2009 SDMB Fantasy Baseball

The Game Room
81

Having the first pick in a serpentine draft like this one is interesting – you know you’re going to get your guy in the first spot, but after that you’re having to plan for two picks at a time 30+ spots later in each round. Obviously, I’m happy with Ramirez. Youkilis has more value in this league, with OBP and SLG taking the place of BA, than in most others, so I don’t regret that one, and while McCann might have been a bit early, catcher is a position that drops off quite a bit after the first half-dozen or so guys and I didn’t think I could risk waiting – as it happens, Martinez would have been available, but there was no guarantee of that.

Also didn’t think I could risk not taking an outfielder as one of the next two picks, and Ordonez seemed like the best option left in the fourth round. I always end up hurting for saves, so I felt compelled to take Rivera in the fifth. I’d usually have taken a starter by that point, but with two picks in a row I decided to go ahead and pull the trigger on Ludwick as well – I have a tendency to skimp on power and there was less of it left than I thought at that point. Lowe seemed like the best SP candidate left then, and I really couldn’t go much longer without someone for the rotation.

Next pass through, I still felt like another OF and another SP were called for; Zambrano was a pretty clear choice. Cruz was a gamble, but if he puts up the numbers he showed he’s capable of at the end of last year, I’ll be pretty happy with it. Next couple of rounds were strictly about filling in the rest of the infield (Lopez and Guillen) and outfield (Matsui) with guys who’re likely to get a reasonable amount of playing time – but Matsui’s not guaranteed a starting spot, especially since he’ll likely be DH’ing at the beginning of the season and the Yanks may need to slot Posada or Rodriguez into that role instead. That was probably the biggest mistake I made to that point, and maybe of the whole draft. Garza seems to have a ton of upside potential, but may have been a bit of a stretch there – but anyone else that was available there was also either an injury or age risk or an unproven guy with potential; there was no compelling choice for another SP by that point.

Maine was mainly (you should pardon the pun) about filling out the rotation; Suzuki seemed too good to pass on at that point as insurance for the catcher slot. Hudson I took largely because I had only one 2B-eligible guy to that point, and Dickerson because I needed somebody CF-eligible; Hudson may have to fight for playing time, and isn’t going to help in power categories or steals but his OBP is likely to be higher than the other guys I might have taken, and it’s not like I’m planning to start him most of the time. Dickerson seemed worth taking a flyer on – if his OBP/SLG and steals end up being anything close to what his 30-game stint last year suggests, I’ll be pretty content with that for an 18th round pick.

Hairston was all about positional flexibility, but was probably too early – just wasn’t seeing much else beyond him that I could get any more excited about.

With holds counting in this league, it was just too hard to ignore Thornton and Downs still being out there at rounds 17 and 20. Both are going to help with the rate stats also, and Thornton gets a reasonable number of Ks/IP.

Not expecting a whole lot from Blake or Anderson, but both should play pretty regularly (at least against RHP in the case of Anderson) and do what they usually do; if I get a handful of HR out of each and they don’t tank my rate stats, I’ll be satisfied.

Thames? Well, hell. I always end up short of HR, so I figured why leave a guy who hit 25 last year on the board in round 23, even if he’ll be a negative quantity in OBP. Just have to deploy him judiciously.

Gallagher’s a guy a lot of the experts seem to be high on as a deep sleeper. I skimped on pitching this year, at least by my standards, and anyway you figure with the 24th round pick (and the last pick of the draft) you’re not really committing yourself to anything you can try to fix from the waiver wire if it doesn’t work out.

82

What the heck, it’s lunch time…

My Cousin A-Rod

  1. (2) Albert Pujols - seemed to be a no-brainer once Han-Ram was off the board. Reyes, although great, isn’t as good in as many categories as Albert. The only other consideration was David Wright, but really, how can you argue with Pujols’s rate stats?
  2. (31) Justin Morneau - this was the first (but not the last) time that The Cougars’ autodraft settings took the player I wanted, in this case Brandon Phillips. Morneau was an easy fall back though, even if I was a little nervous with doubling up on 1B so soon. Although with the added IF spot in this league that’s not so big a deal.
  3. (34) Curtis Granderson - this may be a little high, but I really wanted Granderson, and I knew there was zero chance of him coming back to me, of course. One of the downsides of picking at the start or end of the round. I think Granderson will build on last year and provide value in all categories. I did think briefly of Carl Crawford or Peavy here. I’ve owned Crawford too many times in other leagues, and I decided to build on my offensive strength instead of starting on SPs.
  4. (63) Chipper Jones - I know, odds are he’ll get hurt again, and no way he puts up the same sick rate stats as he had last year. But I still think he’s good value at this spot. I’ll hope for 4 1/2 months of health and a .950 OPS.
  5. (66) Joe Nathan - Not sure of the wisdom of this. I was toying with either Mariano or Nathan at the last pick, and when rackensack took Rivera I thought I’d grab Nathan. Probably would have been better off grabbing Furcal or Uggla here, and getting a lower rated closer eight to ten rounds later. It’s hard to dislike Nathan’s consistency though - him, Rivera and Papelbon are the only absolute sure things at closer in my mind (Soria’s close).
  6. (95) Rich Harden - well, here’s the downside to going offense and a closer with the first five picks - my ace starting pitcher is a huge injury risk. Well, if he’s healthy, he has the talent to be one of the best in the game. And with Chicago’s offense behind him, wins should come. If If If If If.
  7. (98) Vernon Wells - Did I really need to go with the Vernon Wells rollercoaster again? I remember I almost took Michael Young instead - but I had several other SS on my queue and I thought one would get back to me. Well, I was wrong there, as playing chicken on a SS began to be a theme of the middle rounds for me. Wells obviously has potential - here’s hoping that he gets most of the way back to his 2006 peak.
  8. (127) Yovani Gallardo &
  9. (130) David Price - I knew I was going to go back to back on starters here. I had a couple of ways I could have gone - Zambrano and Cain were choices, but I’ve never owned Zambrano and seem to always own Cain. I figured I’d go for the top potential out there. Gallardo certainly qualifies - hopefully he’s over the injury completely. Price may have been a mistake, but again, hard to argue with his talent. The player I completely forgot about, and should have taken, is Zach Grienke.
  10. (159) 	Shin-Soo Choo - at this point, looking to get the corner outfielders or middle infielders I was missing. Choo's a popular break out candidate, and seemed good value here. 

  11. (162) 	Elijah Dukes - well, I wanted Milton Bradley and he got taken in the previous round, so let's go for another head case! Great when he played, he's got a ton of potential to break out. I remember thinking at this point, I really should take Ricky Nolasco... ah well, he went with the next pick. Still no middle IFs at this point, but I feel great about my OF. 

  12. (191) 	Troy Glaus - a bit of a panic pick, as I had my heart set on Jorge Posada, who went two picks before to the Isotopes. I remember looking through my options at 2B, SS and C, which were my holes at this point, and none of them appealing to me. Needless to say, I didn't know Glaus was hurt and out till... April? May? June? seems unclear at this point. 

  13. (194) 	Jered Weaver - I had three SS options I was considering at this point - Escobar, Greene and OC, and I guessed that one of them would make it back to me, but that was not to be.... wanted a fourth starter, I really like Weaver this year, but probably should have taken the more dependable Ted Lilly.

  14. (223) 	Matt Lindstrom - I think he's the Marlins closer? If not he'll be solid at holds, but I'm hoping I'm right that he's the closer.... 

