I’ve seen these lopsided prisoner exchanges before, but the ugly math is so obvious in this case.
Hezbollah may think they got the better end of the deal, but as far as I’m concerned they value the lives and bodies of their enemies by two orders of magnitude over and above their own people, and thus earn my contempt.
When I read it, it appeared the other way around – Israel was willing to release 400 Palestinians/Lebanese to recover 4 Israelis.
From Hezbollah’s point of view: “Score! We got 400 free, and it only took 4!”
From Israel’s point of view: “We got our four back and that’s the most important part.”
Now, Hezbollah’s done enough to earn contempt in the past, but I just don’t see why this is so worthy of condemnation. Should Hezbollah have told Israel, ‘No, no, don’t bother with the 400, we only want 4’? Can you clarify?
I think it’s more like “you get everyone we have for everyone you have.” Israel routinely has more captives at any given time.
Haj
It’s just relative prices and income.
It’s also about the way society is built. Hizballah leaders just strike the best bargain they think they can get, regardless of public opinion in their side. Israeli leaders have to take public opinion (as in “You must do everything possible, including emptying the jails, to get these guys back!”) into account.
And I still don’t understand why we didn’t insist on getting some data, at least, on Ron Arad 
Dan Abarbanel
Arad is lost. Dirani will make little difference in this.
There are reports of upwards of 8,000 Palestinians in Israeli jails or detention camps. 430 Palestinians in this “swap” to contain Tannenbaum and regain three corpses is a farce; if it were indeed a bona fide hostile exchange, Israeli VIPs would be disappearing daily and in great numbers.
This deal was brokered by Germany and stipulated tens of foreign nationals, as well as the Palestinians, would be released. This deal has also been in the works as part of the “Roadmap,” from as early as July of 2003.
Israel has lately detained upwards of 800 Palestinians in recent sweeps, as many as 200 from Hebron. I’m sure they’re all militants, right? :dubious:
For the perspective-impaired Americans: Cornwallis’ personal biographer falls into American hands in the midst of the Revolution. British Dragoons and shock infantry are released into the countryside to raid and burn some towns, forcing settlers of all stripes into detention. The men of fighting age are held indefinitely or pressed into service while men, women and children are bargained off for the release of POWs, including the biographer.
For everyone else: Just the same shit Milosevic pulled.
Mr. B, have you accidentally conflated two posts, or am I missing something crucial here?
Whatchoo mean, jjimm? 
I began by answering Noone Special’s post. I believe that Arad is either dead or compromised. The release of Mustafa Dirani in this “swap” will therefore make little difference.
I then continued with the contention that these 430 Palestinians to be released may well have been recently detained, or have been summarily held, without cause, for quite some time.
I feel Israel commits Milosevic-style detentions in effort to gain the upper hand. I also feel that while Israel detains possible militants, it also captures a very large number of innocent Palestinians whose only crime is settling.
Oh, OK, it was the interjection of Cornwallis that confused me.
So if we solve for 1 dead Israeli soldier we get:
1 dead Israeli soldier = ( 100 Palestinians/1 Lebanese)*1 Live Israeli citizen.
God bless the free market.
You know, I wonder if it would be possible to implant some device into the prisoners(without them being aware of the implantation) being returned, so as they would all die a couple months later(spaced out, of course), while having it look like natural causes. Make it easier for Israel to release a bunch prisoners to get their guys back, if they know the released prisoners won’t be bothering them in a year.
Mr B. - My objection is not to the release of Dirani - I doubt he has anything new to tell us about Ron Arad - but rather to the fact that we did not insist on Ron Arad being, in some way, part of the swap. At least some information about him or his fate.
BTW - Labor (opposition) MK Benjamin (“Fuad”) Ben-Eliezer said today on radio (sorry, no on-line cite that I could find yet) that “He believes Ron Arad is alive”. This is out of the blue, I have no idea where this is coming from, but I figure this will garner some more media interest later on during the day…
As to the prisoners being released by Israel: they are not - AFAIK - people held in “Administrative Detention” (that is - without proof of crime or due process), but rather convicted members of terrorist groups, who have been tried in court of law and found guilty. So your assertion that Israel has been, effectively, “picking people of the stree” as hostages is, IMO, unfounded.
Not the “Admin. detention” doesn’t exist - that’s a whole different thread - but I don’t think it’s relevant in this case.
Dan Abarbanel