2007 Atlantic Hurricane season

I seem to remember that at the beginning of the year that the NOAA (I think it was) predicted a heavier than normal Atlantic hurricane season. I realize that we are only halfway through the season but I was wondering if it is matching the predictions? Do they change their evaluations mid-season? How do their pre-season predictions compare to reality?

I know, meteorological predictions are iffy at best (hell, they have problems telling you what the weather will be like next weekend, let alone next month) but I want to know if anyone knows how well the great prognosticators are doing. No, this is not a global warming rip so please don’t let this devolve into one.

The National Hurricane Center came out with a May prediction and an August update. The May prediction:

The August update:

So far, there have been 12 named storms, four of which (Dean, Felix, Humberto, Lorenzo) have become hurricanes and two of which (Dean, Felix) have become major hurricanes. At this point they’re close to the predicted number of named storms and major hurricanes, but a bit short on the total number of hurricanes.

Ya and they get to take credit for a couple of Cat 5s which tore up a bunch of jungle even though what most people take away is an assumption that actual Civilization is going to get beaned.

You think where they make landfall counts in measuring their frequency or intensity?

This is the first year in recorded history that two category 5 hurricanes have made landfall in recorded history.

This is the first post in recorded history with two “in recorded history” :wink:

Can you give us some background? How have their predictions been these past few years?

That’s what I’m tryign to find out. Last year I think they started out saying it was going to be worse than usual but it didn’t turn out that way. I was just wondering if the weather wizards here would happen to know how close the predictions come to reality.

Totally, if you took a poll… :wink:

I am not paying my tax dollars to find out what’s gonna happen to some remote bug-infested jungle harboring rebels. I only care about MY hurricane season. Unless I have invested there, of course.


13 now.

I’m guessing that, as has happened in the last two years, the powers-that-be will never again predict seasons that are **not **above-average in activity.

OK, we have an update!

The article says that his predictions are “closely watched”. What is his average? Looking at what the article shows he was 55% right last year overall and 77% right this year so far.

I know he can’t be 100% but I would hope for better odds. Does anyone besides Gray and his group make similar predictions?

Another update!

Are these guys using satellites and computers or are they just shaking the Magic 8 Ball?

We have Tropical Storm Noel down south of us right now. I think that makes it 14, with a few weeks of “season” to go.

way off.

Nice try but until they can show a better track record, I’ll get my predictions from the horoscope section of my paper.

My local weatherman can usually tell me if it will rain tomorrow and sometimes if it will be warm next weekend but these guys suck at telling us about major storms coming over a multiple month range. Their computer models apparently need to be scrapped and redone.

As a slight aside, do they use similar models for the GW predictions?

Remember: Climate != Weather

Well, as you’re located in Illinois, your hurricane season is rather minor.

If last year is any guide, the storm totals will be edged upwards if trackers can “discover” another tropical storm or two that wasn’t announced during the season.

Unlikely, since William Gray is one of the heroes of the AGW deniers.


I understand that, but isn’t there some degree of overlap between climate and weather? The scientists will be using current air and water temperatures and historical data to extrapolate out to a future point and attempt to predict what kinds of weather patterns we might see. What is the difference between predicting weather patterns for next year, as they do for hurricane forecasts, versus predicting reduced rainfall or superhurricanes 10 years from now the way the climatologists do? If climatologists are so good at predicting what the weather will be like in 10/20/50 years (despite the fact that climate != weather) then why can’t they reverse their process and tell us what to expect next year?

I know this sounds a little snarky but I am asking a serious question. Faulty short term predictions generally lead to really crappy long term predictions. If the short term computer model sucks, then why should we trust the long term model? Are climatologists using different data? If so, why don’t the hurricane forecasters use it? And if not, then why should we believe them?