  15. (226) 	Plácido Polanco - had to address one of the holes I had at C/SS/2B. Polanco was clearly the best option at 2B so I went that way.

  16. (255) 	Jonathan Sánchez - ran out of time here. Gil Meche and Kelly Shoppach were what I was hoping to get with this set up picks, but both went two or three picks before this. Don't get me wrong, I like Sanchez, but he would have been available three or four rounds later, and if I wanted a strikeout pitcher, Oliver Perez was still available.

  17. (258) 	Chris Pérez - sounds like he's behind Jason Motte for the closing job right now. Still think he'll wind up with the closer job in St Louis before mid-season. And his peripherals are great.

  18. (287) 	Brian Bruney - couldn't pass up on the guy who should be the Yankees main setup guy at this point. Of course, last year, the supposed Yankees main setup guy going in to the season was Kyle Farnsworth....

  19. (290) 	A.J. Pierzynski - an old familiar safety net at catcher. In retrospect I would have been better served by taking Mike Pelfrey and getting Saltalamacchia in the next round, but I didn't think he'd last.

  20. (319) 	Luke Scott - I have no idea if he'll be getting playing time. 

  21. (322) 	Juan Cruz - great peripherals, I have no idea what his role will be. 

  22. (351) 	Brandon Wood & 

  23. (354) 	Marco Scutaro - my desparation duo at SS. One of these years Brandon Wood may hit at the major league level, and he's having a good spring (again). Meanwhile, Scutaro is a tolerable backup plan. Needless to say, I'll be looking for SS breakout candidates on the waiver wire....

  24. (383) 	Todd Wellemeyer - sad to say when your last round pick may be the most dependable SP on your roster....

Well, all in all, a couple of picks I’m not happy with (Glaus, Sanchez), some that make me nervous (Wells, Scott), and some fliers in the late rounds. But I’m happier then I’ve been in years with my offensive core here - I really should be near the top of the five offensive categories besides steals. My young pitchers will make or break me.

83

Thanks rackensack.

  1. Chase Utley

With Utley apparantly healthy, he moved back into my top ten. I was pleased to grab him at 11th.

  1. Prince Fielder

With Beltran and Linecum still on the board I was excited about my round 2 choice. Unfortunately they both went right before my choice. I chose Fielder over Ramirez, because I’d rather have the guy on the way up than the one heading the other way. I didn’t like taking a position that deep this early, but since each team can play 3 1b if they really wanted to, it wasn’t a huge deal.

  1. Vladimir Guerrero

I had system issues all draft constantly getting knocked off the applet. It didn’t really affect me too much, but this was one of two guys that I didn’t mean to take. At the time I probably would have grabbed Martin or Hamels, but in retrospect I’d go Dunn.

  1. Dan Haren

Earlier than I really wanted to grab a starter, but love Haren. Durable and the number say as good as he was last year, he still underachieved.

  1. Josh Beckett

Not a bad 1/2 punch. Good enough to allow me to ignore pitching for a whee bit.

  1. Matt Wieters

Was nervous when two catchers went right above me, but Pepper went Vazquez (another guy I really like.) If he comes up in early May, and is 75% of what BP thinks he will be, it is a good buy. And if BP is right…

  1. J.J. Hardy
    Wanted Marmol, the top reliever on my board, but he was taken just before, so I went to upgrade ss. It was between Hardy and Peralta as I didn’t want Jeter, and the drop after that was pretty large. Hardy had better rate stats, and I always get Peralta, so Hardy it was.

  2. Alex Gordon

Continued to fill in offensive holes. Gordon was at the hardest position left for me to fill, and had far greater upside than the alternatives.

  1. Mark DeRosa

I thought there was a mi position at the time. Even so I like having Derosa for his versatility. Last year I was doomed by requiring the waiver wire to fill in holes.

  1. Milton Bradley

Less than ideal given the fact I already had a rf, but he was the most talented guy left by a fair bit.

  1. Pat Burrell
    A strong bat for my other corner. Power I will not lack.

  2. Mike Cameron
    And a power/speed guy to complete my outfield. First guy I really took with any speed whatsoever.

  3. Billy Butler
    And Butler to complete my lineup. Another high upside play.

  4. Joey Devine
    Now that my lineup was done, it was probably time to take a third pitcher. Devine was the only guy left who will likely close, and has really good stuff.

  5. Hong-Chih Kuo
    Given the use of holds, I didn’t really value mp less than closers, which meant I had Kuo ranked really high. He was the top mr on my board, and probably a top ten reliever overall.

  6. J.P. Howell
    Again happy to take the dominate set-up man. It is not hard to find saves during the season, especially now that the league is less deep.

  7. Oliver Pérez
    Needed a third starter and that was about the best that was left. Not a huge fan.

  8. Fred Lewis
    I almost took him instead of Cameron the first time around. Surprised to see he was still on the board.

  9. Manny Parra
    A spot starter similar to Perez.

  10. Joe Saunders
    Part two of I didn’t want this guy.

  11. Matt LaPorta
    Luckily the guy I did want was available a round later. Should be a solid midseason upgrade over 1b, if, of, or util.

  12. Taylor Teagarden
    Needed a guy until Wieters is ready, though I’m not sure he starts the year in the majors either.

  13. Clay Buchholz
    With Penny, Smoltz, and Wakefield as the competition, he will get starts.

  14. Russell Branyan
    A three true outcomes all star to round things out.
    All in all I like my team. Short in saves and especially steals, but loaded everywhere else.

84

First of all, thanks rackensack for the round-by-round results. That is convenience.

Chitwood

  1. (5) Miguel Cabrera – This is who I wanted in this spot when I saw what pick I had. I guess Sizemore is an option there but I like the bashers if I can get them early, because I almost never get them later. I wee-weed away his 3B eligibility by taking a bunch more 1B/3B guys, but he really turned it on late last year and he’ll be just turning 26.

  2. (28) Nick Markakis – Very happy with Markakis, and happier that I went Cabrera over Sizemore. Steadily improving and already very good rate stats. Everybody likes him, and some people get out of hand with it, but I think it was a good spot for this pick. Pedroia was still around but come on, I don’t need to take a second baseman yet with all the value there will be later…

  3. (37) Brian Roberts – ah, shit. This was one of the few picks I made where I didn’t really have somebody ready. I vacillated between A-Rod and A. Ramirez but decided in the end that this was good value, especially since OBP up to this point is a semi-strength for me and the other 2Bs would hurt that. So I got my steals, and I’m reasonably happy with it.

  4. (60) Troy Tulowitzki – Had McLouth in my sights, with Hart just behind him (those two seem to be permanently conjoined in fantasy analysis), but after McLouth went, despite BP’s protestations to the contrary (they have him as the 6th best OF overall), I didn’t feel good about Hart’s hacking approach. Wasn’t crazy about my other options, not nuts about Victorino, didn’t want to start taking pitchers, so I took a low-OBP, bad-backed shortstop who doesn’t run coming off of a terrible year and has had a bad spring. But of course there is that .389/.469 second half, and I didn’t feel like I was passing on anything I was crazy about so I took a shot.

