# 2009 NFL Prop Bet Extravaganza

Welcome, friends, to the 2nd Annual SDMB NFL Prop Bet Extravaganza. (Last year’s contest.) Below are 42 proposition bets about the 2009 NFL regular season (a separate playoff version when the time comes is a possibility). Most of the wagers and odds are taken from various online sports books, but some are of my own design. For those who played last year, Rule #1 has been tweaked, there’s a note listed as rule 2a, and the cash prizes are now merely nominal, but otherwise the procedure is the same.

2008 Champion: **Hamlet
**

Quick-start Rules

– You have \$5000 with which to wager. You must put at least \$4000 of it at risk. The minimum bet is \$100, the maximum bet is \$400, and all bets must be in multiples of \$100 (so there are only four possible bet sizes). Within those limits, spread out your bets however you please.

– The odds will change from time to time, so it is extremely important that you scan the thread for the most recent odds before placing bets. Any post revising the odds will say so in BIG RED LETTERS at the top.

– You don’t have to make all your bets in one post, but can rather spread them out over up to three posts (i.e. “bet sheets”). If you do this, please clearly identify a 2nd or 3rd bet sheet as such.

– Make sure to list the odds and the question when placing a bet. Try not to stray too far from the following example:

#3) Which bird-themed team will finish with the best record?
\$300 – Baltimore Ravens, +225

– The objective is to finish with the most money in your bankroll. 1st place wins \$5 of real money, 2nd place wins \$3, 3rd place wins \$1.
Long-Form Rules & Instructions

Notes:
Vigorish is factored into the odds; in part, this is because I want to track my “winnings” as the bookmaker. Keep in mind that the severity of the vigorish will fluctuate from question to question.

– Every wager will have odds associated with it. The odds will be listed in “moneyline” (+/-) style. So, for example:

Will Andy Reid shave his mustache on or before December 31st, 2009?
Yes +1200
No -1500

In this case, a “Yes” wager of \$100 will pay \$1,200 if it wins, while betting “No” would require you to risk \$1,500 in order to win \$100. Note that some bets will involve a point spread or an Over/Under line in addition to the moneyline odds. If at any time you’re confused by the odds listed, please ask for a clarification.

– For some of the questions, the options will not be comprehensive. For reasons of space it’s just not practical to offer odds on, say, all 32 starting QBs, in which case I just listed most of the favorites, along with some other options I found interesting.
RULES:

1. Each contestant has \$5,000 with which to gamble. The minimum wager is \$100, the maximum wager is \$400, and all wagers must be in multiples of \$100 (so there are only four possible sizes for any given bet). At least 80% (\$4,000) of the \$5,000 bankroll must be put at risk.

Within those limits, players may make as few or as many bets as they wish, on whichever questions they choose. They may, if they desire, place more than one wager on a single question (e.g., wagering on both the Colts and the Jaguars to win the AFC South), but they may not exceed the \$500 bet limit by this method (e.g. betting on the Colts to win the AFC South two separate times).

Note that all wagers are listing the amount of money that you are putting at risk, not the amount that you stand to win. So, in the example above, if you bet the maximum (\$400) at odds of -1500 that Andy Reid would not shave his mustache, then you would be risking \$400 in order to win \$27.

If there’s a tie in a “Which X will finish the season with the most/fewest Y?” question, all of the qualifying options will pay out; this possibility will be factored into the odds.
2) As in the real world, the odds will change from time to time in response to both real world developments (e.g. injuries) and unbalanced wagering. Just like an actual sportsbook, I will seek to limit the degree to which my profits depend on particular outcomes. So, in the example above, if 90% of the early action came in on Andy Reid not shaving his mustache, I would probably alter the odds to make “Yes” a more attractive option.

Therefore, it is extremely important that you scan the thread for the latest odds before placing your wagers. When I change the odds, I will say so in BIG RED LETTERS at the top of a post listing the latest information for all wagers (not just the ones that have been altered). New odds will be posted as circumstances dictate, most likely once a week or so.

Naturally, changes in the odds only affect future wagers; once you place your bets, they are locked in at the odds that were current at the time of the wager.

2b) Since I can’t be at the computer 24/7 to change the odds, the house reserves
the right to retroactively void wagers on certain wagers which take place *after *an event which has a major, obvious impact on the probabilities involved, but *before *I’ve had a chance to modify the odds to reflect the new situation.

So, for example, if Philip Rivers completely blows out his knee tomorrow morning, don’t rush to hammer Questions 34 and 35 before I can post revised odds, since those questions will be retroactively declared to be off the board until the new odds are up.

There’s no penalty for this behavior, of course, and I’ll try to keep the threshold for invoking this rule fairly high. With luck it won’t be an issue at all (it wasn’t last year). If it does come up, however, it’s only likely to come up with Questions 10 and 26-35.
3) Each player may submit up to three “Bet Sheets” – that is, you don’t have to wager all of your \$5,000 in one post, but may instead spread it out over two or three posts . This may be a useful option if you anticipate the odds moving in one direction or another and want to lock in one set of odds while waiting for others to become more favorable.

