If Walker took particular advantage of Coors, that is real value, and he deserves full credit for it. It helped his team win games.
I admit I don’t really get this. He didn’t stay in Montreal. He went to Colorado. We aren’t discussing the candidacy of a theoretical Larry Walker that stayed in Montreal. I mean, if he’d stayed in Montreal, maybe the Expos make the playoffs in 1996 and win the World Series and Walker wins the World Series MVP Award; we haven’t any idea what would have happened, really.
I’m not a big Larry Walker fan and I don’t expect him to be elected to the Hall and don’t care; it’s just that discussions amongst insightful baseball fans always seem to agree Edgar is deserving and yet never seem to be as enthusiastic about a range of other players who appear to be equally deserving, and Walker’s the poster child for that. Every analytial stat says Walker and Martinez are equally valuable, but with Martinez the discussion always seems to talk about what he did well and with Walker it’s always “but he played in Coors.” Well, yeah, he did, but he was still just as valuable.
I’m not sure why this is. I suspect it’s partially backlash against people saying “blar blar blar DHs suck” with the justified feeling that a DH who hits great is valuable. But I think part of it is also Bill James’s “Killebrew-Carew effect” - his idea and example, but my term - that players who specialize in doing one thing really well tend to be overrated while players who are very good at many things are underrated.
It’s simply that I and other aren’t sure we should give him full credit for playing in a unique park that clearly elevated his game to a new level even after adjusting for park values.
If you don’t get that, fine. I can see both sides and that’s why I’m on the fence.
I voted Larkin, Morris, Raines, Martinez, Trammell, Mattingly, Murphy, and Bernie Williams. Of these, I think only Morrisand Trammellcould be arguable, IMESHO.
I purposely left off the known steroids guys (McGwire/Palmiero).
That’s up 15 for Bagwell (and Morris), and 10 for Raines. Those numbers actually look pretty good for Raines, long-term (though the crowded ballots coming up might be an issue). At this point, it’s pretty hard to see Morris staying out.
McGwire had 3 fewer voters than last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if he stuck at about 20% for all fifteen years on the ballot.
Congratulations to Larkin, who definitely belongs in the Hall and should have been elected even sooner. The BBWAA notes that he had one of the biggest one-year jumps in support ever, going to about 86 percent from 62. Bagwell is moving in the right direction and it looks like he’ll get in eventually. I think it’s ridiculous that Raines and some other candidates are getting so few votes even though some of them will probably make it eventually. It also bugs me - maybe more than it should - that a borderline candidate like Morris is probably going to get in because people feel, based on wins and some clutch performances, that he’s a Hall of Famer while guys who have a more solid, objective argument have to wait.
My boy, Lee Smith, got about a 5% bump up to 50.6% with only 5 more years on the ballot. Morris has only got 2 more years on the ballot, so he’s definitely not a sure thing even though he made a big jump this year. Edgar Martinez lost a percentage point from last year, which is interesting. It looks like Bagwell, Raines and maybe Morris will eventually get there, but that might be it from this ballot.
My google-fu failed me. I remember reading the highest percentage of vote totals for a player who was not ultimately elected, and it was surprisingly low - it might have been Ron Santo at 40-something. Anyone have a better recollection?
He has a shot, to be sure, but he’ll be waiting another three years at least, based on how his voting percentages have gone and, for me, he’s a no-brainer. He shouldn’t have to wait at all, much less the better part of a decade, IMO.
Normally, a guy like Jack Morris would have to be mighty happy- his total votes increased substantially, and in an ordinary year, he’d have to think he was a lock to make it next time.
But he’s not. There are far too many guys with MUCH better stats coming up next year and the year after. Jack Morris only has two more years on the ballot, and he will NOT be one of best players on the ballot either year.
I’ve read that, up to now, EVERY player who’s gotten as high a percentage of the vote as Morris got this year has eventually been elected.
I think he’ll be the first NOT to. This was his last, best chance.
Certainly, there will be many voters with qualms about electing Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens or Sammy Sosa (even though all are far more worthy, statistically, than Morris). But even if they’re excluded, Curt Schilling is at LEAST as good a choice as Jack Morris, has at LEAST as memorable a record in the post-season. I think people who look at the ballot wil conclude that Morris doesn’t compare that well with Schilling.
Then there’s still Craig Biggio and Mike Piazza, who are both better choices.
And the year after, Greg Maddux and Tommy Glavine will be on the ballot. Both were MUCH better than Morris, and will probably go in on the first ballot.
I don’t think his chances improve after this year. I think this was his last big chance to get in.