So what election myths/legends were busted in the 2004 election?
[ol]
[li]Redskins losing last home game before the election means the incumbent loses[/li][li]Early voting skews Republican[/li][li]Large turnout favors Democrats[/li][li]Incumbents polling less than 50% will lose[/li][li]If the Dow Jones Industrial Average is lower on Election Day than on Labor Day, the incumbent loses[/li][li]The Nick News for Kids presidential poll accurately predicts the winner[/li][/ol]
Actually, that’s a legitimate point. If these things have any validity, you could argue that they should be better predictors of the popular vote, rather than the electoral map. Of course, using that argument will throw out most of the predictors we are discussing today, which predicted Bush in 2000.
Does anybody have a list of the various sports games that are supposed to predict the election? I know that they all have lousy track records, but it would be fun to see how they all fared this time around.
It may not have been Nick News, but it was definitely something on Nickelodeon. I was seven years old, and I distinctly remember the winner, Dukakis, being delivered with a pizza. His name was spelled out in pepperoni.
Clearly, this is all the fault of the Red Sox winning the World Series this year.
Breaking that 86-year-old curse must have created a resonance in the sub-psychic etherial causative matrix, disturbing these presidentially predictive points which until this year were as reliable as the sunrise. And is it any coincidence that John Kerry’s from Massachusetts?? Q.E.D.
Polls, especially Gallup, being hugely biased to the right this year because of weighting Republicans too heavily… IIRC, nearly all the final polls favored Kerry by about a point compared to the actual results
Bad economy and high gas prices elects the opponent
The challenger party gains seats during the incumbent’s term, although this probably was already debunked in 2002