I meant to add an addendum to that post. If Bush and the Dems want to unite on something it should be changing that provision of the Constitution. For Dems it sends the message that immigrants are Americans in every sense of the word, and are no less qualified to hold the highest office than anyone else. For Republicans it frees one of their shooting stars (file that under whouda thunkit) to run if he so chooses.
Rudy Giuliani vs Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Although Rudy has left leanings, dyed-in-the-wool GOPers will cast their votes
to him over Hillary - no doubt.
Bricker says he thinks Cheney will resign, therefore it is as good as done. So Hilary vs. whoever the Republicans pick as VP.
Although her chances are worse than they were before yesterday. Do the Dems really want to pick another Senator?
And my wish/prediction for VP is Condi Rice (IhopeIhopeIhope) or Tommy Thompson.
Rehnquist will resign in the next few months. Who do y’all think Bush will tap to replace him on the Court?
Regards,
Shodan
Everyone said he wasn’t going to make it through the first term. He doesn’t look like a quitter to me, and he looks as healthy as he ever has.
I can’t figure out why so many on the right (and, granted, more than a handful on the left) think that Hilary is going to take the '08 Dem nomination. The Democratic primaries this year indicated that “electability,” for what it’s worth, was a major factor. If nothing else, Hilary’s “electability” quotient on the Presidential level must be close to zero–far too much working against her, not enough working for her. One day we’ll see a major-party female Presidential candidate, but I don’t think it will be Hilary.
Shodan: You really think Condi Rice is a potential replacement for Cheney? But she’s so surly and overly-concerned with foreign policy…OK, you may be on to something there. Still, can’t see it happening myself. Powell or Frist, now that I can see, maybe Thompson. But Condi, no. The Bush admin would rather keep Condi on as NSA.
Oh yeah: Bricker, if you’re reading this: if you want to bet that Cheney will resign during this term, you’re on. Bets would be off if Cheney dies or is completely physically incapacitated mid-term, though. I assume what you mean is that Cheney would consciously decide to resign. I don’t drink though, so you’d have to think of some other bet.
Oh, God, I just had the scariest thought of my life. What if it’s Ashcroft.
2008: George W. Bush vs William Jefferson Clinton – anybody’s guess.
(because Bush will do away with amendment 22)
I have no idea who will run, but I have my bets on who isn’t
For the repubs, McCain is too old and I don’t think Jeb Bush can win it. People are going to be distrustful of a dynasty and it’ll be too easy of a play for the democrats to make his name work against Jeb.
On the democratic side, I think Clinton and Obama are out. Clinton won’t play in middle america and Obama needs more seasoning. Look for Obama and Clinton to make a big power play in the senate for the Dems though. Having Daschle out helps them and I think they are the vocal element the Dems need right now.
I will say that I suspect a lot more candidates for president to come from state governors. Their lack of a voting record (compared to that of a senator) makes their campaigns more defendable than a senators.
You can’t tell for sure. Who expected John Kerry to run in 2004?
I doubt Cheney wants to be president, so someone else will run on the republican ticket. If Cheney dies in office it’ll be his replacement. Aside from that its pure speculation.
Now there’s an idea. If Republicans are so confident in the invincibility of their boy Dubya, I hereby challenge them to repeal the 22nd Amendement! Let the people decide!
But seriously, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dean make another run. And this Southern Democrat likes the idea. It was not the fact that Kerry was from the East that hurt him here. It was his patrician air and his droning delivery. He just seemed patronizing. Dean (while he may have a similar patrician background) has an easy down-to-earth manner, which is what connects with voters in these parts. I think Iowa caucus voters made a mistake when they voted against Dean and in favor of Kerry on the theory that Kerry was more “electable.”
Edwards, if he wants to make another run, needs a platform from which to do so. Currently he is unemployed. I can’t see a path that gets him there, but maybe I’m missing it.
The actual candidate will probably be a Democratic governor we’re not currently contemplating who posts a good track record in his home state over the next three years.