Players may “add on” to a previous wager so long as the combined amount does not exceed the \$500 limit. Players may also bet opposing sides of a given wager, either because they want to take advantage of changes in the odds, or simply because they’ve had a change of heart and want to “buy back” a previous bet.

Any player submitting a second or third Bet Sheet must clearly identify it as such at the top their post. Players are responsible for keeping track of how much money they have left to risk. Any player who accidentally wagers more than \$5,000 will have his or her most profitable bets voided until the total amount risked is back within the limit.
4) All bets are final – once you can no longer edit your post, you can no longer edit your wagers.
5) Format: Deviations from the proper format for listing wagers will not be penalized so long as the particulars of the wager are clearly discernible, but try to stick to the following boilerplate:

Question#) Question

Sample:

#3) Which bird-themed team will finish with the best record?
\$300 – Baltimore Ravens, +350

. . . Or, for multiple wagers on the same question:

#7) Which QB will throw for the most yards?
\$400 – Peyton Manning, +700
\$100 – Matt Cassel, +5000
6) Deadline: All Bet Sheets must be posted no later than Thursday, September 10th, at 8:30 PM EDT. Results will be announced after the announcement of offensive and defensive rookies of the year, which takes place a few days after the last Sunday of the regular season.
7) Prizes: The aim of the contest is to finish with the most money. 1st Place wins \$5, 2nd Place wins \$3, 3rd Place wins \$1.
The initial odds will be listed below. Good luck everyone!

INITIAL ODDS – 8/9, 5:57 PM EDT
#1) Which conference will have a better record in inter-conference games?
AFC -185
NFC +155

#2) Which division will have the best cumulative record?
NFC East +300
AFC South +300
AFC East +575
AFC North +625
NFC South +625
NFC North +810
NFC West +3700
AFC West +3900

#3) Which division will have the worst cumulative record?
AFC West +265
NFC West +290
NFC North +525
AFC North +950
NFC South + 1050
AFC East +1200
AFC South +2500
NFC East +2500

#4) Name six teams that will not make the playoffs (all six must be correct). -130

#5) Name three teams that will win their division (all three must be correct). -120

#6) Name four teams that will win their division (all four must be correct). +160

#7) Will a Head Coach be fired before the start of Week 17?
Yes -330
No +250

#8) Will the largest point spread of the season by OVER or UNDER 17.25 (as per goldsheet.com)?
OVER 17.25 -120
UNDER 17.25 -110

#9) Will the average number of total points scored in 2009 regular season games be OVER or UNDER 44.06 (i.e., last year’s average)?
OVER 44.06 -105
UNDER 44.06 -125

#10) Will the number of TD Passes thrown by LaDanian Tomlinson be OVER or UNDER 0.5?
OVER 0.5 -105
UNDER 0.5 -135

#11) Who will win the AFC East?
New England -450
New York Jets +800
Miami +800
Buffalo +900

#12) Who will win the AFC North?
Pittsburgh -250
Baltimore +300
Cincinnati +900
Cleveland +1200

#13) Who will win the AFC South?
Indianapolis +140
Tennessee +250
Houston +350
Jacksonville +400

#14) Who will win the AFC West?
San Diego -350
Denver +450
Kansas City +800
Oakland +1000

#15) Who will win the NFC East?
New York Giants +165
Dallas +275
Washington +600

#16) Who will win the NFC North?
Minnesota +160
Chicago +170
Green Bay +220
Detroit +1400

#17 Who will win the NFC South?
New Orleans +190
Atlanta +220
Carolina +230
Tampa Bay +500

#18) Who will win the NFC West?
Arizona +140
Seattle +210
San Francisco +240
St. Louis +1100

#19) Who will have the most passing yards in the NFL?
Drew Brees +225
Kurt Warner +700
Peyton Manning +700
Aaron Rodgers +1400
Phillip Rivers +1400
Tony Romo +1600
Matt Ryan +1800
Eli Manning +4000
Matt Hasselbeck +5000
Matt Cassell +5000
Any Other +250

#20) Who will have the most rushing yards in the NFL?
Michael Turner +450
DeAngelo Williams +800
Clinton Portis +1200
Steve Slaton +1400
Maurice Jones-Drew +1500
Chris Johnson +1600
Brandon Jacobs +2000
Matt Forte +2500
Ronnie Brown +3500
Marion Barber +3500
Derrick Ward +5000
Any Other +150

#21) Who will have the most receiving yards in the NFL?
Andre Johnson +500
Larry Fitzgerald +600
Reggie Wayne +700
Steve Smith +700
Randy Moss +800
Calvin Johnson +1000
Greg Jennings +1400
Marques Colston +1600
Roddy White +1600
Dwayne Bowe +1800
Wes Welker +2000
Braylon Edwards +3000
Santonio Holmes +3000
Any Other +100

