Ok, so that’s quite an exageration, but possibly not. Read on…
I predict if Dubya were to pick Condeleeza Rice as his running mate he would beat any Democratic ticket hands down. Obviously, the first choice would be Colin Powell. But that will never happen. First off, Powell doesn’t want the job and second why would Powell run as Bush’s partner when he could easily run for President and beat Bush?
If the party ticket stays as it is now, Dubya and Chainey (or cheney if you prefer), then I don’t believe he will win unless he does something in the next year to fix the economy. I highly doubt he will. While I don’t blame him entirely for the economy, I think he bears the brunt of the burden for it. He has had plenty of time to make a difference. With the new congress in place, that is even more reason why the Republicans have no excuse.
With his hard-on for Iraq, a war will only make things worse. FTR- I’m against the war. I think it could be handled simply by backing out gracefully (if gracefully is even possible) and stating that we will leave you alone for now. However, if you do anything to harm us we will nuke you back to the stone age. No trial, no hearings, no UN approval. Just vaporize Bhagdad. (if only some of our politicians would go to Iraq as human shields, I might be for the war. I think a 50/50 mix of democrats & republicans would be “fair & balanced”)
So, what say the teeming? Do you think a Bush/Rice ticket would smoke the Democrats?
I think Bush will win a big victory in 2004, regardless of VP, because[ul][li]Republicans did exremely well in 2002.[]Democrats appear to lack a strong Presidential candidate.[]Bush has overcome his biggest weakness in 2000, which was lack of experience and apparent lack of competence.[]By Nov. 2004, the Iraq war will have been completed successfully.[]The Democrats have veered to the left. Their anti-Bush rhetoric will hurt them in 2004, when his aggressive foreign policy has proved to be successful, especially if terrorism is still a threat.Bush has worked hard to gain minority support, particularly Hispanics.[/ul]I think Condoleezza Rice would probably make a fine VP candidate (and a fine President). I’d love to see her run. However, her campaign skills are untested. [/li]
Bush says he wants Cheney to run again and Cheney says he wants to stay as VP. I have no reason to doubt them.
Our economy is in the toilet, gas prices are skyrocketing (which, I believe, is what GW wants)…
I have changed my mind about a possible war with Iraq. I’m now completely against it, largely because of the bone-headed rhetoric I hear coming out of the White House.
I don’t think GW has a prayer of being re-elected.
Besides, C. Rice is doing quite well where she is now. Not that I would object to that ticket. Should Cheny have another heart attack, she’d be a good choice.
[ul]
[li]Democrats did extremely well in 2002, capturing several key governorships. The losses in the US Congress were minor and to be expected for the party that actually won the presidency in 2000.[/li]
[li] Republicans lack a strong candidate.[/li]
[li] Bush’s lack of competence is becoming more clear by the day[/li]
[li] By November 2004, the American occupation of Iraq will be in its second year and Americans will tire of the continuing cost of the war.[/li]
[li] Bush and the Republicans are squandering any inroads they have made in minority support, from the Trent Lott debacle to the U-M affirmative action debate.[/li][/ul]
The VP choice makes little difference, even Condaleeza Rice would not attract black voters to Bush. Cheny will run again.
I think Bush will win in 2004, although I don’t believe it will be a landslide. Said this last year, and in fact offered to put my money - or at least my Scotch - where my mouth was. I offered all the Bush-bashers the chance to bet on the election outcome - and none of the most virulent rose to the occasion. Ultimately the more level-headed Jonathan Chance took up the wager, so he, at least, showed the courage of his convictions.
We’ll see what happens. But I am confident Bush will win in 04, and I said as much in '02.
I voted for Bush in 2000 and it would take a whole lot of changes(eg promise to drop Ashcroft) to get me to vote for him again. I’d vote for any democratic challenger except Lieberman against him, and if Lieberman did run I’d probably either vote 3rd party or just not at all. Are there more people like me out there? I don’t know, but I wouldn’t doubt it.
No predictions until we know who the Democratic nominee will be.
If it’s Dean, bye-bye George. If it takes more money than he can raise, Kerry will have a problem winning. I’d bet against anyone else. Whoever it is will have to convince us that he’ll make us safer than George has or can - and a stalled war with a living Saddam and Osama will make that case. If there’s a stroke of luck and they’re dead, then it’s going to be close - but there will still have to be time after the parades for people to focus on the economy, and then he and Poppy can commiserate about their one-term-ness.
But no way does Bush win comfortably - there’s no time for the economy to recover even if he were doing anything to make that happen.
The economy will be in the toilet. Unemployment will be through the roof. All social services will be contingent on Christian proselytization. The illegal invasion of Iraq will have failed in its intent to boost Junior’s approval ratings or to give the impression that Bush has done anything about terrorism. Terrorism will actually increase as a result of the illegal invasion. Bush willl be distracted and further hurt politically by having to defend himself in a war crimes tribunal. Bin Laden will still be at large. Cheney will refuse to take himself off the ticket. Southern rednecks will never vote for a black woman for anything. Bush will say and do more stupid things that we don’t know about yet.
A combination of Ozzy Osbourne and Carrot Top would be able to beat this guy in '04.
I assume that December and Texican would vote for the ghost of Warren Harding if he was on the ticket and confidently predict his victory in the general election. Before I make any predictions on this one I want to see:
Where the economy is in the summer of 2004;
How Iraq goes;
How the war on terrorism goes; and
Carl Rove’s state of health and whether he is still W’s brain.
When we have answers to that we will know whether W can be reelected on a platform of eschewing oral sex in the line of duty. If the above four factors go south on him we will be financing another presidential library in Texas.
The GOP running-mate question might be better phrased as “Will Cheney pick Bush for another term?” If Uncle Dick is still alive, he’ll want to remain in power - and furthermore will have an excuse not to distract himself by campaigning all that actively.
And yet, amazingly, both Elvis1Lives and Diogenes the Cynic refused to accept my offered wager last year. I find it fascinating - so confident with the words, and so thin with the monetary risks.