  5. (69) Garrett Atkins – Here’s where I start screwing up the value of my 3B-eligible first round pick

  6. (92) Aubrey Huff – and here’s where I keep screwing up the value of my 3B-eligible first round pick (but seriously, each of those guys is a good hitter who strengthened my power profile, but I had better options and just went with picks I wasn’t that invested in. Also Atkins is hurt. I kept telling myself I was going to take Ludwick and then my pick came around and I took Garrett Atkins. I don’t know. If he stops getting worse every year then it will be OK).

  7. (101) Cliff Lee – I was a little bit glad that Shields went right before my pick, because I knew he was the right value pick, but I kind of wanted to take Lee anyway. He doesn’t strike that many out but he had a really, really great year last year. Could have gone Felix, too, but I think Lee is going to be a big-innings ratio monster, and I like that as my first pitcher off the board.

  8. (124) Lastings Milledge – batting leadoff. I thought there were going to be a lot of really good value OFs in the middle rounds, and when Bruce went a bit early and then Upton in the next round, I thought it was time. Nelson Cruz didn’t get back around to me, so I’m glad I did.

  9. (133) Matt Cain

  10. (156) Max Scherzer

  11. (165) Brian Wilson

  12. (188) Mike González – I wasn’t in love with my options in these spots mostly, I wasn’t sure how what shape the draft would take scarcity-wise, and I knew that I didn’t have too much time before any position I hadn’t addressed became a near-punt. I jumped maybe too early on Scherzer and too late on closers, but at least I jumped. Cain was just a hopeful poke at some strikeouts once I had missed on the other real upside guys, and it’s a good thing since I then went for big Max.

  13. (197) Denard Span – it was him or Drew, and Drew went about two seconds after I clicked on the draft button for my pick of Span, which suggested something to me at the time. Still, I’m not sure I don’t really like this pick. He’s a young guy with a good approach who does a little of everything, kind of like my entire outfield at this point. How is this not the pick of the draft, someone tell me?? Oh, wait, I see. He doesn’t actually play.

  14. (220) Jason Motte – will be the closer, but even if not he’s apparently electric enough to be a really good piece.

  15. (229) Fausto Carmona – terrible pitcher. Young, though! Cueto and Ubaldo were gone so I just took a guy with a similar name.

  16. (252) Kelly Shoppach – I drafted this player to be my player at the catching position. Slugged it pretty good last year.

  17. (261) Travis Snider – will be a star some year that he isn’t on my team. Oh well, though. I’ll just keep drafting outfielders.

  18. (284) Kendry Morales – I’m not kidding, I’ll do it. Young outfielders with crazy potential, too.

  19. (293) Gary Sheffield – Ha! He’s actually having a good spring, though. He’ll probably end up my starter.

  20. (316) Jordan Zimmermann – I was happy to get one of my young pitching arms, especially this late. I doubt he’ll be much of an across-the-board contributor, but I have yet to hear anything but a rave review.

  21. (325) Taylor Buchholz – has become a very good reliever. I expect a good amount of holds and a few saves, plus good rates.

  22. (348) Skip Schumaker

  23. (357) Colby Rasmus

  24. (380) Brett Gardner – Seriously, I was going to just keep drafting outfielders. Some of these guys are going to have to be good. Also Schumaker is going to be a second basemen, so that won’t hurt. Gardner is an interesting case - he’s gotten on base consistently in the minors and can really run, plus he’s supposedly hitting very well in the spring. If he wins the job there’s no reason he can’t be a very good contributor, which is damn fine for that pick. But that’s if.

Overall, I feel like I screwed up pretty badly in the early-middle rounds. It’s an incoherent group, light on reliable arms, and heavy on question marks and potential. I should compete reasonably well in most hitting categories and probably in relief, but it’s definitely not a very polished product, even if I do think a lot of the individual parts have good value.

85

Thanks from me, too, for the lists, rackensack.

Well, because the Yahoo app seemed to take issue with Vista, or because of some other glitch I don’t know, I wound up being 15 minutes late for the draft and missing my first two picks.

I started the draft with a similar strategy as last year - decide which stats I want from which positions (in fact, I used the same criteria) and identify the best possible options. I have my formulas pretty much down, now, with just some minor tweaking. Although there may be something wrong with them - a lot of people were choosing guys who, by my calculation, weren’t as good as some of the other available options. But I LOVE LOVE LOVE the conditional formatting in Excel 2007, which updates as guys are taken so that the best available players (again, by my calculation) are always highlighted.

Unfortunately, my draft prep time was a little limited this year, what with having a ten-month-old and all. So I went into it knowing almost nothing about pitchers and not nearly as much as I wanted to know about the hitters.

1. (15) Jimmy Rollins
If I had been in the draft, Tim Lincecum would have been my first pick. I’m not exactly UNHAPPY with Rollins, but I’d have preferred Lincecum and would have been perfectly happy drafting Theriot somewhere around round nine.

2. (18) B.J. Upton
I said in my post above that Upton should have been the best 1B left on the board at the time, because it seems as though I ALWAYS wait too long for a 1B (see below). I see going through the draft results that…wow, there was quite a first-round run on 1Bs. I probably would have grabbed Prince Fielder here.

3. (47) Jake Peavy
I adjusted my strategy a bit from last year to get better pitching. Since I didn’t get Lincecum (mental note: next year, pre-rank at least the first bunch of guys even if I DO plan on being there), I’m reasonably pleased with Peavy - in fact, according to my formula, he’s actually a tiny bit better than Timmy - maybe not quite as many Ks, but a few more Ws, slightly better in ERA and about equal in WHIP. And, since it seems as though I ALWAYS punt Wins, maybe this is a better solution for me.

4. (50) Geovany Soto
I dunno what made me pick Soto here. Panic, mostly - I had only just gotten into the draft and didn’t realize that I was picking 15th, or that I was going to have to pick again almost immediately - I was frantically going through my spreadsheet eliminating the guys who’d were already gone. Soto is a 100% fit for me, though, so I’m not that upset about it. I should have grabbed Napoli, though. Even injured.

5. (79) Joakim Soria
I thought (wrongly) that there wouldn’t be many good options at closer by the time my pick came around next time, so I figured now was the time to pull the string. I do like to get a good closer reasonably early, though, and I’m very pleased with Soria.

6. (82) Jermaine Dye
What can I say? I needed to start looking at outfielders, and he was the best guy on the board right here.

7. (111) Brian Fuentes
Hey! Still semi-decent closers on the board! Let’s wrap up our saves right here and then we won’t have to worry about them!

8. (114) Adrián Béltre
I think I forgot at this point that I still needed a 1B. But, even if I’d remembered, I still would have wound up with Jacobs, and, if I’d picked Jacobs here, I wouldn’t have even gotten Encarnacion, much less Beltre.

9. (143) Mike Jacobs
I have hopes that Jacobs will do better than last year’s OBP, but, even if he doesn’t, I’ll sacrifice that for the 30+ homers and 100+ RBIs. After all, last year I wound up with Helton as my 1B (in round 6, mind you), and he’s really nothing BUT OBP.

10. (146) Rickie Weeks
I was kind of surprised that a guy who fits my 2B profile in all but one category (and only missed that one by one point) was still around. Which is one of the things that makes me question my criteria.

11. (175) Wandy Rodríguez
Should have been Brett Myers, but Munch grabbed him first. Pretty good value here, though.

12. (178) Jack Cust
Believe it or not, Cust was my 9th-rated LF. Of course, that means there are eight better ones out there.

13. (207) Adam LaRoche
Here I started filling in the holes. LaRoche isn’t so much a 1B as he is an IF for this team, but even as a backup 1B, this isn’t bad value here. I’ll take 25 homers as a backup.

