I could not disagree more. We absolutely needed to shore up our running back depth. I am not sold on James Stark, Ryan Grant is a question mark after being out a year, Brandon Jackson is likely gone. Depth at running back is a key to success. Green sounds like an excellent third down back. To say he is a huge reach is a huge overstatement. The Packers third round is almost the fourth round which is where it seems most thought he might go. I like Sam Acho as well, but Christian Ballard not so much.
I listed 5 other running backs I would have preferred to Green, and could probably list another 4 (DERRICK LOCKE). For that reason alone, I think he was a reach. I hope I’m wrong. I hope Green is better than a passable 3rd down back, but he doesn’t really get me excited at all. I also think that there will be more RB’s available in free agency (whether undrafted or normal) that could fill the need. Guys like Ronnie Brown, Michael Bush, Addai, Bradshaw, Harrison, Hart, Norwood, Sproles, and on and on might be available. Given the dearth of other options and my lack of Green-love, I thought it was a reach. Hopefully, I’m wrong.
WHile I respectfully disagree with your analysis, I get it. But saying it is a reach when we are talking about a group of running backs that all have pros and cons in almost equal measure it is hard to say it is a reach, IMO. Some of those backs you listed are considerably smaller and not fitting in with what the Packers need. I am not a fan of picking up RBs in FA, the only one there tha twould be a fit in sproles, IMO.
Anyway, what about Green’s Butte CC cred?
Isn’t he getting a bit old these days? 
I’ll just add one consideration. The Bears surrendered their 7th round pick in this draft to select RB Harvey Unga from the 2010 Supplemental Draft. Unga was essentially redshirted last year and was a very productive college player with elite pass catching and solid blocking skills out of the backfield. He could be a terrific addition, especially around the red zone, and should count towards this draft. Most people had him rated as a 4th round prospect and I think he’s clearly a better prospect than anyone taken in this draft after the 5th round.
Obviously not going to make or break a draft, but it’s one more hole filled in a pretty important spot and at a pretty good value.
I think there’s a larger discussion here that’s worth the time, but I don’t think now is that time. “Value” in an NFL draft is a nigh impossible thing to quantify or reason. There are too many unknowable variables. I just don’t know how you can definitively say that Watkins was worse than these guys or just the same as these other guys, I find that indefensible. Especially for the offensive line where measurable performance is pretty much non-existant.
I can say this though, nobody you mentioned can really compare to Danny Watkins. Jordan isn’t a lineman, Carimi and Sherrod are tackles who would have to be converted, Wisnewski and Hudson were both second round centers or lower. Watkins is the only pure guard there, so that matters somewhat.
On average, the first kicker off the board over the last ten years has come in the fourth round, and this excludes Janikowski in 2000. So this isn’t any out of the ordinary in this case. Your overall point is a fair one, but I think an exception can be made for arguably the greatest college kicker of all time. I would much rather draft one I can probably count on than play kicker roulette with the same tired kickers every other year that I can only hope to count on. I was originally shocked the Eagles drafted a kicker so high, but then I got it. It makes sense. This isn’t a team that wants to play kicker roulette or is used to doing so.
It is very tough. I generally use the term value to describe where I have a guy ranked. If he’s my 100th ranked person, and he’s drafted 25th, he’s bad value. If he’s my 13th guy and he’s drafted 146th, he’s great value. (Don’t get me wrong, I don’t actually rank everyone, it’s just rough ideas). It is, of course, based on unknowable variables.
It’s an opinion. Of course nobody right now can say Watkins will be worse than anyone I mentioned. Or better than them. It’s simply an opinion on the future holds.
Just as I think that having only one “your guy” is poor drafting technique, so is drafting the best __________ available. To me, the best plan is to take the best player available, and if you have a bunch of guys who are all roughly equal, then you take the one who fills a position of need. Had Danny Watkins been drafted before the Eagles got him, would you have wanted them to simply draft the next highest rated guard on their board?
Henery may very well be the best kicker ever, and, if so, he’ll be well worth the 4th round pick invested in him. But given the number of highly drafted kickers who haven’t worked out or haven’t outperformed other kickers selected later, and the number of kickers who have succeeded after being drafted later rounds, I generally speaking, don’t think they’re worth it. Henery, though, might be.
2010-None
2009-5th Buehler
2008-6th Mehlhaff
2007-5th Medlock
2006-4th Gostkowski
2005-2nd Nugent
2004-3rd Kaeding
2003-7th Brown
2002-4th Chandler
2001-4th Gramatica
2000-1st Janikowski
The average seems closer to the 5th round, really.
And that’s only the ones that were drafted. Guys like David Akers, Dan Carpenter, Matt Bryant, Billy Cundiff, Adam Vinatieri, and Robbie Gould (all top 10 kickers) were undrafted free agents, which would drag the average down further.
That’s Cris Carter.
The guy who wrote X Files?
Median is 4.5 (leaving out 2000, reordering, bolding #5 & #6: [ 2 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 - ])
I counted the lack of pick in 2010 as the 8th round to get a 4.8, myself.
Well, he’s old too I guess.
I tend to agree (though, if Henery turns out to be “the best kicker ever”, a fourth-round pick for him might be a steal).
Janikowski’s never made a Pro Bowl, and he ranks 29th among active kickers on field goal percentage. He has a huge leg, but he’s almost undoubtedly another example of a reach in the first round for the Raiders. Nugent didn’t last 4 seasons with the Jets, and he’s bounced around since. Brett Conway (Packers’ third-round pick in '97) couldn’t even make the final roster cut (beaten out by free agent Ryan Longwell), and wound up playing a total of 51 games for 5 teams.
I mentioned the infamous Russell Erxleben earlier; the Cardinals drafted Erxleben’s SWC rival, Steve Little, in the 1st round as well. Little was terrible as both a kicker and a punter; he was cut by the Cards during his third season, and crashed his car a few hours after being cut, winding up a quadraplegic.
Kaeding’s the active leader in field goal percentage, and has been to the Pro Bowl twice, which is pretty good production for a 3rd round pick. Jason Hanson (2nd round pick of the Lions in '92) also panned out pretty well.
OTOH, of the top ten active kickers in field-goal percentage, only two (Kaeding and Gostkowski) were drafted. Adam Vinatieri, who likely has a shot at being the second pure kicker to make it to the Hall of Fame, was, of course, undrafted.
Mike Nugent is the clearest example of why you shouldn’t use a high draft pick on a kicker. He was the most clutch college kicker I’ve ever seen, but has been thoroughly average as a pro.
BENGALS Draft:
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AJ Green: Fucking Stud
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Andy Dalton: Ginger Stud. Paint black stripes on his hair and he won’t even need a helmet!
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Dontay Moch: Fast Stud
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Clint Boling: Big Fucking Stud
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Robert Sands: Predator Stud
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Ryan Whalen: Stanford Stud
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Korey Lindsay: Saluki Stud
Grade: A+++ Super Awesomeness!
Which NFL team are you a fan of again? I forget.
I love the Steelers with an unhealthy homo-erotic crush on Hines Ward.
It’s almost noon. If you’re really a Steeler fan, aren’t you supposed to be drunk by now?