Belichick apparently snuck in as a member of the press corps to get a better angle to steal signals.
It’s not the rules — it’s plain old math. If there were only a 10% chance of scoring on a given drive, then it would still be advantageous to get the ball first.
This Grantland article is reasonably awesome for stat geeks.
Basically summarizes why Tebow was awesome and the Giants-Falcons coaching decisions.
A couple quibbles with that articles, which was otherwise quite good:
What the announcing team was commenting on was the body language of the players on the sideline after the second failed conversion. The players basically looked like they’d mentally checked out, and their run defense from that point on seems to indicate that they had.
Early points are more important on the road because it helps to take the home team fans out of the game. Anything to reduce crowd noise helps your offense.
The annual bit of Onion awesomeness.
And they’ve pretty much nailed the Giants this year – “New York: In a strange turn of events, the Giants have actually improved their chances of winning by having Eli Manning on the field”.
Reported spam (reply #286 if this one isn’t deleted too).
I’m just putting this post out here as a marker: I will not be stunned if Denver wins on Saturday.
I keep hearing about how the Patriots destroyed Denver four weeks ago, but it isn’t true; Denver scored 17 points in just over a quarter, and led 17-6. They then turned the ball over on their half of the field three times, found themselves down 27-16, and were forced out of their style of game.
But aside from the turnovers, it was fairly evenly matched, with both teams moving the ball pretty easily. Denver averaged 6.8 yards per play and had 23 first downs. Take away the 13 points Denver fumbled away, and that was a one-play-difference game.
New England is rightfully favored, and Denver having to travel east on 6 days’ rest is a helluva challenge. But don’t be shocked if Denver can hold their own in a shootout.
I’d love it if they won. I don’t see it happening.*
*I said the exact same thing last week.
Did you just guarantee that the Broncos would win or did you just jinx it?
Or does calling out the Jinx reverses the jinx?
Anyway, with New England’s defense being not too good, I could see this turning into a shootout (or the Denver Broncos version of that on their side) and there is the potential for the Broncos to win it. It’s not impossible and I’ll laugh if it happens.
Fearless “against convention thinking” prediction: The total score of the Texans/Ravens game will be higher than the total score of the Giants/Packers game.
(Bonus: the Packers will be the lowest-scoring team this weekend, with 10 points)
Last week I knew the Steelers were ripe for a beating. I wussed out and picked them to eek it out on a late drive and win 17-16, but I knew that with the injuries the Steelers were ripe for a beating.
With the Pats, well, they have their flaws but they sure as hell won’t struggle to protect Brady and will put up plenty of points.
You may be onto something here. The Packers are designed to pull ahead and then the defense can pressure the quaterback. They’re a little too light for a power running game which the Giants just found last week.
I can’t imagine a Denver win would come in a shootout. I think they’d have to pound the ball, have long drives, control the clock, and keep Brady off the field to have a chance at a win. If the Pats jump out to an early lead, or get ahead by a couple touchdowns, I don’t see Tebow being able to keep up with Brady.
It depends on what you mean by “shootout.”
Tebow isn’t going to match Brady throw-for-throw in a QB duel, but that doesn’t mean the Broncos as a team can’t put up points: again, they put up 400 yards of offense against the Patriots four weeks ago (the Pats average giving up 400, for that matter). Just with average luck, that kind of yardage usually turns into ~28 points. Throw in an edge in the return game or the turnovers, and it’s 35.
I agree with you that they need to pound the ball, but that’s their offense. ISTM that while they may be unlikely to score 31, they’re even less likely to hold Brady to 13.
I’m looking at the Saints, and I don’t really see anything they do that can knock the 49ers off their game. I see many ways the 49ers can knock the Saints off their game.
The 49ers have better players pretty much everywhere other than QB and one WR. (Probably a wash at TE.)
Yeah, the Saints have the #2 scoring offense, but SF has the #2 scoring defense. The Saints rely on their under-the-radar running game to open things up for Brees, but they won’t be able to run anywhere on the Niners’ front. As long as our safeties keep things in front of them, I just can’t see the Saints winning this game.
Football Friday predictions:
Niners 31, Saints 28
Patriots 44, Broncos 13
Ravens 27, Texans 17
Giants 28, Packers 10
I forget. What team do you root for?
You’re crazy if you think any defense will hold GB to 10 points. No one came close to it this year and they won’t do it this time.
What does a reigning 15-1 Super Bowl champion that won 19 games in a row with the best QB in the league have to do to get some respect?
Packers @ Chiefs. 14 is pretty close to 10. I happen to agree with you that GB will score more than 10. But 14 is still pretty close to 10.
Imagine that…believing (quite accurately) that your team can win!