14. (210) Cody Ross
Ditto, except OF instead of IF.

15. (239) Chris Snyder
I loved having Chris Snyder as my backup C last year – he was so good I had him plugged in at Util for a lot of the year. And, looking back, I see I drafted him in the 15th round last year, also. So, in this smaller league, maybe a round early, but, if not here, I’d have taken him three picks later, anyway.

16. (242) Jon Rauch
Figured it’s about time for some holds, and Rauch is a guy who can get them for me.

17. (271) George Sherrill
Hey! Still some saves available! What can I say - I’m a sucker for a save opportunity, which is why, in my keeper league, two of my five keepers are Soria and Papelbon. (Well, also the fact that most of my other players sucked last year). That said, Sherrill is by no means an elite closer, but he’s serviceable and, even if he winds up demoted (probably unlikely), he’ll get holds.

18. (274) Bob Howry
More holds. I went on an inexplicable RP run, but I think Howry’s a good option here.

19. (303) Alexi Casilla
Here’s where I started filling in the bench. Most of these guys are speculative. I like that Casilla plays every day, and I can use the odd stolen base.

20. (306) Elvis Andrus
Someone (MLB.com’s depth charts, actually) told me he’s starting. Yahoo tells me he’s not even available, much less starting. But I like his speed, and, while his OBP isn’t exactly stellar, it isn’t as though I’d have him playing every day, anyway. If he starts the season at AAA, I may hang onto him for a little while and see how the wind blows.

21. (335) Jody Gerut
Extremely speculative. Ron Shandler gave his reliability rating an FFF (health, consistency, and playing time). But IF he gets the playing time (and MLB.com says HE’S going to be starting also - however, see Andrus for how reliable their determination of that is), he’ll be good for OBP and a handful of HRs.

22. (338) Chad Durbin
More holds - pretty good value here for a reliable setup guy.

23. (367) Josh Anderson
I can’t even begin to imagine why I thought this was a good idea. It’s not like I needed anyone at CF, and he doesn’t even get notable stats.

24. (370) Andy Pettitte
What?! I only have TWO SPs, and Pettitte is the best guy left out there? GAH!

I like my pitching, mostly – I may exchange Josh Anderson for another SP, though, as I’ve kind of punted Ks and Wins (again), but I should fare very well indeed with saves, holds, ERA and WHIP. In fact, I’ve only got one pitcher I expect to have an ERA over 4, and that includes Pettitte. I kind of like my offense, too. I actually have some power for once. If my project stats are accurate (and they were pretty close last year) based on where the category totals fell in last year’s finishes, I hope to come in around 4th again. Of course, with fewer teams, everyone’s going to have higher counting stats, so the Whiners could be totally mediocre, or could downright suck.

86

Ace High Club Flush- Keep the EMTs handy.

1. (8) Josh Hamilton
A full season under his belt and an even better offense around him, I don’t see why ‘The Natural’ can’t go on to even improve on last years numbers. I just hope he avoids the HR Derby this year.

2. (25) Jason Bay
I’m excited to see what he can do with a full year in Fenway. I think he might be playing for a contract too.

3. (40) Matt Kemp
I like the speed with power, but reading this morning, reports of where he’ll actually be in the line up has me nervous.

4. (57) Chad Billingsley
A forced pick. In hindsight I would have been far better off flip-flopping my 3rd and 4th; grabbing a SP(Hamels, Haren, Peavy, Webb) first and then steals(Victorino). Drafting is so much easier the next day.

5. (72) Dan Uggla
Very happy with this one; got to love his consistent, big power numbers from the middle of the infield. Not a guy I usually target, but with OPS/SLG in and AVG out, he moved way up in my rankings.

6. (89) Joey Votto
Blotto for Votto! I think he will move up a tier(or two) in first base rankings by the end of the year.

7. (104) José Valverde
Solid closer with lots of Ks, what’s not to like? Usually I sit on closers, but I sensed a run on them coming. Might as well kick it off…

8. (121) Scott Kazmir
…and here I should have bookended it with Jenks or Broxton, especially in the deep league and with so many other SPs still on my queue. Given how the rest of my RP turned out, this could haunt me. Kaz is a guy I seem to end up with every draft, every year. I guess I keep doing it so I don’t miss out on the season I know he is capable of.

9. (136) Chris Iannetta
A good value, lots of upside catcher. I think he could end up being a real asset to my team in this league.

10. (153) Jorge Cantú
Health. As long as he stays healthy he should work out great. I’m nervous, but not unhappy about filling in my third base spot with him.

11. (168) Chris Carpenter
Health. He has been great in spring, a return to form would pay off with big dividends.

12. (185) Clint Barmes
Health. Seeing Felipe Lopez go immediately after my last pick really hurt; he was a big target of mine I was eying for SS the whole time. I panicked and reached on this one. Barmes is good if healthy and is having a good spring(should be the starting 2b), but that is a really big ‘if’. His flexibility makes him a great IF/bench player, but having him solidly locked in at SS has me reaching for the Tums.

13. (200) Coco Crisp
I’m certainly not going to be at the top of steals, but Coco should at least keep me from being at the bottom. Leading off in KC and not having to split with Ellsbury he could be a nice value here.

14. (217) Ubaldo Jiménez
Amazingly he actually pitches far better in Coors than away from it. He has great stuff and has had a nice spring. It was a little bit of a home town reach, but as long as I am careful with his starts, I welcome him in my rotation.

15. (232) Chris Ray
When I broke with my usual strategy and went after a closer early than usual, it ended up in me neglecting to follow up with my second. That said, I like Ray and think he should move full time into to the closer role soon while should provide some holds in the mean time. However he would have probably been around at least a round or two later, and having only half of a committee for my second closer puts me in a tough spot. I’m disappointed I let Kuo slip away from me like that.

16. (249) Mike Lowell
Well between him and Cantu I should probably hope for close to a full season combined. His bat is alive this spring, I just hope he can survive the field.

17. (264) Carlos Villanueva
I like his SP eligibility; he could close while Hoffman is out, or he could get holds, or he could completely blow up and not get anything.

18. (281) Randy Winn
One of the more underrated fantasy players. He quietly fills numbers across the board, while not really hurting you in others. He helps me in steals and I like that he qualifies for all three outfield spots(I only had one LF at this point).

19. (296) Kelvim Escobar
I think I am going to change my team to “Ow! My arm fell off!”. Escobar is like a poor mans Harden, he puts up really solid numbers on the really rare occasions he pitches. He starts my season on the DL, but is reportedly doing good in camp.

20. (313) Tommy Hanson
Maybe a little to high for a guy that has never thrown a major league pitch, but what I’ve heard about him this spring is really enticing and he has pretty much locked up a spot in the rotation. I’m hoping for more Tim Lincecum and less Phil Hughes

21. (328) Octavio Dotel
Needed holds. Was hoping for Buchholz, but I’ll take Dotel and his K’s.

22. (345) Ken Griffey Jr.
I told myself I wouldn’t pick The Kid and jinx him, but I just couldn’t resist the temptation extending Junior’s homecoming.

23. (360) Joel Zumaya
Needed another RP. I hope he get’s healthy in a hurry. A real boom or bust.

24. (377) Emmanuel Burriss
Hopefully some insurance for 2b,SS. Sounds like he is winning the 2b job in SF and looks like he might have some wheels.

