Over in this threadjjimm asked when Obama was first mentioned on the SDMB. First reference seems to belong to dropzone in a thread about race but it’s noteworthy that Obama’s speech at the 2004 Democratic convention started more than a few folk speculating about his political future, and some of them made a few remarks about his character and prospects that look downright prescient in hindsight.
[Declaring my own status on political predictions here: I completely missed Obama’s 2004 speech and didn’t notice him until the primaries and thought Clinton was going to pip him at the post. And if you’d asked me in 2004, I’d have bet money that the first black President would be a Republican one. The only non-obvious Obama-related prediction I’ve come remotely close on was that he might split the Nebraska electoral votes and take Omaha, and that’s still in the recount stages. So I can’t get too smug about those who didn’t quite get it right. However…]
Spot on:
Close but no cigar:
Sorry - thanks for playing!
*[*N.B. ** Though John Mace is talking about a Clinton-Obama ticket, Biden is from Delaware - not quite “Northeast” but close enough]
At the time, I posted that he’d made a remarkable speech and had big potential, but should stay in the Senate for a term or so, and then run for Governor of Illinois to build up his resume. I said he could still run in 2016 or 2020. He said at first he wouldn’t run this year, but ultimately he realized something I didn’t - this was his moment, and it would be stupid to pass that up because it ran contrary to political wisdom. Say what you will about the guy, he seizes opportunities. Once we got to mid-February I thought he was going to win the whole shebang, but props to the Dopers who were way ahead of me and paid attention to their sense instead of common sense.
I found a thread from July 2004 where I said the following: “I hadn’t seen him speak before. I was really stunned. He does have a good story, and he managed to make some very lofty remarks sound very sincere. Having seen that, I do think it’s possible he could be President some day.”
Not the earliest, but I said that before I said the things I already detailed.
These two threads got me to pay attention to this guy with a funny name. Of course, it was later all over the newspapers since he has Hawaii roots. Good call, guys!
In November 2004 I predicted presidential tickets featuring Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008. Well, not exactly the way it turned out, but still, Obama and McCain were there.
I posted on a different board after having heard Obama’s 04 convention speech that I thought he would be president one day. Now I wish I had done that here and gotten praise for my prescience. Oh well.
I voted for McCain. Obama is my president. I am not disappointed.
Sometime last year (no, I won’t search for it because, even if it wasn’t embarrassing, I’m just too lazy) I posted something about how I thought that the Democratic Party would nominate another old white guy because it was the safe thing to do and that I would settle for him as the lesser of two evils.
Then again, I also predicted a McCain victory in 2008. The post was ironic, but I truly believed that Obama had a good shot at the Presidency, though his early run was unexpected.
Having worked hardcore on his campaign with the likes of Shayna and others here - I’ll admit I didn’t post about Obama back in 2004. But I was part of the Great SDMB Mass Exodus to Obama back when he declared his candidacy in Springfield. And have been an ardent supporter/camaigner ever since. Stoking the fires when people got sad that he may not beat Hillary, looking back, Hillary had zero chance.
