I’m still rooting for ataraxy22 to win. (I think he/she picked the most favorable EV outcome for Obama in this thread.)
GO ataraxy22!!!
AHunter3 for the win (I hope)! wooooooo! GO!
(Sorry; on skimming through the thread, I misread yours.)
(in all fairness, there is ANOTHER such thread and in that one someone else also said over 400… I’ll see if I can find it…)
Did find it, but too late for the edit window.
Fish says 410.
Sort of. Those numbers represent the expected value of each candidate’s probability of winning the individual states. They say that the single most likely outcome is 311-228, followed in short order by 353-170, 364-159, and 338-185. According to the site projections, one of those four vote totals will be correct a little more than one time out of three.
It looks now that my 390 may have been just a wee bit too optimistic. Oh well. I’ll take it as it is!!!
Updated my predictions earlier today here.
My original prediction in this thread was off, but for my new one, I’m batting 100% so far. NV will go to Obama, MT, AK, MO to McCain. IN and NC look like tossups, and I could miss there. Hope not, though. Landslide plz.
Dude, we all won. Don’t think it will end up at 400, but you done fine.
My ‘hail mary’ optimistic prediction, which I said I would stand by, did not prevail.
I am therefore out of the running.
But I’d like to point out that my initial more conservative prediction of 378 is still viable. At the moment Missouri is trying to be the spoiler. Missouri would cost me 11 and drag me down to 367. I think NC and IN are on track to deliver, and while it is still relatively early returns MT looks good too.
Revised prediction 367, with hopes for 378.
Well, I missed the EC count, but my popular vote guess was pretty good. I’ll take it.
** Obama McCain Popular**
AHunter3 400 138 57-40
atarxy22 390 148 55-43
borschevsky 388 150 53-45
Figgle Pighead 381 157 52-46
Chronos 379 159 56.2-42.4
hawthorne 379 159 52.8-44.6
BobLibDem 378 160 58-40
Lakai 375 163 57-41
Lawn Gnome! 375 163 55-43
garygnu 375 163 54-44
MentalGuy 375 163 52-46
Raygun99 371 167 52-46
Kid_A 368 170 53-46
Marley23 364 174 53-45
Captain Lance Murdoch 364 174 52-46
Hawkeyeop 364 174 52-45
Knorf 364 174 52-45
Unix Geek 353 185 52.2-46.4
peekercpa 351 187 52-46
**El_Kabong 349 189 51-48**
zamboniracer 348 190 52-47
atomicbadgerrace 340 198 51-46
bibliophage 339 199 51-48
Onomatopoeia 338 200 52-46
Diogenes the Cynic 337 201 51-48
jsgoddess 327 211 52-46.5
Cyberhwk 323 215 53-47
Wilson 320 218 51-48
threeorange 318 220 50.4-48.2
The Tof 311 227 52-47
ShibbOleth 311 227 51-48
kunilou 311 227 50-47
Pleonast 306 232 53-45
RickJay 306 232 51-47
want2know 304 234 53-46
Captain Amazing 301 237 52-48
Jack Batty 295 243 51-48
MsWhatsit 293 245 51-49
Elendil's Heir 290 248 49-47
jsc1953 279 259 52-48
Happy Lendervedder 273 265 50-49
Kevja 272 266 50.5-49.5
glee 269 269 52-48
This puts the current lead somewhere near El_Kabong, but I expect, from what I’ve been able to read, that this will shift more toward the top of our chart.
Note that I’ve input all of this manually, based on the last post you had before the deadline. Please let me know if I’ve got your numbers wrong.
My prediction (which, I’m glad to say, was unduly pessimistic) is accurately reflected in your table, thanks.
Here’s to the President-elect!
Hmm, I’m on pins and needles. 24 hours after the election and NC shows a slight edge for Obama, MO for McCain, but neither has been called yet. If it stays the same, looks like Captain Lance Murdoch will win, based on the tiebreaker.
Looks as if the final Electoral College split will end at 364-173. Four Dopers had that part right.
Marley23 364 174 53-45
Captain Lance Murdoch 364 174 52-46
Hawkeyeop 364 174 52-45
Knorf 364 174 52-45
Now just waiting on a final popular vote split, then might have to go to the second tie breaker. Or not. Either way, very good call from all four of you.
Yes indeedy. N.C. has been called by the AP and CNN for Obama; Missouri is still leaning McCain but nothing certain yet.
Looks like Obama might take Omaha, inching the EC up to 365 in the process. Sure wish that they’d finish up with Missouri.
In my local election, there was a bit of a fun recount. The Supervisor of Elections race was a virtual tie, with the incumbent Buddy Johnson up by just a bit. But there were a lot of problems with the local election, including an inability to upload data from all of the optical scanners. So they had to re-feed the scan sheets into new scanners. The challenger just barely won once they were able to work out the kinks in the voting system. FWIW I voted against the incumbent, not because he’s a bad guy (I don’t think that he is) but because we seemed burdened with long lines and a bit of incompetence. Plus, I later learned, he took the bid on the new equipment, from Diebold, which no longer operates under that name, even though they were not the low bidder. And they contribute heavily to the RNC. And their equipment doesn’t work properly. Hope the new SoE does a better job.