~

For the most part I’m pretty happy with my team. I like the way my offense turned out, solid power up and the line. Though if Kemp moves down in the order and losses his steals, that could really hurt; right now its enough for H2H, but already kind of thin for Roto. My pitching scares the hell out of me. While I like my starters overall, each one carries a fair to large amount of risk. My bullpen I’d rather not think about right now, and am already circling the wire for.

87

(because I need a break right now)

**
Full draft analysis, part 1:**
First off - great draft everyone. Good chatter, nobody abusing their shot clock, etc. I think Yahoo really fumbled with their applet this year, and we forged through it (with a few regrettable exceptions).

Round 1
Yet again, I get cursed with a low pick. 12th is the highest I’ve ever drafted in this league, so I guess I can’t complain - but still, I’d have loved a chance at Hanley. There weren’t any reaches this round - you could maybe say Rollins or Longoria, but positional scarcity more than justifies those picks.
Best Pick: Hanley Ramirez - he just offers so much in a 6 category league.
Worst Pick: Jimmy Rollins - gotta name somebody. Other than runs (which were still down in '08), he doesn’t nail any one category. That’s the worst I can say, I guess.
Best Value: Grady Sizemore - sure, he was #6, but an argument could be made for 4 or 5.

Round 2
Still not a lot to get worked up about here. Several more 2Bs go off the board, but the majority are OFs. I went with more balance in Beltran, and think he should have gone much higher. I also think that Quentin needs to show another good season before being picked this high
Best Pick: Sabathia - if Lincecum went 7 picks earlier, then CC was a steal. He’ll get more wins, more Ks, and challenge in ratios.
Worst Pick: Upton - already going to start the season on the DL.
Best Value: Phillips - will offer much more than Pedroia will, possibly more than Kinsler.

Round 3
Lots of different strategies starting to form here. More top SPs, a closer, 2 catchers and some specialists. I don’t think I could justify taking a specialist this early in the draft - regardless of my Papelbon pick. Interesting to see Alex Rodriquez go this late - it looks really weird.
Best Pick: Russell Martin - just offers so much more than so many other catchers it’s sick.
Worst Pick: Ichiro - absolutely kills your slugging with all those singles and plate appearances. I saw some projections that have his OBP really low - but I’m not putting a lot of weight into that.
Best Value: A-Rod - if he returns soon, of course.

Round 4
I really like this round. Shows what people are going for. Kiros is going for the best pick available. Petelin is targeting specific categories. Others target balance, and others like to fill in scarce positions.
Best Pick: Chipper Jones - he’s going to miss 25 games because that’s what Larry does, but the other 137 games are excellent.
Worst Pick: Troy Tulowitzki - he’s a talent, but we don’t know how he’s going to come back from injury. There were better picks on the board.
Best Value: Adam Dunn - in this league, he should be a top 25 pick.

Round 5
Now we’re getting into the picks that make or break your team. Can you rely on the top young prospect? Can you take a power middle infielder and stay competitive in SBs? Do I go with an elite closer or another great SP? Me, I’m going with slightly overrated young talent, and take Jay Bruce.
Best Pick: Josh Beckett - not sure why he’s still on the board.
Worst Pick: Stephen Drew - not sure why he’s not still on the board after this pick.
Best Value: Brad Lidge - could outpace most of the closers taken ahead of him.

Round 6
Also known as the round everyone said to themselves “wow - there sure is a lot of top starting pitching still on the board”. It’s also the round in which I said, “wow - this draft applet just chopped off a good portion of the right side of the screen and now I can’t toggle between rosters and full draft. I hate it.”
Best Pick: Rich Harden - Every time I look at his numbers from last year, I try to justify it by saying, “Oh, it was only over 150 IP”. But still - that’s 150 IP of a 2.07 ERA and 1.06 WHIP!
Worst Pick: Aubrey Huff - not to say Huff isn’t good. He very well could be. He could also turn in another stinker. And there is a lot more 3B talent of similar quality with higher potential.
Best Value: Vazquez - I’m tooting my own horn again, but my palms aren’t hairy yet so I don’t care.

Parts 2-4 to come after work.

88

Quick question for those of you who had issues with the applet? Were you on a wireless connection of some kind? Every year a couple people have problems with it and I’ve never had the slightest issue. I’m using the same platform as most everyone else, but the only difference I see is that I’m always directly connected. I wonder if WiFi or Cellular connections cause issues with the streaming nature of the app.

89

In defense of the first two “worst” picks - they weren’t mine. They were the stupid computer’s.

Omni - I was on a hard-wired broadband connection. This is the first year I’ve had a problem - and my problem was related only to loading the app, which took forever, and I’ve got a pretty fast machine and connection. I figure it had something to do with Vista, as I’ve never tried to run the draft with it before. But once it was up and running, it was fine throughout the rest of the draft.

90

I was on a Vista laptop on Wifi and had no problems. Nor have I ever in probably seven or eight drafts with the new applet.

91

Believe it or not, I was on dialup… took me about 15 minutes to get the app to load, but once I was in, it went without a hitch. I was using Netscape Browser, which I find works best over dialup and with Yahoo’s apps. Even though it’s not supported anymore…

92

I had no problems whatever with the applet; on a WiFi connection but within 4 ft of the antenna. Mac OS X 10.5.6, Firefox 3.0.7.

93

Every year in this league I end up with one of the best hitting lineups in the league. I usually make great picks on hitters, loading up scarce positions early with first tier talent and getting youth with upside late. This all happens under the presumption that there’s plenty of pitching to be had in the draft and you can get spot starts and promoted closers in free agency as the season goes along. This is all probably true, but I’m just not a avid enough stats junkie to make this play. I only really watch the NL Central all season long and most the AL breakout performances are lost on me unless they make it on SportsCenter. So, with that in mind, I changed my strategy. I decided I’d load up on reliable pitching early and lock up the bull pen in the middle rounds. With luck I’ll be able to get by with a bare minimum of FA activity on the pitching side and I won’t have to play the matchups to precisely. Let’s go round by round:

1. (9) Mark Teixeira
I really feel lucky to get this pick. I have Tex as the 5th best player in the draft and he’s really going to get a boost on his numbers batting in that lineup, especially after A-Rod gets back. His only downside is that he’s a zero in steals, but he’s a legit threat to lead the AL in HRs, RBIs and Runs. It will be interesting to see how the new stadium plays though.

2. (24) Matt Holliday
It broke my heart to see Manny go right before this pick. I was shocked that he lasted as long as he did, so I probably shouldn’t have been as bitter as I was to see him go, but I had some fantasies of having 2 guys with 85 dingers and 300 Runs/RBIs combined. Regardless I’m pretty happy with Holliday here. He gives me those steals that pushed Sizemore, Han-Ram and Braun ahead of Tex and fills all the categories. I’m a little worried about him leaving Coors but his road splits were still very good and he’ll be playing in a poor division. Also, a trade to a contender is a strong possibility.

3. (41) Álex Rodríguez
This makes up for the Manny mishap a bit. A-Rod, assuming he’s back before June 1st, will be a horse for me as the 3rd pick at a thin 3B position. There’s a chance that the hip will sap his power but if he gives me 4 months of A-Rod like numbers I’m gold. He is more of a sure thing that Ortiz or Vlad who went just after him, so this is the right place to take him. So long as I get a strong backup 3B to fill in for him (more to come on that) I’ll benefit by being able to put him on the DL right away.