At least on paper, Bill Richardson is the Dems best hope in 2008. He’s from the Southwest which is probably the most likely area for the Dems to pick up votes, he’s hispanic, which as Mel Martinez will testify, is a big help. He has been a congressmen, Energy secretary, a UN ambassodor, and a congressman. Also, from the interviews I’ve seen, he comes off very well spoken, deffinately passes the beer test.
Obama will not have enough experience, Hillary is too vilified, Dean is seen as a loser after this election, Edwards is loosing his senate seat and thus a double loser and also unexperienced.
Vilsack is another governor who gets suggested as pres material a lot, but other then the fact that he has a funny name I don’t know anything about him. Anyone?
I’ll be back later to tell the Repubs who they should run.
Be funny if the dems try running Daschle. Won’t happen, but he does have some features that would make him an attractive candidate. And I hear he’s looking for work.
This year was the triumph of the get out the base strategy for the Repubs, as a result they won’t run anyone too moderate next time around. Gulliani and Arnold are out as they’re prochoice. McCain has been to critical of the religious wing of the party, and as a result. he’s out. Cheney is too old and too grim, they need somebody charismatic. Unless the Iraq situation dramatically improves, some current administration figures like Powell, Rumsfeld and Rice will be too tarnished by their association with it that they won’t be viable. Ashcroft would be a little too scary I think. They still can’t totally abandon the middle.
Who does that leave us with. If Bush leaves office with high approval ratings, then I think deffinately Jeb. He’s been a succsessful gov, deffinatley appears to be the smarter brother and would have Pres Bush’s legacy.
I know I’m quite biased, but what do people think of Russ Feingold’s chances (perhaps as a running mate)? Yes, according to fruitbat’s criteria he is white and a man, but he’s one of the poorist if not the poorest Senators. He’s from the Upper Midwest (which has just barely gone Democratic the past 2 election cycles), is a Rhodes scholar, has been able to win over rural areas of his state, and has a rep for not always following the party line. Cons–it seems a lot of people really don’t like McCain-Feingold, he doesn’t have any executive experience, and is considered too liberal by some.
Guys that won’t run in 2008:
McCain: Too old and doesn’t appear to want the job anyway. A shame because in some ways he is THE crown jewel of the party. He IS a war hero and we already know he can handle pressure.
Powell: See above, plus he’d lose.
Giuliani: Waaaaay too liberal. A Republican presidential candidate that supports partial birth abortion? No way, no how. All the Dems would have to do is nominate someone who is more pro-life than Rudy and most Republicans would run far away. (The thing with him trying to move his mistress into the house while he was still living with his wife doesn’t help, either.)
Romney: Pro abortion and a bad gun record. He’d scare the south.
Possibilities:
Rick Santorum: Not for Prez, but VP. Despite how his enemies try to paint him, he’s really not all THAT conservative. Look up his positions sometime. He’s got balls of steel, as far as we know he lives squeaky clean, his wife would be a HUGE asset and we pro-lifers adore him. His good looks are icing on the cake, as they were with John Edwards. He would not get the Presidential nomination because he would scare moderates and even some Republicans, but coupled with a running mate a tad more liberal, he might do well.
Bill Frist: good solid conservative. Pro-gun, from the south, family values kinda guy. A doctor, so he’d nail the tort reform vote.
I’m from the UK, so can only give an outsider’s view.
Haven’t the Democrats recently only been successful with Southern candidates? (Carter, Clinton)
So who are the white, male, Christian, straight charismatic Southern Democratic Governers?
Presumably the Bush dynasty has now proven itself (sort of like the republican Kennedys), so which Bush family members are next?
Is there a movement to pass legislation allowing naturalised US citizens to run? because then Arnold looks like the next movie star to run (cf Reagan).
Just what I was thinking. What about Warner of Viginia?
Virginia has 13 electoral votes and was a <10% Bush win.
Just to record this for posterity, I predict an Ed Rendell/Bill Richardson ticket versus Bill Frist/Condi Rice.
It wouldn’t suprise me if the GOP considered Gov. Bill Owens of CO, Bush’s right-hand man.
Not a bad choice, perhaps. Maybe teamed with Evan Bayh.