Obama 388 - 150. 53% - 45% popular vote.
GA, SC, TX, AL, LA, MS, TN, KY, OK, AR, WV, KS, NE, ND, SD, UT, ID, WY, AK go to McCain.
Obama - 338
McCain - 200
Obama - 52%
McCain - 46%
Barr - 1%
Nader - 1%
I think Obama takes Florida and Ohio, but doesn’t take Missouri or Georgia
Alright, I’m making some revisions. Here are my new predictions:
I think Obama will pick up every Kerry state, and will also win:
West:
Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico
Midwest:
Iowa, Missouri, Ohio
South:
Virginia, North Carolina, Florida
Total:
Obama 364, McCain 174
Popular Vote:
Obama 52%, McCain 45%, Nader 2%, Barr 1%
Obama 390 55%
McCain 148 43%
:eek:
I officially hope than whomever has the most predicted electoral votes for Obama wins.
Obama 375, 54%
McCain 163, 44%
Obama 339 electoral, 51% popular
McCain 199 electoral, 48% popular
Among reasonably close states, McCain wins Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Georgia. Obama wins Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Colorado. Obama also picks up one electoral for winning the popular vote in Nebraska’s second district. Maine won’t split; Obama wins all 4 electoral votes here.
Onomatopoeia all ready posted numbers that I came up with (O-338/M-200).
So I’ll wait until fivethirtyeight.com runs today’s numbers and pick a different scenario.
Seconded. But I’m sticking by my more modest projection from earlier.
My 11-year-old carved one of our jack-o-lanterns with the Obama “O” logo! Only a few trick-or-treaters noticed, though.
Neat! I wish I had an Obama punkin.
Okay here are my predictions:
Obama: 353 - 52.2%
McCain: 185 - 46.4%
Obama picks up: CO, FL, IA, NV, NM, NC, OH, VA
McCain keeps IN, MO, & ND
OK… it’s easy to say “378 Obama” because the various composite polling sites that don’t tend towards keeping lots of tossup states are hovering around that. What the heck, I’ll go out on a limb and predict a shift that has not shown up in the polls yet. Just a hunch.
I say Obama brings in over 400 electoral college votes.
My 378 baseline:
CA OR WA HI NV MT [or ND] CO NM MN IA MO MI WI IL IN OH FL NC VA DC MD DE PA NJ NY CT MA RI VT NH and ME
To that I will add:
[both MT and ND not just one], and GA for 396, and at least 4 more from one (or more) of the following: LA, AZ, AR, WV, SD
Bonus: I also say the Democrats get their 60 in the Senate.
I’m just waiting for the day a 3rd party wins at least 3 electoral votes.
Again, you mean?
Aw, man, for a while there, it was looking like I’d get the whole tail to myself. I should have known that there are enough game strategists on the Dope that someone would go over me.
Well, yes. Technically, since I wasn’t born until 1976, I’ve never seen it happen.
Democratic Party Winners
Carter, 1976 297
Kennedy, 1960, 303 incidentally the same as…
Truman, 1948, 303
Clinton, 1992 370
Clinton, 1996 379
Johnson, 1964 486
Republican Party Winners
Bush II, 2000 271
Bush II, 2004 286
Nixon, 1968 301
Bush I, 1988 426
Reagan, 1980 489
Nixon, 1972 520
Reagan, 1984 525
Comments:
a) The photo-finish cliffhangers of the last two iterations are unusual. The electoral college usually magnifies small diffs in the popular vote so that blowouts are the general rule.
b) I say the big suspense is whether Obama surpasses the two Clinton win margins or not.
c) I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Recent (post-Johnson) history has given Democratically-inclined voters the expectation that “if we win, it’s just barely, expect nothing so you don’t get disappointed”. But the Republicans haven’t had a blowout since Bush I in '88. I know that’s a lot more recent than Johnson in '64, but there’s no reason to go around thinking we live in a conservative / Republican nation.
d) On the other hand, can you imagine a contest wherein the Democratic Party garnered over 500 votes in the EC? Me neither. It would be prefaced by conjectural headlines (on page 6 due to lack of general suspense) about whether the Republican could pull off an upset in Alabama despite trailing by 6 points. And whether or not Utah was really in the bag for the GOP this year.
I’m sticking with my prediction. (Not that I can change it at this late date anyhow). Obama will break the 400 EV barrier, just barely. If I’m wrong I won’t be short by much.
fivethirtyeight.com has Obama winning the EC 346.5 - 191.5, popular vote 52 - 46.1
Karl Rove (rove.com) has Obama wining the EC 338 - 200, don’t see a popular vote prediction.
realclearpolitics.com has Obama in the EC 338 - 200, popular vote at 51.9 - 44.2 (but that’s if it’s forced to choose – it also shows 128 EC votes as up for grabs, with a clear 278 - 132 excluding those)
CNN has the electoral split currently at Obama 291 (51%), McCain 157 (44%) and 5% undecided with 90 Electoral votes to close to call (Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina and Florida are the “neutral” states).
Fox News has Obama up 51.9% to 44.4 for McCain. I don’t find an EC split out there.
Gallup: Obama 55%, McCain 44%
Pew Research: Obama 52%, McCain 46%
Later today I’ll try to sort out the responses from folks into a table so we can see how things end up fairly quickly.