52%
M - 46%
Obama wins in NC, FL, OH, NV, NM, IA, CO, VA, MO

60

Obama 279, McCain 259. I gave Obama all the Kerry states, plus CO, NM, VA & PA. (It’s going to be a bit of a nail-biter, I’m afraid).

Popular vote…52 - 48.