Welcome, friends, to the 1st Annual SDMB NFL Prop Bet Extravaganza! Below are 31 proposition bets and/or futures bets about the 2008 NFL regular season (a separate playoff version when the time comes is a possibility). Most of the wagers and odds are taken from various online sports books, but some are of my own design.
Notes:
– Vigorish is factored into the odds; in part, this is because I want to track my “winnings” as the bookmaker. Keep in mind that the vigorish will not be the same size for all wagers.
– Every wager will have odds associated with it. The odds will be listed in “moneyline” (+/-) style. So, for example:
Will Andy Reid shave his mustache on or before December 31st, 2008?
Yes +1200
No -1500
In this case, a “Yes” wager of $100 will pay $1,200 if it wins, while betting “No” requires you to risk $1,500 in order to win $100. Note that some bets will involve a point spread or an Over/Under line in addition to the moneyline odds. If at any time you’re confused by the odds listed, please ask for a clarification.
– For some of the questions, the options will not be comprehensive. For reasons of space it’s just not practical to offer odds on, say, all 32 starting QBs, in which case I just picked the options I found most interesting.
RULES:
- Each contestant has $5,000 with which to gamble. The minimum wager is $100, the maximum wager is $500, and all wagers must be in multiples of $100 (so there are only five possible sizes for any given bet). At least 60% ($3,000) of the $5,000 bankroll must be put at risk.
Within those limits, players may make as few or as many bets as they wish, on whichever questions they choose. They may, if they desire, place more than one wager on a single question (e.g., wagering on both the Colts and the Jaguars to win the AFC South), but they may not exceed the $500 bet limit by this method (e.g. betting on the Colts to win the AFC South two separate times).
If there’s a tie in a “Which X will finish the season with the most/fewest Y?” question, both of the qualifying options will pay out; this possibility will be factored into the vigorish.
2) As in the real world, the odds will change from time to time in response to both real world developments (e.g. injuries) and unbalanced wagering. Just like an actual sportsbook, I will seek to limit the degree to which my profits depend on particular outcomes. So, in the example above, if 90% of the early action came in on Andy Reid not shaving his mustache, I would probably alter the odds to make “Yes” a more attractive option.
Therefore, it is extremely important that you scan the thread for the latest odds before placing your wagers. When I change the odds, I will say so in BIG RED LETTERS at the top of a post listing the latest information for all wagers (not just the ones that have been altered). In all likelihood, new odds will be posted every 4-8 days, roughly.
Naturally, changes in the odds only affect future wagers; once you place your bets, they are locked in at the odds that were current at the time of the wager.
3) Each player may submit up to three “Bet Sheets” – that is, you don’t have to wager all of your $5,000 in one post, but may instead spread it out over two or three posts . This may be a useful option if you anticipate the odds moving in one direction or another and want to lock in one set of odds while waiting for others to become more favorable.
Players may “add on” to a previous wager so long as the combined amount does not exceed the $500 limit. Players may also bet opposing sides of a given wager, either because they want to take advantage of changes in the odds, or simply because they’ve had a change of heart and want to “buy back” a previous bet.
Any player submitting a second or third Bet Sheet must clearly identify it as such at the top their post. Players are responsible for keeping track of how much money they have left to risk. Any player who accidentally wagers more than $5,000 will have his or her most profitable bets voided until the total amount risked is back within the limit.
4) All bets are final – once you can no longer edit your post, you can no longer edit your wagers.
5) Format: Deviations from the proper format for listing wagers will not be penalized so long as the particulars of the wager are clearly discernible, but try to stick to the following boilerplate:
Question#) Question
$Wager Amount – Answer, Odds
Sample:
#3) Which bird-themed team will finish with the best record?
$300 – Baltimore Ravens, +225
. . . Or, for multiple wagers on the same question:
#7) Which QB will throw for the most yards?
$500 – Peyton Manning, +400
$100 – Jason Campbell, +5000
6) Deadline: All Bet Sheets must be posted no later than Thursday, September 4th, at 7:00 PM EST.
7) Prizes: The aim of the contest is to finish with the most money. 1st Place wins $40, 2nd Place wins $20, 3rd Place wins $10. Anyone who wants to donate $5 to the contest to help pay for the prize pool is welcome to do so, but donations are not expected (let alone required). If donations were to somehow exceed the prize pool, I would increase the prizes by 50% (so that I can’t theoretically turn a profit).
The initial odds will be listed below. Good luck everyone!
