The I-Can't-Believe-It's-Not-Omni-Doing-This NFL Playoffs Thread

In My Humble Opinion
1

Well, Omni’s skulking somewhere, leaving us without an NFL playoff thread, which makes me feel like the substitute teacher who comes in and brightly says, “Well, boys and girls, what have you been working on lately?” while the children conspire behind her back and build up an arsenal of spitballs that would violate the START treaty.

Well, anyway… here goes nothing. I can’t say as I’m well informed about any of the games, which should in no way be construed to mean that I don’t have opinions about them.

Game 1: Colts at Ravens. This one goes the Ravens’ way, I do believe, as the Colts falter with their fourth-quarter comeback.

Game 2: Eagles at Saints: I think the Saints. Quarterback versus quarterback, and Jeff Garcia is revealed as the backup he is.

Game 3: Seahawks at Bears: The Bears get to win one game this playoff season, and this one is it. But I bet they’ll be howling Sunday night in Chicago about Grossman’s 1.3 passer rating.

Game 4: Patriots at San Diego. Patriots by a landslide. The problem with the Chargers is that they’re too predictable on offense. Contain LT and Gates, and you’ve contained the entire offense, practically. Meanwhile, the Chargers have no idea what the Patriots are going to show them on offense, just as the Jets last week had no idea so many throws were going to go to Gaffney, or that Kevin Faulk would run it up the middle three plays in a row. I expect to see a lot of blitzes out of SD, and the Pats are going to make them pay for it, just as they did the Jets last week.

That’s my prediction, and thank God I’ve still got a team in the mix. All the Giants and Steelers fans out there on the SDMB will just have to pick another team for the duration.

2

Colts / Ravens: Ravens, in a close one, the home field makes the difference. I can’t see Indy’s defense playing as well again this week as they did last.

Eagles / Saints: Eagles, easily. They’re on too much of a roll. Losing Shepard hurts, but their D should be good enough to keep NO mostly contained.

Seahawks / Bears: Hmmm, Matt Hasselback or Rex Grossman? Which one to take? I predict a big game from Alexander as well. Seahawks by a touchdown.

Patriots / Chargers: Marty takes a cue from Boise State and Florida and goes all wacky on us. LT takes direct snaps and attempts ten passes, Merriman plays some FB, double reverses, the whole bag of tricks… OK maybe the cold medicine is getting to me a little.
This is the hardest for me to pick - I think this game’s winner will win it all. I think the Chargers defense will stop Brady early, the Charges will build up a 10-13 point lead, and then a last minute Brady rally will fall short. Chargers by 3.

3

Damn. After the Giants/Redskins game I will never, ever, ever, ever cheer for the G-Men again. Unless they’re playing a team I want to win. Even then I’ll have to brush my ass with Borax just to feel a little cleaner. :stuck_out_tongue:

Chargers/Patriots:

Brady is a master of the playoffs, and there’s no denying Belichick’s credentials. I just don’t see them winning this game. It’s one thing to say shut down LT and Gates. It’s another thing to actually do it.
Eagles/Saints:

Going with the Saints. I think losing Lito is huge going against the NO offense. Like SD, you have a running back that can, if used properly, effectively give you 2 QBs. And I suspect Joe Horn just signed a new cell service contract.
Colts/Ravens:

I’m picking the Ravens to win the SB, so not much to say. The Chiefs game was an abberation, allowing a sub-par defense to cover an unbeleivably bad game from Manning. (Yeah, his numbers were OK. OK won’t get it done in the playoffs over the long run.)
Seahawks/Bears:

(Disclaimer: Packers stock owner)

Seahawks walk away with this one. By 10 or more. Not because of what Grossman said in the media.* Rather, because even with his foot in his mouth, he still has that interception-cannon for a right arm. If they can get him to throw leftie I can see him maybe finishing the first half.

