2011 NFL Draft

The Game Room
581

Well I’m not sure if it’s a good thing or not, But Mel said damn near word for word was I thinking about the Lions draft.

They went from one of the worst D-lines in history, to what could potentially be one of the best in two years.
But the secondary is still crap on toast. Max-protect and short routes are still going to march right down the field. Maybe they can pick up a corner in free agency.

Leshoure is a nice change up to save some wear and tear on Best(and hopefully Stafford, hard to fuck up your shoulder handing it off, but with him you never know)

Still wait and see if the new talent adds much to the sum of the existing parts.

582

It’s too early to tell, of course, but I think the Panthers blew another draft. No need to go over the Newton argument again, but other than McClain, who I thought was a very good pick there, they reached for almost every other pick.

583

I am wondering if St. Louis and Seattle have a bet to see who can get to the bottom of the NFC faster.

Looking at the Rams draft last year compared to this year, I am guessing that Pat Shurmur was the brains in the war room last year. This year they got a great 1st rounder in Quinn who will bookend nicely with Long for many tears. Second round got them a good TE, but TE was the least of their needs this years. After that they drafted Danny Amendola twice and three guys who will be out of football before the ink dries on thier rookie contracts.
They gave up the best cover saftey in the game and replaced him with … nothing. Even anyone they might get in Free Agency will be a major step down.

Note to the Rams staff: Filling roster spots with barely warm bodies is NOT the same as filling needs.

The further Detroit gets from Matt Millen the better their drafting is getting. Now they just need to learn to play.

584

Two words for you.
Russell Erxleben.

I hoe that Henery turns out to be a great pick (and I say this as a former kicker, myself), but kickers are often flakes, and too many of them who were great in college wash out in the NFL.

585

As much as I loved the 49ers Kaepernick pick, the rest of their draft is meh or worse. I give it a C+ at best. Too many of the 3-7 rounders are career special-teamers. Maybe all of them except Hunter.

586

Is there a link to these grades or is it insider stuff?

If so, would you mind pasting the Browns grade?

587

Insider stuff - but the AFC North grades are reprinted here. Browns got a B+.

More or less everyone is applauding the Buccaneers’ draft, which is a bit odd considering we didn’t take a corner until the throwaway rounds. Still, with so much talent available in free agency (eventually), who cares?

588

He gave the 49ers a C+ like I did.

589

I’m not sure I’d agree with that. The Bucs got a pair of high upside/high risk players with their first two picks. Both could very easily be medically ineligible come year 3. It may not be likely with Clayborn, but I’d be quite concerned about his ability to progress in the NFL with his limitation. Bowers might have 5 great years in Tampa, he also might never suit up for a game. Foster and Stocker were mild reaches but could be good players. It’s tough to argue with their logic but it’s awfully risky to call is a great draft.

590

Not at all, wonderful net denizen.

Cleveland Browns
Top needs: WR, DE, LB, RT

Summary: You would think Cleveland trading down and piling up picks for this year and into the next two years would be good enough, but once the picks started, Browns fans should have been even more pleased. Taylor may have been a bit of a reach, but he’s the best clogger in the draft, and those guys aren’t easy to find. The Sheard pick made a lot of sense, and Little is a really good value as a potential big, down-the-field threat for Colt McCoy. I would have liked to have seen the Browns get a linebacker and some help at right tackle, but given what they did in terms of adding future picks, the grade in this draft is also something that will truly extend to later drafts.

NEEDS: B VALUE: A- OVERALL: B+

591

I haven’t taken the time to break down the entire draft yet but my first impression was that the Browns probably walked away with the best draft by a country mile.

592

Browns draft was pretty good I think. People on the browns boards are going nuts over it but I’m not wildly in love with it.

The Atlanta trade down was smart, but people are talking like Hershel Walker trade and that’s silly. If you go by the conventional wisdom of that stupid draft chart, going down from #6 to #27 is a 920 point downgrade, which is worth somewhere between the 17th and 18th pick itself.

Adding it all up, you’re giving away the #6 (1600) for the #27 (680), #59 (310), #124 (48), and a #1 and #4 next year.