#22) Which player will record the most sacks?
DeMarcus Ware +500
Joey Porter +600
John Abraham +700
James Harrison +900
Jared Allen +900
Julius Peppers +900
Justin Tuck +900
Mario Williams +900
Osi Umenyiora +900
Shawne Merriman +1200
Dwight Freeney +1400
Trent Cole +1800
Mathias Kiwanuka +3000
Terrell Suggs +3000
Any Other -200

#23) Which team will win the most regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)
New England +195
Pittsburgh +240
Indianapolis +270
New York Giants +450
San Diego +500
Tennessee +600
Dallas +600
Minnesota +680
Chicago +750
Arizona +800
Jacksonville +1000
Any Other +100

#24) Which team will win the fewest regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)
Detroit +150
Oakland +250
St. Louis +300
Kansas City +300
San Francisco +375
Cleveland +375
Tampa Bay +500
Denver +500
Cincinnati +600
New York Jets +600
Buffalo +700
Houston +825
Seattle +850
Jacksonville +1000
Any Other -110

#25) How many regular season games will the New England Patriots win?
16 +2500
15 +800
14 +500
13 +450
12 +450
11 +450
10 +600
9 +1000
8 +1800
< 8 +1500

#26) Which team will score more points during the regular season?
New England -125
New Orleans +105

#27) Which team will score more points during the regular season?
New York Giants -115

#28) Which team will score more points during the regular season?
Detroit -130
Oakland +100

#29) Which team will win more regular season games?
Pittsburgh -2, -110
Arizona +2, -120

#30) Which team will win more regular season games?
Chicago -2, -135
Denver +2, +105

#31) Which team will win more regular season games?
New England -7, -125
Detroit +7, -110

#32) Which player will throw more TD passes?
Peyton Manning -6.5, -115
Eli Manning +6.5, -115

#33) Which player will throw more TD passes?
Matt Cassel +5.5, -115

#34) Which player will throw more TD passes?
Drew Brees -2.5, -115
Philip Rivers +2.5, -115

#35) Which QB drafted in 2004 will throw for the most yards?
Philip Rivers -195
Eli Manning +480
Ben Roethlisberger +515
Matt Schaub +950
Any Other +10000

#36) Who will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Knowshon Moreno +150
Chris Wells +250
Donald Brown +500
Mark Sanchez +700
Matthew Stafford +800
Percy Harvin +1000
LeSean McCoy +1200
Michael Crabtree +1300
Shonn Green +1400
Josh Freeman +1400
Jeremy Macklin +1800
Hakeem Nicks +1800
Darrius Heyward-Bay +1800
Andre Brown +2000
Brian Robiskie +2000
Kenny Britt +2000
Mike Thomas +2500
Pat White +3000
Mohamed Massaquoi +3000
Brandon Pettigrew +3000
Any Other +500

#37) Who will be the Defensive Rookie of the Year?
Aaron Curry +500
Tyson Jackson +700
B.J. Raji +700
Rey Maualuga +1000
Brian Arakpo +1000
Peria Jerry +1000
Robert Ayers +1200
Brian Cushing +1200
Clay Matthews +1200
Larry English +1500
Aaron Maybin +1500
Everette Brown +1600
David Verkune +2000
Roy Miller +2000
Sen’Derrick Marks +2000
Ron Brace +2500
Evander Hood +2500
Malcolm Jenkins +2500
Vontae Davis +3000
Clint Sintim +3500
Any Other +400

#38) Will the player who scores the most total fantasy points be a QB, RB, or WR, given the following settings: 25/10/10, 0.5 points per reception, Passing TD = 4 points, Rushing/Receiving TDs = 6 points, fumbles lost/interceptions = -2 points?
Quarterback -200
Running Back +150

#39) Which Defense/Special Teams will score the most fantasy points, given the settings detailed in this post (it’s pretty close to standard)?
Pittsburgh +500
NY Giants +550
Baltimore +600
Tennessee +700
Minnesota +740
Dallas +775
Chicago +800
Any Other +130

#40) Opening night, Tennessee @ Pittsburgh, who wins?
Tennessee +4.5, -115
Pittsburgh -4.5, -115

#41) Week 10, New England @ Indianapolis, who wins?
New England -2.5, -115
Indianapolis +2.5, -115

#42) What will be the average amount of “money” lost by the participants in this contest (not including money won or lost on this question)?
OVER \$1000 -120
UNDER \$1000 -120

Think I’ll make my homerish picks now and wait to bet smart on later picks

#4) Name six teams that will not make the playoffs (all six must be correct). -130
\$100 - Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Saint Louis Rams, Cleveland Browns

#16) Who will win the NFC North?
\$100 - Minnesota +160

#19) Who will have the most passing yards in the NFL?
\$100 - Aaron Rodgers +1400
\$100 - Phillip Rivers +1400

#20) Who will have the most rushing yards in the NFL?

