NFL Week 9

I’ve got to run into work tonight so I’m going to plow through these quick and dirty just to get them up before Friday.

Sunday, Nov. 8				

** JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 6½ Kansas City Chiefs 41½ **
The Jags have been completely schizophrenic. The Chiefs added Chris Chambers this week off waivers. He was pricey so you have to imagine that they intend to use him quite a bit. Still, the Chiefs are a poor run defense and I highly doubt that the Jags will once again let MoJo finish a game with just 8 carries.

The Pick: Jaguars 23 - Chiefs 16

** Baltimore Ravens 3 CINCINNATI BENGALS 43½ **
Rematch of an exciting first game, this time the Bengals get homefield advantage off a bye. The Ravens had a big win last week, but I’m still stinging from that flawless performance from Palmer and company against the Bears. I’m getting the sense that the Bengals offense is ready to click on all cylinders for the balance of the season and the Ravens secondary will feel the pain.

The Pick: Bengals 30 - Ravens 26

** INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 9 Houston Texans 48 **
The Texans have a history of playing the Colts tight and the Colts didn’t exactly explode last week offensively with Donald Brown on the bench. I see little reason to expect a change there and the Colts won’t cover that spread, even at home. The question is if the Texans offense, with the questions at RB and the loss of Daniels, can remain potent. I think they can, but they won’t beat the Colts at home.

The Pick: Colts 28 - Texans 21

** ATLANTA FALCONS 10 Washington Redskins 41½ **
This game should be a drubbing. The Falcons are a great team at home, and they struggle on the road. This week that plays to their strengths. Enough has been said about how screwed up the 'Skins are. I suspect that it’ll be an ugly outing for Campbell and Ryan will flex his fantasy muscles after laying a couple eggs.

The Pick: Falcons 30 - Redskins 9

** Green Bay Packers 9½ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 43½ **
The Bay of Pigs game! Retro style. The Bucs are a mess and for all the Packers flaws, they can still be an explosive team and they have a very good defensive system when the QB isn’t named Favre. It’ll be a long day for Freeman (he’s getting the start, right?) and the Bucs don’t have the pass rush to make Rodgers struggle.

The Pick: Packers 37 - Buccaneers 3

** CHICAGO BEARS 3 Arizona Cardinals 44½ **
Scary game for my Bears. I’m going to hold off on predicting this game because I want to give it a thorough going over.

The Pick: To be continued…

** NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 10½ Miami Dolphins 46½ **
Can the Dolphins continue their unconventional winning ways? In Miami Brady has a history of struggling and the Dolphins have tended to be the team that plays the Pats best, but this week the matchups are less than ideal. The Dolphins real weak spot is it’s young and inexperienced secondary and if anyone will destroy that it’s the Pats passing attack that’s finding it’s old stride. There’s no chance Henne can keep pace with that even if the Wildcat has a big week.

The Pick: Patriots 31 - Dolphins 20

** NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 13 Carolina Panthers 51½ **
The Saints are a machine. At home they are flat out scary. At this point I’m penciling in the Saints for 40 points every week and if the other team can’t score 41 I’m picking them to lose. The Panthers are starting to get good on the ground again (why’d it take this long?) and I think this game will be surprisingly close. Last weeks performance by Turner makes me think the Panther will be successful running in the dome, but the Saints secondary can turn the ball over and Delhomme is still Delhomme.

The Pick: Saints 40 - Panthers 24

** SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 10 Detroit Lions 43 **
The Lions should be getting CJ back but they’ll be without Kevin Smith is seems. One step forward, one step back. The Seahawks will roll at home, I don’t like the idea of Stafford and that O Line dealing with that crowd at all. Big week for Hasselbeck.

The Pick: Seahawks 24 - Lions 12

** SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 4½ Tennessee Titans 41 **
The Niners should feel pretty good about how they played the Colts last week and be equally scared by what they saw from Chris Johnson last week. I suspect both trends continue. Vince Young not crapping the be? That trend ends.

The Pick: 49ers 26 - Titans 13

** NEW YORK GIANTS 4½ San Diego Chargers 47½ **
The Giants are on the ropes and reeling. Lucky for them the newspapers will be obsessed with the Yankees for at least a few more days. If they don’t get healthy against the Chargers this week the sky will be falling. If Jacobs and Bradshaw had been looking competent lately I might be tempted to stick with them, but with the weather cooling on Eli and the Chargers and some lopsided matchups in the secondary I’ll take the points.

The Pick: Chargers 27 - Giants 17

** PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 3 Dallas Cowboys 48 **
Pretty good Sunday Night game with a pair of offenses that seem to have found their stride. Roy Williams aside the Cowboys passing game and healthy running backs should dominate the Eagles if Westbrook continues to struggle. The big play ability of Maclin and Jackson demands attention, especially with Wade Phillips involved prominently but those Radiers and Redskins games are still sticking out in my mind. Neither team is especially reliable in primetime but I’ll stick with my gut and go with the 'Pokes.

