Two lobsters were caught last week that are said to be a 1 in 100 million find. If they catch one more should they re-evaluate the odds?
According to Wikipedia, the 2010 catch for homarus americanus (the American lobster) was 115,651 tons. At an average weight of 0.5 kg (according to the University of Michigan), that works out to approximately 210,274,545 lobsters (assuming we’re talking US short tons).
So a ‘1 in 100 million find’ should happen a little more than twice a year, on average.
I’d say that the odds are definitely inaccurate, but I’d say they were always were , further information does not change my distrust of those odds.