#21) Who will have the most receiving yards in the NFL?
\$100 - Greg Jennings +1400
#24) Which team will win the fewest regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)
\$100 - Oakland +250

#26) Which team will score more points during the regular season?
\$100 - New Orleans +105

#27) Which team will score more points during the regular season?
#30) Which team will win more regular season games?
\$100 - Denver +2, +105

#34) Which player will throw more TD passes?
\$100 - Drew Brees -2.5, -115

#35) Which QB drafted in 2004 will throw for the most yards?
\$100 - Philip Rivers -195
#40) Opening night, Tennessee @ Pittsburgh, who wins?
\$400 - Tennessee +4.5, -115

#42) What will be the average amount of “money” lost by the participants in this contest (not including money won or lost on this question)?
\$100 - OVER \$1000 -120

An interesting situation could arise in #42 if so many people bet the over that it would make sense for VarlosZ to make the odds on the others easier so under wins.

This was fun, I think this adds up to \$5000.

#4) Name six teams that will not make the playoffs (all six must be correct). -130
\$300 - Detroit, Cleveland, Carolina, San Francisco, Denver, Washington

#12) Who will win the AFC North?
\$200 Baltimore +300

#16) Who will win the NFC North?
\$1000 - Chicago +170

#20) Who will have the most rushing yards in the NFL?
(Surprised no odds on Steven Jackson. Surely he has a better shot than Addai)

#21) Who will have the most receiving yards in the NFL?
\$200 - Reggie Wayne +700

#24) Which team will win the fewest regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)
\$200 - San Francisco +375
\$200 - Buffalo +700

#25) How many regular season games will the New England Patriots win?
\$200 - 14 +500

#32) Which player will throw more TD passes?
\$500 - Peyton Manning -6.5, -115

#33) Which player will throw more TD passes?
\$500 - Tom Brady -5.5, -115

#36) Who will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year?
\$200 - Percy Harvin +1000

#40) Opening night, Tennessee @ Pittsburgh, who wins?
\$500 - Tennessee +4.5, -115

#41) Week 10, New England @ Indianapolis, who wins?
\$500 - Indianapolis +2.5, -115

Stringer, note that the maximum wager is \$400. All bets over the limit will be rounded down to that amount. By my count, you have \$1,000 remaining with which to gamble (though you need not put it as risk, since you’ve nonetheless reached the \$4,000 minimum).

Heh, that hadn’t occurred to me. Let’s just say that it seems like an unlikely scenario, for one reason or another. . .

Yeah, it would be a really fine line to try to give enough money away without giving too much away.

#18) Who will win the NFC West?
\$200 - St. Louis +1100

#23) Which team will win the most regular season games?
\$400 - New England +195

#28) Which team will score more points during the regular season?
\$400 - Oakland +100

No sweeter words.

Up until today, I had no idea the etymology of “vig”. I’ve always paid it, I always called it vig, but never did I know the basis of the word. Learn something new every day.

\$100 on the NFC.

I can’t pass up the +810. \$100 on the NFC North.

Patriots, Chargers, Seahawks, Steelers. \$200

Hell yeah. \$330.

J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets. \$100.

Denver. \$100.

Packers. (HHHHOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMEEEERRRRRR!!!) \$200.

Carolina. \$200.

St. Louis. I like the odds. \$100.

MJD. \$100.

Dwayne Bowe \$100. Megatron \$100.

Raiders. \$200. Other. \$220.

Lions. \$260.

Pittsburgh. \$220.

Denver +2. \$400.

Can I bet “anyone but Josh Freeman”? Give me Maclin for \$100.

I’ll take Sintim as a longshot. \$100

Give me other. \$300.

At Indy. Gimme the Colts. \$200.

Over \$1000. \$120.

The way I total it, I’m currently betting \$3950. I’m saving that extra \$50 to take my wife out to dinner. Although if the odds are good, I’ll take her to McDonalds and put the other \$40 on the Packers. But I’m sick like that.

Ha! We could make this an annual tradition, Champ. You made the same exact mistake (invalid bet sizes) in last year’s contest. In fact, I added a clarifier about this in Rule 1 specifically because of your bet sheet last year. Remember, all wagers (i.e. the amount of money put at risk) must be in multiples of \$100, so your bets on Questions 7, 24, 28, 29, and 42 will be rounded **down **to the nearest hundred.

By my count you’ve now wagered \$3,800. Be sure to risk at least at least \$200 more, because the minimum total amount risked is \$4,000 this year. If you don’t risk the \$200, it will simply be removed from your bankroll.
Aside: the rule about bets being in multiples of \$100 is there to make it easier for me to calculate the results at the end of the year. Now, the particular way in which you’ve broken the rules would actually make it easier still for me to do the results (wouldn’t have to get out the calculator or anything). We’re locked into the rules from the OP for this year’s contest, but theoretically I could modify them to accommodate your bet sheets for next year. I doubt it’ll happen, however, because trying to explain in the Rules exactly what the relationship between your bet size and the odds should be when you’re laying (but not getting) odds would confuse the hell out of most people.

OTOH, maybe I’ll get bored at some point between now and then and build a spreadsheet to calculate results, in which case contestants could wager odd amounts that were specific to fractions of a penny without making my job any harder.

I’m in again this year. But like last, I’ll wait until closer to Week 1.