  • Side note. Remember when Lovie Smith took the helm and said his first goal was to beat the Packers? Then his starting QB said the game against Green Bay wasn’t that important to him so he wasn’t really concentrating on the game? That’s punk. Any worthy Packer fan will tell you a 2-14 season is a success so long as the 2 wins come against the Bears. I can’t believe I was pissed when Chicago took Grossman. I was yelling at the TV that they did it just to keep Green Bay from getting him. :smack:
4

The main event the week is obviously my New Orleans Saints against the Iggles, in the Dome. Eagles have been on a roll, but this ain’t their year. Saints win, and Joe Horn has a big day.

Colts/Ravens–Colts opened up a big can of suck last week against KC. Ravens will Pwn them at home.

Pats/T-Bolts–Going with the T-bolts, The Pats are this year’s Atlanta Braves. Good enough to get to the dance, but that’s about it.

Seahawks/Bears–pulling for the Seahawks this week. If they win and the Saints win, then we host the NFC Championship next week…
**
GEAUX SAINTS**

5

Don’t have enough time to really do an analysis, but… Saints, Ravens, Bears, Pats.

I will note that everyone seems to be overrating the Chargers defense, underrating the Pats defense, and politely ignoring San Diego’s strength of schedule. SD had the weakest SoS of any of the AFC playoff teams, significantly weaker than the Pats, and their defense is “above average” for all that you might think they were “dominating” by how much you hear about them.

As a Pats fan: Not that scared of LT, only a little bit scared of the SD pass rush, VERY VERY HELP ME HELP ME scared of Gates, and loving the SD defensive backs regardless of how much or how little time Brady has to throw. After Gates, most scared that Brady will have one of those games where he’s simply a little bit off, because I still don’t think he’s completely healthy… but sometimes I just need to Have Faith in Tom. Also, I like what Kevin Faulk can do in this sort of game, assuming he holds onto the damn ball.

6

Ravens, Bolts, Saints and Seahawks

As a Seahawks fan, my heart’s saying “yes” but my head is saying “no” for the Bears game. I know that the Seahawks have the capacity to beat any side in the League (as they almost showed last year… damn Steelers), but whether that team shows up on Sunday is another question. I still can’t pick against my team though.

7

Fuck the Ravens in the ass.

While that’s my normal sentiment, it’s been particularly annoying this week, what with the talk of poor Baltimore having their team stolen, and going without football, and all that. Awww.

It would almost be meaningful and sympathetic if those hypocritical syphillitics didn’t do the exact same thing that hurt them so much to another city as soon as they had the chance.

8

I really don’t give a good rat’s ass what happens in the other three games, but the Scumbirds must lose. Oakminster, you’ve got my full backing this week – I’ll be cheering your Saints on every step of the way.

The winner of this one will meet the winner of the Seahawks/Bears game next week to see who represents the NFC in the Super Bowl. Seeing as how both the Saints and Eagles are miles above both the Seahawks and Bears, skillwise, that would mean that the winner here will be heading to Miami next month. And I swear, I won’t be able to take three weeks of my fricking neighbors and their damn Scumbird banners all over the place.

Please, please, please, New Orleans…send the dirt-eating chokemasters back down to earth!
Ah, what the hell…I also say it’ll be the Colts, Chargers and Bears.

9

Did anyone see the crowd shot in the 1st quarter of the Eagles/Saints game? During a time out or whatever, they cut to a cute blonde in the crowd. She was wearing a crop top with gold lettering. Perhaps someone else can confirm this, but I believe her shirt said “FUCK OFF EAGLES”.

10

It actually said FUCK DA EAGLES.

I wonder how much FOX will be fined for that one.

11

OK, the Ravens went down. I’m happy with that. I’m kinda rooting for the Eagles, and so far they are up by 1. But I think it could go either way.

All in all though, I’m just happy that the Ravens went down! :slight_smile:

12

Me too. I didn’t see this thread, so I appended my post to the end of my yearly thread. Anyway, the substance of it was essentially this:

Hey, Weirddave and mhendo: bwahahahaha!

