Welcome, friends, to the 2nd Annual SDMB NFL Prop Bet Extravaganza. (Last year’s contest.) Below are 42 proposition bets about the 2009 NFL regular season (a separate playoff version when the time comes is a possibility). Most of the wagers and odds are taken from various online sports books, but some are of my own design. For those who played last year, Rule #1 has been tweaked, there’s a note listed as rule 2a, and the cash prizes are now merely nominal, but otherwise the procedure is the same.
2008 Champion: **Hamlet
– You have $5000 with which to wager. You must put at least $4000 of it at risk. The minimum bet is $100, the maximum bet is $400, and all bets must be in multiples of $100 (so there are only four possible bet sizes). Within those limits, spread out your bets however you please.
– The odds will change from time to time, so it is extremely important that you scan the thread for the most recent odds before placing bets. Any post revising the odds will say so in BIG RED LETTERS at the top.
– You don’t have to make all your bets in one post, but can rather spread them out over up to three posts (i.e. “bet sheets”). If you do this, please clearly identify a 2nd or 3rd bet sheet as such.
– Make sure to list the odds and the question when placing a bet. Try not to stray too far from the following example:
#3) Which bird-themed team will finish with the best record?
$300 – Baltimore Ravens, +225
– The objective is to finish with the most money in your bankroll. 1st place wins $5 of real money, 2nd place wins $3, 3rd place wins $1.
Long-Form Rules & Instructions
– Vigorish is factored into the odds; in part, this is because I want to track my “winnings” as the bookmaker. Keep in mind that the severity of the vigorish will fluctuate from question to question.
– Every wager will have odds associated with it. The odds will be listed in “moneyline” (+/-) style. So, for example:
Will Andy Reid shave his mustache on or before December 31st, 2009?
In this case, a “Yes” wager of $100 will pay $1,200 if it wins, while betting “No” would require you to risk $1,500 in order to win $100. Note that some bets will involve a point spread or an Over/Under line in addition to the moneyline odds. If at any time you’re confused by the odds listed, please ask for a clarification.
– For some of the questions, the options will not be comprehensive. For reasons of space it’s just not practical to offer odds on, say, all 32 starting QBs, in which case I just listed most of the favorites, along with some other options I found interesting.
- Each contestant has $5,000 with which to gamble. The minimum wager is $100, the maximum wager is $400, and all wagers must be in multiples of $100 (so there are only four possible sizes for any given bet). At least 80% ($4,000) of the $5,000 bankroll must be put at risk.
Within those limits, players may make as few or as many bets as they wish, on whichever questions they choose. They may, if they desire, place more than one wager on a single question (e.g., wagering on both the Colts and the Jaguars to win the AFC South), but they may not exceed the $500 bet limit by this method (e.g. betting on the Colts to win the AFC South two separate times).
Note that all wagers are listing the amount of money that you are putting at risk, not the amount that you stand to win. So, in the example above, if you bet the maximum ($400) at odds of -1500 that Andy Reid would not shave his mustache, then you would be risking $400 in order to win $27.
If there’s a tie in a “Which X will finish the season with the most/fewest Y?” question, all of the qualifying options will pay out; this possibility will be factored into the odds.
2) As in the real world, the odds will change from time to time in response to both real world developments (e.g. injuries) and unbalanced wagering. Just like an actual sportsbook, I will seek to limit the degree to which my profits depend on particular outcomes. So, in the example above, if 90% of the early action came in on Andy Reid not shaving his mustache, I would probably alter the odds to make “Yes” a more attractive option.
Therefore, it is extremely important that you scan the thread for the latest odds before placing your wagers. When I change the odds, I will say so in BIG RED LETTERS at the top of a post listing the latest information for all wagers (not just the ones that have been altered). New odds will be posted as circumstances dictate, most likely once a week or so.
Naturally, changes in the odds only affect future wagers; once you place your bets, they are locked in at the odds that were current at the time of the wager.
2b) Since I can’t be at the computer 24/7 to change the odds, the house reserves
the right to retroactively void wagers on certain wagers which take place *after *an event which has a major, obvious impact on the probabilities involved, but *before *I’ve had a chance to modify the odds to reflect the new situation.
So, for example, if Philip Rivers completely blows out his knee tomorrow morning, don’t rush to hammer Questions 34 and 35 before I can post revised odds, since those questions will be retroactively declared to be off the board until the new odds are up.
There’s no penalty for this behavior, of course, and I’ll try to keep the threshold for invoking this rule fairly high. With luck it won’t be an issue at all (it wasn’t last year). If it does come up, however, it’s only likely to come up with Questions 10 and 26-35.
3) Each player may submit up to three “Bet Sheets” – that is, you don’t have to wager all of your $5,000 in one post, but may instead spread it out over two or three posts . This may be a useful option if you anticipate the odds moving in one direction or another and want to lock in one set of odds while waiting for others to become more favorable.
Players may “add on” to a previous wager so long as the combined amount does not exceed the $500 limit. Players may also bet opposing sides of a given wager, either because they want to take advantage of changes in the odds, or simply because they’ve had a change of heart and want to “buy back” a previous bet.
Any player submitting a second or third Bet Sheet must clearly identify it as such at the top their post. Players are responsible for keeping track of how much money they have left to risk. Any player who accidentally wagers more than $5,000 will have his or her most profitable bets voided until the total amount risked is back within the limit.
4) All bets are final – once you can no longer edit your post, you can no longer edit your wagers.
5) Format: Deviations from the proper format for listing wagers will not be penalized so long as the particulars of the wager are clearly discernible, but try to stick to the following boilerplate:
$Wager Amount – Answer, Odds
#3) Which bird-themed team will finish with the best record?
$300 – Baltimore Ravens, +350
. . . Or, for multiple wagers on the same question:
#7) Which QB will throw for the most yards?
$400 – Peyton Manning, +700
$100 – Matt Cassel, +5000
6) Deadline: All Bet Sheets must be posted no later than Thursday, September 10th, at 8:30 PM EDT. Results will be announced after the announcement of offensive and defensive rookies of the year, which takes place a few days after the last Sunday of the regular season.
7) Prizes: The aim of the contest is to finish with the most money. 1st Place wins $5, 2nd Place wins $3, 3rd Place wins $1.
The initial odds will be listed below. Good luck everyone!