4. (56) Francisco Liriano
Here’s where the new strategy took shape. Liriano is a top flight starter still coming off an injury. I wish I could have had a guy I felt more confident in getting 200 innings from but in retrospect that guy doesn’t exist. The guys who have been horses in previous seasons are the ones who’ll probably break down this year. As I considered Sabathia, Hamels, Webb, Lincecum, Halladay etc. I became frightened by the fact that they’ve had 700+ innings of use over the last 3 years. At what point does a track record of reliability become a liability of overuse? I am reassured that Liriano’s overall numbers were hurt by the awful April before his trip to the DL and he had a lights out August and his post-All Star numbers looked like his 2006 numbers. In any case, I can’t complain about his value here.

5. (73) Félix Hernández
This guy is a continuation of my new philosophy. He’s basically a counter-point to Liriano in that he’s been reliable for 30 starts a year for the last 3. I wish he were on a better team that would bring me more Wins but the rest of his numbers are strong. He’s been great in the WBC so hopefully that translates to opening day. I was doubtful that he’d make it back to me and I almost took him over Liriano, so I feel great about his value. I like him way more than Beckett or the Closers who went in this round.

6. (88) Roy Oswalt
Gonna stick with the gameplan. I was shocked that Oswalt was still available. Look at his post All-Star numbers last season?!?! I had him on my team last year and gave up on him right when he pulled it all together. He’ll have to make it up to me this season. Having 3 great #1s really insures me if one of these guys goes down for the year. I shouldn’t have to worry about finding a sleeper in April at least. I don’t know why Vazquez went ahead of him based on nothing but big Ks.

7. (105) Carlos Mármol
This was when my strategy was almost derailed. I agonized over this pick for a while and was getting very nervous seeing the gaping holes that were developing in my lineup. It was helped by the fact that there wasn’t a bat out there who I really coveted here and the closers were looking really sparse. Luckily for me the rest of the league went SP crazy for the next few rounds so I was able to get those bats I needed later. I know Marmol was terrible in the WBC and might lose his job, but he’s got great stuff and will be no worse than the Set-up man. There’s more to this pick later, stay tuned.

8. (120) Andre Ethier
Since I knew I was going to have to be creative with my bats I developed a secondary concept for the middle rounds. I wanted to focus on guys with upside and balance who were hitting right before or after monster bats. Ethier is Exhibit A. He’s expected to hit cleanup behind Manny and he will be hitting with RISP constantly and he’s got great protection in Kemp behind him. He’s not a household name, but I bet he will be after this season. He had an OPS of like 1.150 and filled up every category after Manny came to town. Stand back!

9. (137) Rick Ankiel
This guy is going to RAKE! He’s Ethier v2.0. He’s going to hit cleanup behind Pujols and the guy can put up numbers in huge bunches. His numbers were solid last season and in some ways he’s still transitioning to a hitter so there’s every reason to expect him to improve his rate stats. If he stays on the field for 162 games I expect a 30/100/100 season from him. Oh, and did I mention he has CF eligibility? Yum!

10. (152) Mike Napoli
Catcher is a position I always try and get early. The position is so scarce in roto and the new strategy of favoring pitching had me expecting to be scraping the bottom of the barrel here. Last year I hit gold with Soto and this year I fell like I got a steal with Napoli this late. He’s got to get healthy, and reports are looking good, but if he comes close to his numbers for last season I’m going to be pumped. Supposedly he’s going to be used as a DH while he heals and that might get him more ABs on his off-days later in the season too. After him the drop-off at C was epic, so I was sweating as my pick approached and I had him queued.

11. (169) Felipe López
I don’t know very much about this guy I admit, but every expert’s column I read had him as a break-out candidate. I expected to take him but I had no feel for how long to wait. As I selected him there were groans throughout the chat so I suppose I guessed right. He is expected to lead-off in Arizona which is great and his rate stats looked great in the final 2 months last season. The biggest reason I decided to pull the trigger was that he qualifies all over the field and I was still empty at 2B, SS and needed a 3B for when A-Rod was hurt. I’m not sure if he will be a base stealing threat, but at the top of the order in AZ you have to think he might. I really could use some at this point.

12. (184) Kazuo Matsui
I really needed another MI and Kaz was the guy I liked best. The guy needs to stay on the field but if he does 30 steals seems like a certainty. He’s not going to kill my rate stats and this is where I don’t mind 1-cat specialists in a draft. The only question is if he’d have been here 2 or 3 rounds later.

13. (201) Khalil Greene
I was getting very scared about the shallow SS position and while Greene is no great shakes, the guys after him were downright pathetic. I had hoped Theriot would be my guy again this year but his stock was way to high. It will be interesting to see if Greene will get a boost in a new park with a strong lineup around him. He’s having a unbelievable Spring, it will be interesting to see where he hits. If they pencil him in the #2 spot ahead of Pujols it could be great. I really like him here and if the comeback player of the year hyperbole plays out I hit the jackpot.

14. (216) Kevin Gregg
This guy was absolutely crucial for my pitching strategy. I had him queued for about 10 rounds and almost drafted him instead of everyone listed after Ethier. I knew he’d last a little while but I didn’t think he’d make it this long and I feel really lucky. The guy supposedly has won the Closer job from Marmol and I thought the guys in this league would be all over him. He’s not a stud, but the Cubs will win a lot of games and he’ll get a lot of Saves or Holds. I knew the second I drafted Marmol I absolutely had to get Gregg to go with him. Between the two I’m going to lock up every single Save the Cubs get and most of the Holds, it essentially removes any risk there was in taking Marmol. Depending on what the Cubs do this year this guy might end up being the biggest pick of my draft.

15. (233) Josh Fields
I knew I needed a good 3B to go with A-Rod and while I was targeting all those MIs I knew I should be finding a 3B instead, but there just wasn’t one. I didn’t have Fields ranked at all and had completely forgotten that Crede vacated his position on the South Side. The Sox are counting on Fields to hit in the middle of their lineup and play every day and in Cactus league he’s been killing the ball. His defense has sucked, and he’ll have to improve in order to not lose playing time, but there’s every reason to think he’ll get every opportunity to succeed. I now feel great about my A-Rod pick and I feel like I have the flexibility in the middle of my infield to cover any one of these middle-round gambles if they collapse.

16. (248) Paul Maholm
Wow, I got a opening day starter who’s given up exactly one run in the entire Spring with the 248th pick. That’s insane. He pitched really well last season too, I really hope I’m not missing something here. He won’t win a lot of games in Pittsburgh, but I’m loving him as my 4th starter. I’ll be starting 4 #1s on opening day with this roster. The strategy was well executed.

17. (265) Jeff Francoeur
I had to find another OF and I had to settle for the turd of the 2008 Fantasy Season. Apparently he’s retooled his swing and has really cut down on Ks and increased Walks in the Spring so maybe there’s reason for optimism. I don’t mind hoping for a comeback year from a guy this late in the draft but the fact that I’m probably going to start him right away is troublesome. This is the biggest hole I have right now but good positional flexibility in the outfield means I can hide him if he sucks and kills my OBP. I better find a backup plan when I move A-Rod to the DL.