Let’s assume next year that Atlanta is drafting at the same spot next year because it seems reasonable they’ll be a contender. That’d add another 680 and 48 points - except that picks dealt next year are not considered as valuable as picks this year. The rule of thumb which I’ve heard - which I also think is dumb - is to cut the value in half for next year’s picks.

That’d give us 1600 for 680 + 310 + 48 + 340 + 24 = 1402. This means that by conventional wisdom, Atlanta actually got the greater value of the deal, assuming they do well and draft late next year.

To be clear, I think the GM value chart is bullshit and outdated, but I know fans make a big deal out of it. And more importantly, the same people that are claiming Cleveland raped Atlanta probably also believe in the draft chart, which says (based on my assumptions) that Atlanta got the better of the deal.

I do think factoring in everything (the inaccuracy of the draft chart, the lack of elite prospects left at #6, the quality of next year’s draft, the possibility that a rookie wage scale makes next year’s draft more valuable), Cleveland won out by a fair margin but not an absolute assraping.

Moving on… I don’t like trading a high third round to move up from #27 to #21. It’s a bit much to give up. I also didn’t see the need to do it - I don’t think Phil Taylor is such a great prospect that it’s worth paying a premium rather than sitting in place, possibly landing Taylor or if not then another capable DT. I also don’t like the giant DTs/small DE style of 4-3 defense, but I guess if that’s your plan going into the draft then Phil Taylor was the right guy to grab.

The second round I feel good about - if they passed up Bowers then they must really think he’s got a serious chance of not playing significant time in his career. Sheard sounds like just the right kind of RDE this defense needs, only heard good stuff about him so far. I like Little as a WR prospect - in the 2nd round as far as WRs go, you usually either get guys who are reasonably polished, who have good overall skills and decent production but aren’t elite in any way, but they’ll step in and be solid #2s. Or you go for the guys who have 1st round talent but fell for other reasons. We already have a few of the receivers of that first type, and I didn’t want to add another one - I wanted to swing for high potential with another draft pick. Little was suspended for a year which dropped his stock big time, otherwise he could’ve been a first rounder. He’s got some great athleticism, crazy size (6’4 235) and he’s a former running back that likes to hit people and has very good yards after the catch. His upside is Anquan Boldin. For a late 2nd rounder, I like that gamble. Probably takes him 2 years to get up to speed though.

Traded the third away so the next guy up is Marecic. Everyone creams themselves over what a great guy he is and how he’s a pure football player and all that, so it’s hard to hate him. What bothers me more is that it seems to be a willingness to give up on Vickers who’s the best pure smashmouth FB in football right now. The dude is essential to our running game. So what if he’s a free agent? If you give him the biggest contract a FB could have, what is that, 2 million a year? That’s worth it. Keep him.

Jordan Cameron I don’t like. He’s a TE that’s a crazy athlete that wasn’t very productive, they’re trying to strike gold here with an Antonio Gates type, but you don’t need to do that in the 4th round if you’re a team with lots of needs with some DL (Ballard) who fell down to this point still on the board. Just didn’t see the need here, he seems more like a 5th+ round gamble.

I don’t really know the other guys well enough to have an opinion. Buster Skrine is apparently a freakishly fast little dude who may not be able to play corner. The other guy is a RT road grader prospect. Eh, late rounders.

Overall, pretty good, but overrated by most people I think.

593

I’ve always heard the rule is to depreciate future picks by 1 round per year. That’s not a huge difference from halving them I suppose, but it’s how I’ve always figured it. Agree that the “chart” is stupid and outdated though. Hopefully next year with a new rookie wage scale we can finally throw out that thing or at least get one that seems a lot more equitable as far as the top picks are concerned.

Still, I’m going to dig in to everything at some point here but right now I’m going to side with calling that trade an ass raping. I really, really like Phil Taylor personally so that might color my judgment here but I don’t think they lost out on a ton of value by moving down the first round and got a ton in return. Phil Taylor will help the Browns 90% as much as Julio Jones would have and I love Jones.

Also, keep in mind that the Falcons are in a division that’s got Tampa and New Orleans, two good teams that also might have gotten a ton better. It’s not a stretch to argue that the Falcons will end up on the outside looking in come playoff time, drafting in the 15-20 range and are a Matt Ryan injury from being a top 10 pick.

