I’m wondering for the presidents, at what point in time it was possible to make a case that that person had a decent shot of one day being president? It seems like for the recent string of presidents, it was pretty soon before they got elected.
For Obama, for example, I’d say the DNC speech in 2004 (4 years).
Don’t see how this is a debate rather than a GQ. Not much margin for debate.
I don’t think you understood the question.
Franklin Roosevelt was considered a rising star as early as 1920 when he was chosen as the VP nominee. He had the bonus of name recognition due to being related to Theodore Roosevelt.
Ronald Reagan was first noticed as a political prospect when he gave a popular speech in favor of Goldwater at the 1964 convention.
If you could, include the duration between when you think they were noticed and when they were elected. I’m mainly interested in that duration and how it may have changed over time.
Elucidate, please. I think I perfectly did.
The data I provided is the answer & I very much doubt pundits or public were unaware of it.
But if you want to take it outside those numbers and in my lifetime, I would have bet the house on Reagan winning both terms. Or Obama winning both of his. Or Clinton winning his second Obvious is obvious.
I think the question is, how long before the person was nominated could you say, “You know, I’m pretty sure this guy is going to be president some day”
The OP is asking when somebody could have named as a possible future President not when they were actually elected.
FDR: “Noticed” in 1920. Elected in 1932. 12 years.
Reagan: “Noticed” in 1964. Elected in 1980. 16 years.
My personal opinions:
Truman: “Noticed” in 1940. Became President in 1945. 5 years.
Eisenhower: “Noticed” in 1945. Elected in 1952. 7 years.
Kennedy: “Noticed” in 1956. Elected in 1960. 4 years.
Johnson: “Noticed” in 1956. Became President in 1963. 7 years.
Nixon: “Noticed” in 1948. Elected in 1968. 20 years.
Ford: “Noticed” in 1973. Became President in 1974. 8 months.
Carter: “Noticed” in 1976. Elected in 1976. 0 years.
George H.W. Bush: “Noticed” around 1973? Elected in 1988. Around 15 years.
Bill Clinton: “Noticed” in 1987. Elected in 1992. 5 years.
George W. Bush: “Noticed” in 1994. Elected in 2000. 6 years.
Fair enough. You are right. Do don’t lose hope 
Both Obama and Clinton were important if not keynote speakers at the convention 4 years before they became nominate (2004 and 1988).
Both parties have the near future nominee be a speaker at the convention to nominate someone else as president (Mccain, Romney, Obama, Clinton, etc). However narrowing down that list is hard as to who will get it.
I don’t know if W was a speaker in the 92 or 96 convention for the RNC. So there is a hole in that theory.
What is your opinion on future nominees based on who is getting noticed now?
I think gov. Schweitzer or Cory Booker could be nominated sometime in the next 20 years on the DNC side (I’m assuming 2016 is going to be Hillary). I have no idea about the GOP side. I assume in the medium term they will move further to the right. I wouldn’t be surprised if Paul Ryan is nominated in 2016.
NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo gave a very popular speech at the 2012 DNC and many expect him to run in 2016.
I bet a lot of people figured Washington would be President of the United States even before the existence of the United States.
Nope. They thought he would be king. That’s how most folks thought back then.
My son was born in September 2009.
Patronage line starts to the left.
Clinton wasn’t the keynote speaker in 1988. That was Ann Richards, soon to be governor of Texas. Clinton gave a very long nominating speech for Michael Dukakis.
I’ve always thought this thread from July 2004 was a really fun read.