2010 MLB Home Run Pool

1 Michael Cuddyer
2 Evan Longoria
3 Miguel Cabrera
4 Mark Reynolds
5 Albert Pujols
6 Dan Uggla
7 Ryan Zimmerman
8 Ben Zobrist
9 Robinson Cano
10 Lance Berkman

Week 11, Prince Fielder, Milwaukee

Bootis, there are a few reasons we’re laggin so bad, but foremost (and it took me playing this game to really grasp this) is the fact that sluggers are streaky. Looking at the league leaders-Cabrera has hit 11 of his 19 HR’s in the last 20 games, leaving only 8 for his other 40 games. Jose Bautista hit 11 of his HR’s in a 19 game stretch, leaving only 7 for his other 45 games. Likewise, Corey Hart hit 11 HR’s in a 17 game stretch, leaving only 6 for his other 38 games.

If you happened to pick one of those guys during a hot streak, you’d get about 3.5 HR’s a week; if you picked them during a cool streak (which it appears is roughly twice as likely) you’d get only 1 per week. Even the league leaders are going to be relative busts 2 times in 3.

These guys’ streaks are obviously amplified, but I’ve noticed the same thing all year-sluggers seem to go on a tear for 1-2 weeks then cool off again, at least as far as HR’s are concerned.

I’ll go with roid boy Arod this week…

Standings after week 10:


                          |Season|       Week        |Rank|
Participant               |HR  AB|Player       HR  AB|Chng|
--------------------------+------+-------------------+----+
Hawkeyeop                 |15 235|C. Utley         19|    |
Ambihelical Hexnut        |13 231|V. Guerrero   2  25|    |
Incensed                  |11 257|L. Berkman       23|    |
Bootis                    |10 222|V. Guerrero   2  25|    |
The Other Jeffrey Lebowski| 8 140|T. Glaus      2  27|Up 1|
wolfman                   | 7 223|I. Stewart       13|Dn 1|
FoieGrasIsEvil            | 4 155|J. Bautista      20|    |
Munch                     | 3 202|                   |    |
storyteller0910           | 1  42|                   |    |

In total, our picks have hit 72 HR in 1707 AB (4.22 HR/100 AB)
Last week, our picks hit 6 HR in 152 AB (3.95 HR/100 AB)

For the second time in 3 weeks, we collectively recorded 6 HR in 152 AB. Vlad’s homers enabled me to cut Hawkeyeop’s lead in half, and also meant that Bootis became the fourth participant to reach double digits. Elsewhere, Troy Glaus’s 2 HR game yesterday moved The Other Jeffrey Lebowski ahead of wolfman into 5th place.

Week 1: Alex Rodriguez (NYY)
Week 2: Chase Utley (PHI)
Week 3: Dan Uggla (FLA)
Week 4: Derrek Lee (CHC)
Week 5: Adam Dunn (WSH)
Week 6: Albert Pujols (STL)
Week 7: Prince Fielder (MIL)
Week 8: Kevin Youkilis (BOS)
Week 9: Mark Teixeira (NYY)
Week 10: Vladimir Guerrero (TEX)
Week 11: Miguel Cabrera (DET)
Week 12: Jose Guillen (KC)

Week 1: Aaron Hill - 0
Week 2: Prince Fielder - 0
Week 3: Chase Utley - 0
Week 4: Matt Kemp - 0
Week 5: Carlos Pena - 0
Week 6: Mark Teixeira - 2
Week 7: Kendry Morales - 1
Week 8: Justin Morneau - 0
Week 9: Jay Bruce
Week 12: Joey Votto

Week 12 Ryan Howard

1 Michael Cuddyer
2 Evan Longoria
3 Miguel Cabrera
4 Mark Reynolds
5 Albert Pujols
6 Dan Uggla
7 Ryan Zimmerman
8 Ben Zobrist
9 Robinson Cano
10 Lance Berkman
11 Prince Fielder

Week 12, Chase Utley, Philadelphia

Adam Dunn

Josh Hamilton

Justin Morneau

Standings after week 11:


                          |Season|       Week        |Rank|
Participant               |HR  AB|Player       HR  AB|Chng|
--------------------------+------+-------------------+----+
Hawkeyeop                 |15 257|C. Pena          22|    |
Ambihelical Hexnut        |13 251|M. Cabrera       20|    |
Incensed                  |12 278|P. Fielder    1  21|    |
Bootis                    |11 250|C. Hart       1  28|    |
The Other Jeffrey Lebowski| 9 167|J. Hamilton   1  27|    |
wolfman                   | 8 244|P. Fielder    1  21|    |
FoieGrasIsEvil            | 4 173|A. Rodriguez     18|    |
Munch                     | 3 202|                   |    |
storyteller0910           | 1  42|                   |    |

In total, our picks have hit 76 HR in 1864 AB (4.08 HR/100 AB)
Last week, our picks hit 4 HR in 157 AB (2.55 HR/100 AB)

Last week turned out to be a very quiet week for us. For the first time all season, everybody remained in the same position on the leaderboard, and nobody had a multi-homer week.

Week 5 Paul Konerko
Week 6 Jayson Werth
Week 7 Jose Bautista
Week 8 Alex Gonzalez
Week 9 Mark Teixeira
Week 10 Troy Glaus
Week 11 Josh Hamilton
Week 12 Adam Dunn
Week 13 Matt Holliday

Week 1: Alex Rodriguez (NYY)
Week 2: Chase Utley (PHI)
Week 3: Dan Uggla (FLA)
Week 4: Derrek Lee (CHC)
Week 5: Adam Dunn (WSH)
Week 6: Albert Pujols (STL)
Week 7: Prince Fielder (MIL)
Week 8: Kevin Youkilis (BOS)
Week 9: Mark Teixeira (NYY)
Week 10: Vladimir Guerrero (TEX)
Week 11: Miguel Cabrera (DET)
Week 12: Jose Guillen (KC)
Week 13: Josh Hamilton (TEX)

1 Michael Cuddyer
2 Evan Longoria
3 Miguel Cabrera
4 Mark Reynolds
5 Albert Pujols
6 Dan Uggla
7 Ryan Zimmerman
8 Ben Zobrist
9 Robinson Cano
10 Lance Berkman
11 Prince Fielder
12 Chase Utley

**Week 13-David Wright, NY Mets **

  1. Victor Martinez
  2. Carlos Pena
  3. Albert Pujols
  4. Adrian Gonzolez
  5. Chase Utley
  6. Ian Stewart
  7. Dustin Pedroia
  8. Prince Fielder
  9. David Ortiz
  10. Vlad Guerrero
  11. Corey HArt
  12. Justin Morneau

Week 13. Vernon Wells, Tor

Justin Morneau

Standings after week 12:


                          |Season|       Week        |Rank|
Participant               |HR  AB|Player       HR  AB|Chng|
--------------------------+------+-------------------+----+
Hawkeyeop                 |17 279|J. Hamilton   2  22|    |
Ambihelical Hexnut        |13 274|J. Guillen       23|    |
Incensed                  |12 299|C. Utley         21|    |
Bootis                    |11 272|J. Morneau       22|    |
The Other Jeffrey Lebowski|10 188|A. Dunn       1  21|    |
wolfman                   | 9 265|R. Howard     1  21|    |
Munch                     | 5 223|J. Votto      2  21|Up 1|
FoieGrasIsEvil            | 4 173|                   |Dn 1|
storyteller0910           | 1  42|                   |    |

In total, our picks have hit 82 HR in 2015 AB (4.07 HR/100 AB)
Last week, our picks hit 6 HR in 151 AB (3.97 HR/100 AB)

Hawkeyeop has extended his lead to 4 homers, and The Other Jeffrey Lebowski reached double digits. The only change on the leaderboard was Munch jumping over FoieGrasIsEvil into seventh place.

It seems like, in recent weeks, our picks have had a ton of hits, but the longball has largely deserted them… It’s now been 6 straight weeks with an overall rate of less than 4 HR per 100 AB.

Week 13 Andre Eithier

Crap! I’ll take Josh Hamilton.

1 Michael Cuddyer
2 Evan Longoria
3 Miguel Cabrera
4 Mark Reynolds
5 Albert Pujols
6 Dan Uggla
7 Ryan Zimmerman
8 Ben Zobrist
9 Robinson Cano
10 Lance Berkman
11 Prince Fielder
12 Chase Utley
13 David Wright

Week 14, Brennan Boesch, Detroit