13

You know, this has been the best day of playoffs in history that didn’t involve the Steelers. The Rats and the Iggles are going home without a ring, the Iggles for the 47th consecutive year. God but I love football. :smiley:

14

OH HELL YEAH!

Biggest win in franchise history for my Saints. Veteran leadership from Deuce McAllister. Solid contributions from Reggie, Colston, and Billy Miller. Cooper comes up with a clutch fumble recovery. Henderson caught a long pass. Defense comes up huge after the late turnover. Sam Mills is smiling tonight.

Wild Victory Boogie Here

Tommorrow, every Saints fan is going be pulling for Seattle…

GEAUX SEAHAWKS!

15

Maybe Jamal Lewis could hook the team up with some coke to dull the pain a little bit.

Woot.

16

I thought I was going to have a heart attack, but the Saints (my #2 team) pulled it off. I’m pulling for the Seahawks tomorrow, but frankly I think the Saints will win next week no matter if it’s the Bears or the Seahawks they’re playing.

As for the AFC, I’m thinking the Chargers will go to the Super Bowl, and win; my entry in the SB predictions thread was Chargers 38, Saints 20.

17

As strange as it may seem, I’m betting on the team that beat my beloved Eagles (hometown heroes since I was old enough to understand sports) tonight to win it all, or at least get to the Super Bowl!

Yeah, the Saints. I lived in Lafayette, Louisiana for eight years and watched my (now former) in-laws be disappointed by them year after year after year, as they’ve done for decades.

The Eagles win was only the second playoff victory in franchise history! It’s the Saints turn to stun the nation.

I have no hard feelings to The Big Easy for tonight’s tragic win to my favorite team; in fact, I want to see them win it all.

Granted, that prediction is based more on emotion than logic, but it sure would be, as the sportswriters have been calling it, “a great Cinderella story.”

18

I had a feeling the Colts were going to win, since they won the same kind of game last week. If only I’d thought to post about it. :rolleyes:

Very happy the Saints won. It’s impossible not to feel good for them, and it was a high-quality, exciting game. I’m not expecting great play from Bears-Seahawks, although it might be fun to see four defensive TDs in one game. Pats-Chargers ought to be really good, though.

19

Oh, and does anyone else think that fake punt from the Saints before the halftime was stupid? Usually, this is one of those “genius if it works, stupid if it fails” sorts of deals with results-oriented idiots.

Normally, I like to err on the side of aggression. I think NFL coaches in general are far too conservative and risk averse.

But in this case, the potential costs and benefits just dictate not doing it.

You’re at your own 30 or so, with under a minute left, IIRC. Something like 4th and 12, so it’s not an easy conversion. If you fail, it’s almost a guaranteed score for your opponent in a close game, as well as a momentum turner. However, if you succeed, it’s far from a guaranteed score for you - you still have to go more than half the field with something like 40 seconds on the clock. I’m going to count touchdowns as being worth 7 points.

So, let’s say that the play has a 30% chance of working, because it’s so unexpected - and let’s say that when it’s successful, 10% of the time you go on to score a touchdown, and 25% of the time you go on to kick a field goal. If it fails, 55% of the time your opponent gets a field goal (they’re already in range), 25% they get a touchdown.

So, you score a touchdown 3% of the time, making that aspect of the play worth, on average, .21 points. The field goal aspect is worth .225. So, on average you’re earning .435 points, as in, less than half a point. You have a 10.5% chance of scoring at all.

However, the average value potential of failing and your opponent getting a touchdown is 1.225 and their value for a field goal is 1.155. Equally 2.38 points. 56% of the time, they will score.

So you, on average, score .435 points, while your opponents score 2.38 points, making the decision fundamentally unsound. This ignores any psychological/momentum factors, which more strongly favor the opponent anyway.

20

Well the Eagles game was close though out. I was kinda rooting for them, but am not too broken up. Today’s games should be interesting.