Let’s assume you’re a bookmaker or the head of the North America department in the Chinese Foreign Intelligence Service.
The task is to make a longterm prediction and compile a list of persons who have the potential to be nominated to run for the office of president of the United States and win the election in the year 2024.
How many names would have to be on that list to predict the future president with a degree of probability p (0 ≤ p ≤ 1)? p = 1 meaning it is absolutely certain that the name of the future president is on that list.
l stands for the number of names on the list.
How about these figures:
a) p = 0.1; l = 200
b) p = 0.5; l = 750
c) p = 0.9; l = 5,000
d) p = 0.99; l = 10,000