I decided to wait until closer to the start of last season to participate and then I went and totally forgot. We’ll see if I can avoid that fate this year.

ok, I can’t stay away for long
#3) Which division will have the worst cumulative record?
\$100 - AFC West +265
\$100 - NFC West +290
#17 Who will win the NFC South?
\$100 - Carolina +230
#24) Which team will win the fewest regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)
\$100 - St. Louis +300

#36) Who will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year?
\$100 - Mark Sanchez +700
\$100 - Matthew Stafford +800
\$2400 bet so far

ODDS REVISION #1 – 8/15, 9:01 AM EDT

No major changes, just a bunch of tweaks given the action to date, and Steven Jackson has been added to question #20 as per Stringer’s (implied) request. All questions whose odds have been modified are marked with an asterisk.
#1) Which conference will have a better record in inter-conference games?
AFC -185
NFC +155

#2) Which division will have the best cumulative record?
NFC East +300
AFC South +300
AFC East +575
AFC North +625
NFC South +625
NFC North +810
NFC West +3700
AFC West +3900

#3) Which division will have the worst cumulative record?
AFC West +265
NFC West +290
NFC North +525
AFC North +950
NFC South + 1050
AFC East +1200
AFC South +2500
NFC East +2500

#4) Name six teams that will not make the playoffs (all six must be correct). -130

#5) Name three teams that will win their division (all three must be correct). -120

#6) Name four teams that will win their division (all four must be correct). +160

#7) Will a Head Coach be fired before the start of Week 17?
Yes -330
No +250

#8) Will the largest point spread of the season by OVER or UNDER 17.25 (as per goldsheet.com)?
OVER 17.25 -120
UNDER 17.25 -110

#9) Will the average number of total points scored in 2009 regular season games be OVER or UNDER 44.06 (i.e., last year’s average)?
OVER 44.06 -105
UNDER 44.06 -125

#10) Will the number of TD Passes thrown by LaDanian Tomlinson be OVER or UNDER 0.5?
OVER 0.5 -105
UNDER 0.5 -135

#11) Who will win the AFC East?
New England -450
New York Jets +800
Miami +800
Buffalo +900

#12) Who will win the AFC North?
Pittsburgh -250
Baltimore +300
Cincinnati +900
Cleveland +1200

#13) Who will win the AFC South?
Indianapolis +140
Tennessee +250
Houston +350
Jacksonville +400

#14) Who will win the AFC West?
San Diego -350
Denver +450
Kansas City +800
Oakland +1000

#15) Who will win the NFC East?
New York Giants +165
Dallas +275
Washington +600

*#16) Who will win the NFC North?
Minnesota +160
Chicago +160
Green Bay +220
Detroit +1700

*#17 Who will win the NFC South?
New Orleans +200
Carolina +215
Atlanta +225
Tampa Bay +520

#18) Who will win the NFC West?
Arizona +140
Seattle +210
San Francisco +240
St. Louis +1100

#19) Who will have the most passing yards in the NFL?
Drew Brees +225
Kurt Warner +700
Peyton Manning +700
Aaron Rodgers +1400
Phillip Rivers +1400
Tony Romo +1600
Matt Ryan +1800
Eli Manning +4000
Matt Hasselbeck +5000
Matt Cassell +5000
Any Other +250

*#20) Who will have the most rushing yards in the NFL?
Michael Turner +460
DeAngelo Williams +815
Clinton Portis +1220
Steve Slaton +1420
Maurice Jones-Drew +1520
Chris Johnson +1600
Steven Jackson +1600
Brandon Jacobs +2000
Matt Forte +2500
Ronnie Brown +3500
Marion Barber +3500
Derrick Ward +5000
Any Other +155

#21) Who will have the most receiving yards in the NFL?
Andre Johnson +500
Larry Fitzgerald +600
Reggie Wayne +700
Steve Smith +700
Randy Moss +800
Calvin Johnson +1000
Greg Jennings +1400
Marques Colston +1600
Roddy White +1600
Dwayne Bowe +1800
Wes Welker +2000
Braylon Edwards +3000
Santonio Holmes +3000
Any Other +100

#22) Which player will record the most sacks?
DeMarcus Ware +500
Joey Porter +600
John Abraham +700
James Harrison +900
Jared Allen +900
Julius Peppers +900
Justin Tuck +900
Mario Williams +900
Osi Umenyiora +900
Shawne Merriman +1200
Dwight Freeney +1400
Trent Cole +1800
Mathias Kiwanuka +3000
Terrell Suggs +3000
Any Other -200

#23) Which team will win the most regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)
New England +195
Pittsburgh +240
Indianapolis +270
New York Giants +450
San Diego +500
Tennessee +600
Dallas +600
Minnesota +680
Chicago +750
Arizona +800
Jacksonville +1000
Any Other +100

*#24) Which team will win the fewest regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)
Detroit +170
Oakland +230
St. Louis +300
Kansas City +300
San Francisco +355
Cleveland +375
Tampa Bay +500
Denver +500
Cincinnati +600
New York Jets +600
Buffalo +675
Houston +825
Seattle +850
Jacksonville +1000
Any Other -110