The Pick: Cowboys 21 - Eagles 20

Monday, Nov. 9				

** Pittsburgh Steelers 3 DENVER BRONCOS 39½ **
Does anyone believe in the Broncos? I don’t, I’ve pretended to a few times just because doubting them was so hard to rationalize but I really don’t. I suspect this game plays out very similarly to the Ravens game. The Steelers are fast and aggressive on defense and without that downfield ability from the QB position it plays right into their hands. Big Ben won’t have a field day behind that O Line and I don’t expect them to have a ton of success on the ground but all in all I think they play with a short field all game long and grind the Broncos down.

The Pick: Steelers 20 - Broncos 16

Nice!

The thread or the Bengals prediction?

Bob Sanders is done for the year…again. And I thought Mike Brown was injury prone.

This question probably gets asked a lot. What are the numbers?
NEW YORK GIANTS 4½ San Diego Chargers 47½
What do these mean?
The Pick: Chargers 27 - Giants 17
Is this your pick for the final score?

You’re screwing with me right?

CAPS = Home team. Left Team = Favorite. Middle Number = Point Spread. Right Number = Over/Under line.

Yup, though I put more stock into picking the moneyline, against the spread and O/U. This is just the easiest way to address all the potential bets in one format.

No, I am not a big sports fan. I just watch the games on Sunday unless I am busy. Thanks for the reply.

I had to look up over/under. I don’t think I have seen the total points as something that people bet on. If you just had the spread I wouldn’t have gotten confused.

The question gets asked in the thread every week. It’s getting comical, I figured people would have read the answer by now if they were reading these threads regularly. We joked about it some last week.

O/U is very common, many gamblers bet nothing but. Probably the second most common wager ahead of even money line bets. Spread bets parleyed with O/U bets are pretty standard.

Yeah I am a lazy asshole. I should have done a search. Thanks for replying.

These threads are always great. I enjoy the fact that you take the time to do them, as I’m sure others do too. They spark a lot of discussion. I was referring specifically to your Bengals v Ravens score prediction, though.

The Ravens appear to be somewhat rejuvenated, which is worrisome. I don’t think Cedric is going to repeat his 100+ yards on the ground this time. I do think that the Ravens, blitzing as they like to do, are going to be vulnerable to the Bengals WR corps. If and only if the oline keeps Palmer upright most of the time, which they have generally been doing all year.

No real disagreement here, though the weather is supposed to be sunny with a high of 66. (You may have been speaking metaphorically, though, in which case I agree.) I give the Giants a puncher’s chance but that’s about it; I certainly wouldn’t put money on them.

The reason I’m responding is the comment about how hard the sky will fall in NY if they lose. It’ll be bad alright, but even worse is they’re going into their bye, so it’ll be two weeks of bad. Ugh.

It was 70 in Chicago today. It’ll probably be gorgeous in NYC tomorrow. I’m guessing the weather will not be an issue. However, I’m still picking the Chargers.
This guy here…is trashed!!!

Know I said I’d predict the Bears game before the weekend, but at this point I can barely type this sentence. Lemme just say this, the Bears are gonna win the game. It’ll be tight and I’m conflicted as to whether Boldin limping around is a benefit to Chicago or not. Part of me thinks a gimpy Boldin is a boon for the Bears and him on the field at 70% is better than Breaston at 100%. Who knows what the end result will be. I’m predicting a big Bears win for no reason other than it’s homefield with nice weather.

The Pick: Bears 27 - Cardinals 22

First week in a good long while where I really like several bets. The biggest ones:
** INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 9 Houston Texans o48 **
Weird O/U. Indy has a great offense and a decent defense. Houston has a very good offense and a terrible defense. How do these two teams put up a lower-scoring game than, say, 31-17? (Checking now, the O/U has moved to 50, which is more reasonable, but still. Gotta get to 51½ before I’d consider it too close to wager.)

** NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 10½ Miami Dolphins 46½ **
Miami’s just a weird team, and they can keep it close against anybody. New England is better, but not, like, in a whole other universe. Would anybody be shocked if Miami won outright? (+480 – pound the money line!) At +9.5 I’m not nearly as enthusiastic, but crossing the 10 makes a huge difference.

** SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 4½ Tennessee Titans 41 **
Vince Young, QBing a 1-6 team that fought like hell against putting him on the field even when their season was clearly gone, on the road, against a good defense. Doesn’t that sound like a 10 point spread? SF -4½: definitely my lock of the week.

Bengals 14, Ravens 0. Bengals have an 11:00 to 1:30 minute TOP advantage.

It;s the Chad Ochocinco show!

WOOT!

I saw a ticker that said Schaub was 8/11 for -20 yards. That right?

Sacks are subtracted from a team’s passing yardage - that might have been the Texans passing net. ESPN’s Gamecast lists Schaub at 10/15 for 76 yards.

Hot Damn!!! My affiliate just switched games from the Bears blowout to the Packers game. Woot!!!

At least I hope Woot! The Bucs are still in this game to my surprise.

And the first play I get to see, is Rodger’s getting sacked on the 1/2 foot line and the Bucs challenging hoping for a safety.

Be careful what you wish for.

Miami could win their division if someone on the team were capable of catching the football.

I need some new swear words. I’ve used all 1,214 I know in this damn Packer game.