18. (280) Manuel Corpas
Giddy up! The pieces are falling into place on this pitching staff like Dr. Manhattan’s martian fortress. Manny Corpas is going to steal the Closer job in Colorado. He’s down 20 pounds and has shown great stuff in the preseason. Street is his competition and he’s not exactly the healthiest guy out there. I’m expecting terrific rate numbers from his away from Coors and he’ll either help with Holds or Saves depending on where he’s used. He’ll be a great compliment either way for the 2-headed Cubbie Monster.

19. (297) Mike Fontenot
Here’s this season’s Ryan Theriot. He won’t be sharing 2B with DeRosa any more and if he brings his .909 OPS to the plate 500 times this year I’ll be doing backflips for both the Cubbies and my Fantasy team. I might have a tough decision to make if Matsui and he both play well, Fontenot won’t be a huge base stealing threat but he’ll out hit Kaz. This would be a great problem to have.

20. (312) Mark Buehrle
He’s a nice veteran addition. No idea what to expect out of him this year, but I’ll be able to keep close tabs on him here in Chicago. I hope I don’t have to rely on him too much but if he pitches well I can plug him in when he’s facing a team who struggles with lefties.

21. (329) Jeff Samardzija
This guy serves two roles for me. First, he’s got the potential to develop into a lights out starter for the Cubs. He’s had stretches where he was simply unhittable, but then he’s had stretches where he struggled with his control. Typical for a young pitcher. Secondly and more likely, he will serve as extra insurance for the Marmol/Gregg tandem. If anyone is likely to take the set up role from them or to step in due to injury it’s Samardzija. Going into opening day I literally will have all the Cubs Saves and Holds locked up. I suppose diversity is usually the rule of the day with fantasy rosters, but in this league where Holds are featured I like this strategy a lot…assuming the Cubs win as many games as they should.

22. (344) Chris Duncan
I’m mostly picking him up to fill in if there’s an issue with Tex at 1B or Frenchy at OF. Duncan fell off the planet last season with a back issue. He’s had a titanium plate put in to repair it and so far it appears to be working. The guy is competing with Ankiel to hit cleanup and if he stays healthy could produce. The guy could be a complete bust with his injury issues, but I like the amount of upside he provides this late in the draft.

23. (361) Jamie Moyer
Who the hell knows when Moyer will finally quit. But I’ll be damned if I write him off. Like Beuhrle I hope I’m not relying on him too much, but if he has 15+ wins again and I pick the right spots he’ll be nifty.

24. (376) Trevor Cahill
This guy is supposed to be the next big thing out of Oakland and could win a position on the opening day roster. If not, it’s almost a certainty that he’ll be called up the first chance they need an arm. My other pitching prospects all went far too early for my liking so he’ll do.

All in all, I love my team. The Pitching is simply first rate. The starters are unquestionable. I’m a little light on Saves at first glance, but I’m counting on the one-team strategy to carry me into the middle of the pack. Whatever I get from Corpas will be gravy. I’ve got great bats at the top and I love the guys I found in the middle as well. There are plenty of question marks, but I don’t feel like I punted any categories and I created versatility so no one miss will cripple me. I’m not relying on one guy to carry any category and I’m not expecting to do any waiver wire scrambling on opening day. Overall the real risk will be if Greene, Duncan, Francoeur and Ankiel’s OBP from last year are for real. I’m counting on at least 2 of those guys to take a big step back to where they once were. I prefer that scenario to expecting it from a guy who has never done it before at least.

94

Part 2

Round 7
Wow - still tons of SP value left on the board. I think this is where I decided that “of course there will be players left in a few rounds”. Several very good SSs are taken - but now that I look at Peralta’s numbers, I worry about his value in this league. Maybe I just focus too much on OBP. Plus, it looks like Ankiel may need to punt the category, based on last year’s numbers.
Best Pick: Marmol - I love the guy. I loved him more last year when he slipped under the radar as a setup guy, but I love him.
Worst Pick: Ervin Santana - looks like he might be hurt.
Best Value: Cliff Lee

Round 8
Young and old in this round. I think there’s some fantastic value, and Upton is the centerpiece here. One of my draft day weaknesses is to look at guys I have high on my draft board, let them fall a round or two, and then keep them there thinking there’s something wrong with them. That’s what happened to me with Upton. Sandoval clearly could have waited.
Best Pick: Kazmir - it’s going to be a debate of who’s better, Shields or Kazmir. But Kazmir was the right pick here.
Worst Pick: Sandoval - way too early.
Best Value: Upton

Round 9
A lot more rookies here, some who’ve shown their ability to hit in the majors, others with just a lot of hype attached. Then we also have Delgado, who’s as unpredictable as my crazy aunt Kathy. Gotta think Price was taken early over Young, Cain and Greinke.
Best Pick: Edwin Encarnacion - just a solid producer last year, and getting better.
Worst Pick: Kendrick - he might win a batting title. But he hasn’t shown a lick of that talent in the majors so far. I was going to say Jacobs here, but he’s been tremendous in spring training.
Best Value: Iannetta - great sleeper pick this year.

Round 10
I really like several of these picks. Bradley’s a head case, but he’s a tremendous hitter. Greinke’s a top 10 talent, and if you can overlook a potentially low win count, won’t disappoint. Scherzer’s a talent as well, but probably a reach at this point.
Best Pick: Greinke - there’s no getting around how much the rest of us screwed up letting this one drop this far.
Worst Pick: Tejada - just because I worry about any distractions.
Best Value: Shin-Soo Choo - everyone probably had them on their watch list, and everyone was waiting for Round 11.

Round 11
Here’s several more players snatched off of my watch list. In fact, I think 5 players were taken from my list in this round, 6 if you include Wandy who was selected after my pick. I hate you all. Seriously - I hate you.
Best Pick: Pat Burrell - he’s Adam Dunn Lite, and he was taken 7 rounds and 118 picks later.
Worst Pick: Tavares - I just really don’t like specialists in this league.
Best Value: Pat Burrell - my only double pick
Most Potential: Dukes - potential to bust out, and potential to have to bust out of jail.
**
Round 12
Remember when Carlos Guillen was a SS? That was fun. I hate trying to fit players into new positional roles in my mind when they go from MI to CI. I automatically devalue them, even if they produced like a corner guy all along. Oh, and I have absolutely no idea who Jeff Bennett is.
Best Pick: Harang - round 12 is great for a pitcher with a great track record.
Worst Pick: Posada - he’s going to get about 1/2 playing time, do pretty mediocre, and people are still going to clamor over him because he hits behind that declining Yankees squad.
Best Value: Cust - Fanastic pick for this league.

95

Grab Your Ankiels

1. (16) Evan Longoria
2. (17) Carlos Quentin
Once I found out I was the last pick, I prayed one of these two would stay on the board. They were both slotted to go around pick 17, but you never know, and Longoria could’ve gone much sooner.
3. (48) Cole Hamels
I was targeting Webb or Peavy here, but they were taken right before. I forgot about his injury. Hopeful that it won’t be a season long issue.
4. (49) Alexei Ramírez
Gives me IF flexibility.
5. (80) Brad Lidge
I usually don’t go after saves this early. Honestly I was hoping to create a closer run, so I might get lucky next time around.
6. (81) Edinson Vólquez
7. (112) Jhonny Peralta
8. (113) Raúl Ibañez
I really liked Ibanez here, chance for a lot of RBI’s.
9. (144) Adam Wainwright
If healthy all season could be a 20 game winner.
10. (145) James Loney
11. (176) Clayton Kershaw
I was targeting Chris Carpenter here, hopefully Kershaw meets expectations.
12. (177) Jeff Bennett
I don’t know what to tell you. My computer froze as I was searching for a player, And he was on my board. My pick for worst in draft.
13. (208) Nick Swisher
I didn’t want anything to do with Swisher, but I needed to start filling out my OF.
14. (209) Gavin Floyd
Very solid last season.
15. (240) Dan Wheeler
16. (241) Jeremy Hermida
17. (272) Troy Percival
18. (273) Hideki Okajima
19. (304) Armando Galarraga
Did awesome for me the last half of the year. If he keeps his ERA down, he could be a steal here.
20. (305) David Murphy
Was hoping Chris Dickerson would still be here, he wasn’t.
21. (336) Yadier Molina
22. (337) Ryan Church
23. (368) Willie Harris
My sleeper pick this season.
24. (369) J.C. Romero

Overall I like my pitching. Possibility for lots of wins, K’s, and holds. Saves could be an issue as I only got two real closers.