594

Yeah, I wouldn’t root against them or root for a big injury, but if Ryan or even maybe Turner goes down and a few things go against them they could be picking top 20 I suppose, which would make it an even more valuable trade.

Good to hear you like Phil Taylor. I really don’t know anything about him - haven’t looked into him since he wasn’t appropriate for where we were drafting, only knew that he was regarded as a prototypical block gobbler 3-4 NT. If I have to watch a 4-3, I like it to be a 1 gap system where even the 1 technique is a penetrator. Very very tired of defenses designed with passive D-lines.

595

I think they design those defenses by default, because there are relatively few true space-eating defensive tackles in the NFL, although that does seem to be changing. There seem to be a lot of good interior defensive linemen these days.

596

Big, agile DTs are like centers in basketball - their size gives them value beyond their ability. I read elsewhere that the Chiefs had a need at DT, so they were probably looking to grab Taylor if the Browns hadn’t made that trade. He’ll be called on to clog the middle and take on the center and a guard. Rubin is more of the finesse guy, so I expect him to be the one to get pressure up the middle. All in all, I can see why the Browns felt the need to trade a 3rd rounder to move up.

The only dispute I really have is not grabbing a RT with the 4th round pick. And they apparently don’t consider Vickers suitable for the WC offense, but as good as he is, any dropoff in the skill of your fullback isn’t a huge deal either way, so I’m not too broken up about losing him.

597

I think you might be underselling this a tad. The team with the best record who misses the playoffs gets the 20th pick, note who that was this year…the Falcons’ division rival who was awfully damn good last year. So, the Falcons don’t need an injury or much to go against them to get a top 20 pick. If they lose a close game or two they could be top 20. A key injury might make them sub-500 and that could be a really solid pick.

598

Clayborn’s medical issue is a non-issue. It’s a congenital defect that he’s played with at every level, and hasn’t affected him yet.

Bowers certainly comes with risk, but if you drafted two players in the same position group in any given year you expect one of them to bust anyway. Besides that, I’m pretty sure all the talk of a “bone on bone” condition is BS. The surgery he had in the offseason was to repair a partial tear of the meniscus. If there wasn’t any cartilage in his knee, the Bucs team physicians would know it. It’s not difficult to see how a knee joint is spaced on an MRI. At worst, he might not have fully rehabbed from surgery by the start of the preseason.

Stocker and Foster weren’t reaches at all. Both were projected to go in rounds 3-4, and they did.

599

What annoys the hell out of me is that the draft order tiebreakers aren’t the same as the playoff tiebreakers. If Green Bay had lost in Week 17, the Buccaneers still wouldn’t have gotten into the playoffs; the Giants would, thanks to a better conference record. But the Buccaneers had a higher opponent win percentage*, so the Giants got the better pick and got Prince Iaukea or whatever his name is.

*this despite all the talk about how the Bucs were a mirage because they only beat one team with a winning record (New Orleans in Week 17).

600

New Orleans is going to lose at least as much in free agency as it gained in the draft. The Saints have 28 unrestricted free agents, and they’re going to have to re-sign Drew Brees this year (he has one year left) which will eat a lot of the money they’d use to re-sign everyone else.

The Buccaneers will be a bit better this year, rather than a ton. In fact, I’d be somewhat surprised if we can win 10 games again. Our offense was ranked 19th last year and is only going to improve as much as the young players do. Having LeGarrette Blount in the backfield for all 16 games will make a difference (assuming he learns to pick up the blitz), but Aurrelious Benn is coming off an ACL tear and it’s tough to see Mike Williams improving on last year’s numbers.

Plus the offensive line was already a veteran unit, and the only player with room to improve from experience is right guard Ted Larsen.

The defense might not be better at all. Aqib Talib probably won’t be on the roster, and certainly won’t be on the field, and Ronde Barber was already old. E.J. Biggers turned out to be a real gem, but he’s too slow to stay with premier wideouts. I’m hopeful that the Glazers will loosen the purse strings and spend money on a top-flight corner to replace Talib, but not expecting it.