#25) How many regular season games will the New England Patriots win?
16 +2500
15 +800
14 +500
13 +450
12 +450
11 +450
10 +600
9 +1000
8 +1800
< 8 +1500

#26) Which team will score more points during the regular season?
New England -125
New Orleans +105

#27) Which team will score more points during the regular season?
New York Giants -115

*#28) Which team will score more points during the regular season?
Detroit -125
Oakland -105

#29) Which team will win more regular season games?
Pittsburgh -2, -110
Arizona +2, -120

*#30) Which team will win more regular season games?
Chicago -2, -130
Denver +2, +100

#31) Which team will win more regular season games?
New England -7, -125
Detroit +7, -110

*#32) Which player will throw more TD passes?
Peyton Manning -6.5, -120
Eli Manning +6.5, -110

*#33) Which player will throw more TD passes?
Matt Cassel +5.5, -110

#34) Which player will throw more TD passes?
Drew Brees -2.5, -115
Philip Rivers +2.5, -115

#35) Which QB drafted in 2004 will throw for the most yards?
Philip Rivers -195
Eli Manning +480
Ben Roethlisberger +515
Matt Schaub +950
Any Other +10000

#36) Who will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Knowshon Moreno +150
Chris Wells +250
Donald Brown +500
Mark Sanchez +700
Matthew Stafford +800
Percy Harvin +1000
LeSean McCoy +1200
Michael Crabtree +1300
Shonn Green +1400
Josh Freeman +1400
Jeremy Macklin +1800
Hakeem Nicks +1800
Darrius Heyward-Bay +1800
Andre Brown +2000
Brian Robiskie +2000
Kenny Britt +2000
Mike Thomas +2500
Pat White +3000
Mohamed Massaquoi +3000
Brandon Pettigrew +3000
Any Other +500

#37) Who will be the Defensive Rookie of the Year?
Aaron Curry +500
Tyson Jackson +700
B.J. Raji +700
Rey Maualuga +1000
Brian Arakpo +1000
Peria Jerry +1000
Robert Ayers +1200
Brian Cushing +1200
Clay Matthews +1200
Larry English +1500
Aaron Maybin +1500
Everette Brown +1600
David Verkune +2000
Roy Miller +2000
Sen’Derrick Marks +2000
Ron Brace +2500
Evander Hood +2500
Malcolm Jenkins +2500
Vontae Davis +3000
Clint Sintim +3500
Any Other +400

#38) Will the player who scores the most total fantasy points be a QB, RB, or WR, given the following settings: 25/10/10, 0.5 points per reception, Passing TD = 4 points, Rushing/Receiving TDs = 6 points, fumbles lost/interceptions = -2 points?
Quarterback -200
Running Back +150

*#39) Which Defense/Special Teams will score the most fantasy points, given the settings detailed in this post (it’s pretty close to standard)?
Pittsburgh +510
NY Giants +560
Baltimore +615
Tennessee +720
Minnesota +750
Dallas +790
Chicago +815
Any Other +120

*#40) Opening night, Tennessee @ Pittsburgh, who wins?
Tennessee +4.5, -125
Pittsburgh -4.5, -105

*#41) Week 10, New England @ Indianapolis, who wins?
New England -2.5, -105
Indianapolis +2.5, -125

#42) What will be the average amount of “money” lost by the participants in this contest (not including money won or lost on this question)?
OVER \$1000 -120
UNDER \$1000 -120

Wow, I’ve never seen that before. There was some database error wackiness and the post didn’t go through, so I tried sending it through a second time, but it told me that it was a duplicate post. So I check it out and, sure enough, my post has through in the thread, but the *forum *didn’t recognize it. As I type this, the thread hasn’t been bumped to Page 1, it says that there are 12 responses, and Taber’s is listed as being the most recent response. Crazy damn board.

So, anyway, >bump<.

ODDS REVISION #2 – 8/19, 6:59 AM EDT

Just updating the odds to reflect the Brett Favre signing. I’ve also added Favre as a longshot option for Question #19, and added a new question at the end (interestingly, I added the same exact question last year around this time). All questions whose odds have been modified since the last update are marked with an asterisk.
#1) Which conference will have a better record in inter-conference games?
AFC -185
NFC +155

• #2) Which division will have the best cumulative record?
NFC East +300
AFC South +300
AFC East +580
AFC North +630
NFC South +630
NFC North +750
NFC West +3700
AFC West +3900

*#3) Which division will have the worst cumulative record?
AFC West +250
NFC West +270
NFC North +575
AFC North +925
NFC South + 1030
AFC East +1175
AFC South +2500
NFC East +2500

#4) Name six teams that will not make the playoffs (all six must be correct). -130

#5) Name three teams that will win their division (all three must be correct). -120

#6) Name four teams that will win their division (all four must be correct). +160

#7) Will a Head Coach be fired before the start of Week 17?
Yes -330
No +250

#8) Will the largest point spread of the season by OVER or UNDER 17.25 (as per goldsheet.com)?
OVER 17.25 -120
UNDER 17.25 -110