Offensively I’m a little disappointed. Other then my first two picks I think my team could have some big holes.

96

Will come back to this when I have a little more time, but:

Kiros

  1. (13) Ryan Howard
  2. (20) Tim Lincecum
  3. (45) Brandon Webb
  4. (52) Adrián González
  5. (77) Stephen Drew
  6. (84) Ryan Doumit
  7. (109) Johnny Damon
  8. (116) Torii Hunter
  9. (141) Brad Hawpe
  10. (148) Jim Thome
  11. (173) Willy Taveras
  12. (180) Aaron Harang
  13. (205) Frank Francisco
  14. (212) Randy Johnson
  15. (237) Rafael Pérez
  16. (244) Jose Arredondo
  17. (269) Ian Stewart
  18. (276) Chase Headley
  19. (301) Ty Wigginton
  20. (308) Jed Lowrie
  21. (333) Jason Kubel
  22. (340) Justin Masterson
  23. (365) Tim Wakefield
  24. (372) Ramón Ramírez

I was annoyed by my Howard pick (I had him ranked 11th, but in a “11th is MUCH worse than the first 10” sort of way). I hate going pitchers early but felt the value was too good with the next two picks. Gonzalez was a straight value pick. Drew was a pick where I just plain didn’t like anyone on the board anywhere near that spot - seriously, go 4 or 5 picks either way and I wouldn’t want any of those guys either, but I can’t complain about those picks. I guess I should have gone with Dye, and I would have if I knew Winnowill was going to take him.

I had Dye and Martinez queued up two picks before my next pick, so Doumit was a little bit of a panic pick, since I wanted to go offense and again there wasn’t really anyone I liked left on the board for that spot. I like the Damon and Hunter picks as consistency 5-cat types. I REALLY like Hawpe and Thome in rounds 9 and 10 as OPS anchors.

Taveras in 11 - I felt it was a little early, but the way I approach this league offensively is go to with OPS and power type guys all around and squeeze as many steals as possible out of that one spot. It was Dave Roberts for several years, and it was Taveras last year, and hopefully it will be Taveras again this year. There weren’t many other options for the role, fewer than usual IMO. This also marked the start of the part of the draft where I feel most comfortable - round 11-20 where I am usually looking for something completely different than everyone else, and I can ignore runs on positions and just get my team together.

My only two regrets for the rest of the draft was that I got so completely shut out of the closer run between my 14th and 15 round picks (8 guys who are at least nominally saves guys and another few high-potential setup guys), and that I kept waiting on Fontenot and finally waited a little too long.

I really like my rotation but I’m not quite as thrilled as last year with my lineup, which isn’t really good because I am only so-so at digging up hitters but I have a very good track record of pulling pitchers off the scrap heap. It wasn’t my strategy going in, but my biggest goal is always quality. Overall I was very happy with everything except that round 5-6 stage where I wandered a bit.

I think the biggest thing to watch this year will be the additional depth in the league. For one, there are guys on the waiver wire who will be getting playing time, which is a new thing. For another, there is always at least some pitching depth in this league, and there should be more this year. Time to get on the lookout for Ryan Ludwick and Cliff Lee…

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**Part 3

Round 13**
I’m wondering if these rounds in here are where most people get the most upset. There are a number of picks in rounds 12-14 that are pretty role-specific. I can see someone really needing to pick Coco Crisp, Heath Bell, Jack Cust, Frank Francisco or Nick Swisher. If that player gets snatched, it throws your draft into a big loop. This is frustrating. This is also why I friggin’ love fantasy baseball.
Best Pick: Heath Bell - an underrated middle reliever.
Worst Pick: Ben Sheets - is he healthy at all?
Best Value: Nick Swisher - we’ll see if he can rebound from last year, get enough playing time, and contribute.

Round 14
Lots of “filling in the blanks this round”. Not a ton of risk/reward picks, but Randy certainly counts. This is also the point where my commentary is going to start running a little thin - because you can’t really say “Gregg should have been taken before Devine! Morons!” Simply because at this point teams are so different, relative values are completely skewed.
Best Pick: Randy Johnson - sure, there aren’t a lot of good SPs left, but the reward here is too much to pass up.
Worst Pick: Jimenez - I just don’t think he can do it again. I could be proven wrong quite easily, though.
Best Value: Jimenez - And this is how I hedge. If he pans, he pans huge.

Round 15
Spirit of Shea broke my heart this round. I had been sitting on Kuo for a while, and this is when I was going to spring. It was going to be brilliant. Everyone was going to cheer, confetti would fall, and the hot college softball players who live across the street were going to… Nevermind - Shea ruined all of that. Thanks.
Best Pick: Kuo - fantastic reliever with great ratios.
Worst Pick: Kuo - Seriously, dude. Those chicks are HOT!
Best Value: Konerko - he’s lost a lot of value the last few years, but in this round, it’s a tremendous pick.

Round 16
Ooh - there’s a name I missed. I love Duchschcchcssshererer. That’s a great pick. So’s Orlando Hudson, who’s a player that I just didn’t understand why he didn’t get more attention in the off season. Good fielder, good bat - and no one else competing in the FA market. I’m interested to see what Arredondo does - the Angels always put together a solid bullpen, and their numbers are desirable in fantasy.
Best Pick: Duchsherer - Much better than the remaining SPs.
Worst Pick: Sanchez - too early for this pick.
Best Value: Helton - assuming you need a big OBP boost and don’t need power or speed.

Round 17
Rapid fire…
Best Pick: Thornton - just fantastic stats that get lost in 5x5 leagues because he doesn’t close.
Worst Pick: Jeff Francoeur - apparently doing well in Spring Training, but I don’t trust those numbers because the pitching is so terrible in March.
Best Value: Ian Stewart - if he gets the 2b gig, he could be a top 10 2b.

Round 18
Best Pick: Dickerson - like rackensack said above, if he can produce at 80% of what he did in his stint last year, this is tremendous value. Totally stole my sleeper.
Worst Pick: Fukudome - definitely should have taken Dickerson, who I had higher on all my lists.
Best Value: Hafner - He was a 3rd rounder a few years ago!

98

I just realized that I have no Indians.

99

Well, my plan to get both Marmol and Gregg has already proven to be shrewd. Feeling really lucky to have pulled the trigger at the right time.

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One last push for anyone interested in another league. I have a few openings left in a 12 team 5x5 roto league. PM or e-mail me for info. (Note: batting average has been replaced with on-base percentage.)