unofficial US presidential election predictors

In My Humble Opinion
1

In the past few weeks I’ve read of several “unofficial” ways to predict the USA presidential race.

From Gallup
http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr000829.asp
In the last four elections, the leader after Labor Day has indeed gone on to win the overall election. (I seem to remember that the first poll after Labor Day is actually a pretty good predictor, according to Time Magazine).
Advantage - Gore.

In presidential elections, the tallest candidate has always won. (I’m suspicious of the word “always”).
Advantage - Gore.

In today’s (Friday 27 October 2000) LA Times:
General Cinema conducts a “straw poll” where when you choose a straw for your drink, some wrappers are labelled Democratic and some Republican. (in 135 General Cinema theatres nationwide, including battleground states). The straw poll has been accurate in every election since 1968.
As of today: Advantage - Gore (10% lead).

Any other quaint traditions? Any that favour Bush? Are they any Las Vegas “bookies” that give odds on the candidates?

2

Well, there was a little article in the paper today that quoted some guy who sells Halloween masks. He says in his experience the candidate selling the most pre-election Halloween masks will win. (Meaning, the most masks are sold in that candidate’s likeness, not that the candidate actually sells the mask . . . oh, you know what I mean.) Based on his business, advantage: Bush.

3

Every prime-numbered President since the inception of the Republican Party in 1854 has been a Republican. The next President will be #43, a prime number. Advantage: Bush.

4

The one I like, being a Democrat, is that “It’s the economy, Stupid.” Good times mean the ins stay in.

5

I’d be suspicious as well. I don’t know the heights of their opponent but James Madison was only 5’4". Benjamin Harrison and Martin Van Buren were 5’6".

Rutherford B. Hayes, Ulysses Grant, William H. Harrison, James K. Polk, Zachary Taylor, both John Adams, and William McKinley were all under 5’9".

For all the talk of tall presidents, only 10 have been taller than 6’0" (Lincoln - tallest at 6’4", LBJ, Clinton, Jefferson, Arthur, Bush, FDR, Washington, Jackson, Reagan).

And now that I look closely at the list I can see a couple definite exceptions to that rule:

Jimmy Carter (5’9.5") beat Gerald Ford (6’0")
Woodrow Wilson (5’11") beat Howard Taft (6’0")
Andrew Johnson (5’10") lost to Ulysses Grant (5’8")

A list of presidential heights.

As for indicators, how about this one: the last three presidents have been left handed (and four of the last five). Interestingly there have only been six left handed presidents overall.

Or how about this one, no Quaker has been elected president since . . . Richard Nixon.

At the same web site listed above they have a list of occupations before becoming president. They are able to stretch the definition of “occupation” so that they can call Gore a reporter and Bush a businessman. Yet they have to say “none” for Kennedy, that’s kind of sad.

6

Not to be nitpicky, obfusciatrist, but Andrew Johnson didn’t run against Grant. Grant’s two opponents were Horatio Seymour (1868) and Horace Greeley (1872).

7

The Los Angeles Times has reported on another unofficial election predictor–the National Football League. (The reporter is probably getting his story idea from a light-hearted press release issued by the NFL).

You find out the home team(s) in the state of each presidential candidate…assuming they are both from states with NFL teams. Using the standings of the teams heading into the last week before the election, the candidate with the “home team advantage” wins!

Thus, Al Gore (Tennessee Titans at 6 and 1) will beat George W. Bush (Dallas Cowboys 3 and 4).

The Times points out that this theory worked out to be true in 1968 and 1984, but false in 1976, 1980 and 1988. :slight_smile:

8

According to Al Michaels tonight, the Washington Redskins are a predictor. Since they moved from Boston, the 'Skin’s last home game before a presidential election has inevitably forecast the result–a 100% record since 1940. If the Redskins win that game, the incumbent party in the White House always wins; if the 'Skins lose, the opposition party wins.

Since the Redskins lost to the Titans tonight, that would mean Bush will win the election.

9

Hey, I’m an unofficial election predictor. I’ve voted for every presidential election winner since 1988, when I was first able to vote. Bush in '88, and Clinton the last two times. I’ve also “predicted” the winner in every governor’s race in my state (VA) since '89. Wilder, then Allen, then Gilmore. Sure, my political beliefs are highly suspect, but you can’t doubt the results.

I haven’t decided yet who to vote for this year, except that I’m not voting for Bush. When I decide I’ll let you know. :slight_smile:

10

Oooh… ran into another one, somewhere in the Washington Post yesterday, can’t remember exactly who, but:

Every election year in which the Lakers win the championship, a Republican is elected. (1968, 1972, 1984, 1988 and… 2000). Advantage: Bush.

11

Guess what? I’ve come up with a foolproof answer to who will be the next president! I’ll bet every last penny that I own that some old, rich, stuck up, stupid white guy will win the 2000 elections! I mean, look at all of the past presidents. They all fit into this profile. But, to change the subject, I think that Al Gore will probably win. At least I hope he does. I’d rather vote for the guy who’ll at least admit that he smoked pot, as opposed to Bush, who can’t seem to remember much of anything. But then again, Gore also claims that he invented to internet and exposed the whole Love Canal pollution stuff…