#9) Will the average number of total points scored in 2009 regular season games be OVER or UNDER 44.06 (i.e., last year’s average)?
OVER 44.06 -105
UNDER 44.06 -125

#10) Will the number of TD Passes thrown by LaDanian Tomlinson be OVER or UNDER 0.5?
OVER 0.5 -105
UNDER 0.5 -135

#11) Who will win the AFC East?
New England -450
New York Jets +800
Miami +800
Buffalo +900

#12) Who will win the AFC North?
Pittsburgh -250
Baltimore +300
Cincinnati +900
Cleveland +1200

#13) Who will win the AFC South?
Indianapolis +140
Tennessee +250
Houston +350
Jacksonville +400

#14) Who will win the AFC West?
San Diego -350
Denver +450
Kansas City +800
Oakland +1000

#15) Who will win the NFC East?
New York Giants +165
Dallas +275
Washington +600

*#16) Who will win the NFC North?
Minnesota +150
Chicago +165
Green Bay +230
Detroit +1800

#17 Who will win the NFC South?
New Orleans +200
Carolina +215
Atlanta +225
Tampa Bay +520

#18) Who will win the NFC West?
Arizona +140
Seattle +210
San Francisco +240
St. Louis +1100

*#19) Who will have the most passing yards in the NFL?
Drew Brees +225
Kurt Warner +700
Peyton Manning +700
Aaron Rodgers +1400
Phillip Rivers +1400
Tony Romo +1600
Matt Ryan +1800
Eli Manning +4000
Brett Favre +4500
Matt Hasselbeck +5000
Matt Cassell +5000
Any Other +250

#20) Who will have the most rushing yards in the NFL?
Michael Turner +460
DeAngelo Williams +815
Clinton Portis +1220
Steve Slaton +1420
Maurice Jones-Drew +1520
Chris Johnson +1600
Steven Jackson +1600
Brandon Jacobs +2000
Matt Forte +2500
Ronnie Brown +3500
Marion Barber +3500
Derrick Ward +5000
Any Other +155

#21) Who will have the most receiving yards in the NFL?
Andre Johnson +500
Larry Fitzgerald +600
Reggie Wayne +700
Steve Smith +700
Randy Moss +800
Calvin Johnson +1000
Greg Jennings +1400
Marques Colston +1600
Roddy White +1600
Dwayne Bowe +1800
Wes Welker +2000
Braylon Edwards +3000
Santonio Holmes +3000
Any Other +100

#22) Which player will record the most sacks?
DeMarcus Ware +500
Joey Porter +600
John Abraham +700
James Harrison +900
Jared Allen +900
Julius Peppers +900
Justin Tuck +900
Mario Williams +900
Osi Umenyiora +900
Shawne Merriman +1200
Dwight Freeney +1400
Trent Cole +1800
Mathias Kiwanuka +3000
Terrell Suggs +3000
Any Other -200

*#23) Which team will win the most regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)
New England +195
Pittsburgh +240
Indianapolis +270
New York Giants +450
San Diego +500
Tennessee +600
Dallas +600
Minnesota +600
Chicago +750
Arizona +800
Jacksonville +1000
Any Other +100

#24) Which team will win the fewest regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)
Detroit +170
Oakland +230
St. Louis +300
Kansas City +300
San Francisco +355
Cleveland +375
Tampa Bay +500
Denver +500
Cincinnati +600
New York Jets +600
Buffalo +675
Houston +825
Seattle +850
Jacksonville +1000
Any Other -110

#25) How many regular season games will the New England Patriots win?
16 +2500
15 +800
14 +500
13 +450
12 +450
11 +450
10 +600
9 +1000
8 +1800
< 8 +1500

#26) Which team will score more points during the regular season?
New England -125
New Orleans +105

#27) Which team will score more points during the regular season?
New York Giants -115

#28) Which team will score more points during the regular season?
Detroit -125
Oakland -105

#29) Which team will win more regular season games?
Pittsburgh -2, -110
Arizona +2, -120

#30) Which team will win more regular season games?
Chicago -2, -130
Denver +2, +100

#31) Which team will win more regular season games?
New England -7, -125
Detroit +7, -110

#32) Which player will throw more TD passes?
Peyton Manning -6.5, -120
Eli Manning +6.5, -110

#33) Which player will throw more TD passes?
Matt Cassel +5.5, -110

#34) Which player will throw more TD passes?
Drew Brees -2.5, -115
Philip Rivers +2.5, -115

#35) Which QB drafted in 2004 will throw for the most yards?
Philip Rivers -195
Eli Manning +480
Ben Roethlisberger +515
Matt Schaub +950
Any Other +10000

#36) Who will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Knowshon Moreno +150
Chris Wells +250
Donald Brown +500
Mark Sanchez +700
Matthew Stafford +800
Percy Harvin +1000
LeSean McCoy +1200
Michael Crabtree +1300
Shonn Green +1400
Josh Freeman +1400
Jeremy Macklin +1800
Hakeem Nicks +1800
Darrius Heyward-Bay +1800
Andre Brown +2000
Brian Robiskie +2000
Kenny Britt +2000
Mike Thomas +2500
Pat White +3000
Mohamed Massaquoi +3000
Brandon Pettigrew +3000
Any Other +500

#37) Who will be the Defensive Rookie of the Year?
Aaron Curry +500
Tyson Jackson +700
B.J. Raji +700
Rey Maualuga +1000
Brian Arakpo +1000
Peria Jerry +1000
Robert Ayers +1200
Brian Cushing +1200
Clay Matthews +1200
Larry English +1500
Aaron Maybin +1500
Everette Brown +1600
David Verkune +2000
Roy Miller +2000
Sen’Derrick Marks +2000
Ron Brace +2500
Evander Hood +2500
Malcolm Jenkins +2500
Vontae Davis +3000
Clint Sintim +3500
Any Other +400

#38) Will the player who scores the most total fantasy points be a QB, RB, or WR, given the following settings: 25/10/10, 0.5 points per reception, Passing TD = 4 points, Rushing/Receiving TDs = 6 points, fumbles lost/interceptions = -2 points?
Quarterback -200
Running Back +150

#39) Which Defense/Special Teams will score the most fantasy points, given the settings detailed in this post (it’s pretty close to standard)?
Pittsburgh +510
NY Giants +560
Baltimore +615
Tennessee +720
Minnesota +750
Dallas +790
Chicago +815
Any Other +120

#40) Opening night, Tennessee @ Pittsburgh, who wins?
Tennessee +4.5, -125
Pittsburgh -4.5, -105

#41) Week 10, New England @ Indianapolis, who wins?
New England -2.5, -105
Indianapolis +2.5, -125

#42) What will be the average amount of “money” lost by the participants in this contest (not including money won or lost on this question)?
OVER \$1000 -120
UNDER \$1000 -120

*#43 Which Quarterback will throw for more yards?
Aaron Rodgers -400
Brett Favre +300

#7) Will a Head Coach be fired before the start of Week 17?
\$400-Yes -330
#8) Will the largest point spread of the season by OVER or UNDER 17.25 (as per goldsheet.com)?
\$400-OVER 17.25 -120

#11) Who will win the AFC East?

\$400-Miami +800

#14) Who will win the AFC West?

\$400-Oakland +1000

#18) Who will win the NFC West?

\$400-St. Louis +1100

#20) Who will have the most rushing yards in the NFL?
\$400-Steven Jackson +1600

#22) Which player will record the most sacks?

\$400-Mathias Kiwanuka +3000
#24) Which team will win the fewest regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)
\$400-Detroit +170
#25) How many regular season games will the New England Patriots win?

\$400-8 +1800

#36) Who will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year?

\$400-Pat White +3000

#4) Name six teams that will not make the playoffs (all six must be correct). -130
Oakland, Detroit, Jets, San Fran, Cleveland, Denver
Wager \$200

#5) Name three teams that will win their division (all three must be correct).
Chicago, Denver, New England
Wager \$200

#11) Who will win the AFC East?
New England -450
Wager \$300

#14) Who will win the AFC West?
San Diego -350
Wager \$300

#16) Who will win the NFC North?
Chicago +170
Wager \$100

#18) Who will win the NFC West?
Seattle +210
Wager \$100

*#19) Who will have the most passing yards in the NFL?
Drew Brees +225
Peyton Manning +700
Wager \$100 each

#20) Who will have the most rushing yards in the NFL?
Maurice Jones-Drew +1520
Wager \$100 each

Matt Forte +2500
Wager \$200

#21) Who will have the most receiving yards in the NFL?
Andre Johnson +500
Larry Fitzgerald +600
Randy Moss +800
Wager \$100 each

#22) Which player will record the most sacks?
Shawne Merriman +1200
Wager \$100 each

#23) Which team will win the most regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)
San Diego +500
Chicago +750
Jacksonville +1000
Wager \$200 each

#24) Which team will win the fewest regular season games? (In the event of a tie, all qualifying teams will pay out, including “Any Other.”)
San Francisco +375
Denver +500
New York Jets +600
Buffalo +700
Wager \$200 each

#30) Which team will win more regular season games?
Chicago -2, -130
Wager \$500

#32) Which player will throw more TD passes?
Peyton Manning -6.5, -120
Wager \$100

#33) Which player will throw more TD passes?
Wager \$200

#36) Who will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Mark Sanchez +700
LeSean McCoy +1200
Pat White +3000
Wager \$100 each

*#43 Which Quarterback will throw for more yards?
Aaron Rodgers -400
Wager \$200

Bet sheet #3

*#3) Which division will have the worst cumulative record?
\$300 - AFC West +250

#10) Will the number of TD Passes thrown by LaDanian Tomlinson be OVER or UNDER 0.5?
\$100 - UNDER 0.5 -135
#14) Who will win the AFC West?
\$400 - San Diego -350

*#19) Who will have the most passing yards in the NFL?