Warning, I’m going to ramble a lot. Feel free to TLDR.
I am intrigued by the rationale of picking the Giants to win the game. The Giants are certainly hot, they’ve played some very good football the last two weeks, and impressed against the Falcons. They’ve taken great QB’s out of their game before (their Super Bowl win over Brady), they have a QB having a great season and some talent at WR to keep up in case of a shootout, and their running game is coming along recently. There are also the Packers’ concerns on their O Line (Clifton’s performance at LT will be one of the most important head to head matchups of the game), and a spotty defense that gives up a ton of yards, and I can easily see why people pick the Giants. In fact, the line on the game went from the Packers by 9 on Monday to 7 1/2 this weekend, which tells me a lot of people are putting their money on the Giants.
But then I look at the season as a whole and the Giants are woefully inconsistent. They got swept by the Redskins. The Redskins? They got destroyed by the Saints, they got beat by the Packers before, and they got beat by the Seahawks in a shootout. They’re vaunted defense is giving up 25 points a game (25th in the league), they give up 255 yards of passing a game (29th in the league), and are last in the league in rushing yardage.
To me, picking the Giants is picking the hot team, a team that has, for 3 weeks, been playing very well and getting victories (kinda like the Packers last year). But the thing is the Packers are also hot. They’re 15-1, are at home, coming off a bye week, are mostly healthy, and getting some playmakes back. Of course I’m picking the Packers. I really hope, however, that more and more people pick the Giants, because I think some of the Packers play better with a chip on their shoulders.
As to the game itself, the story-line most commentators focus on is the battle between the Giants D line vs. the Packers O line. The Giants can bring pressure with their front 4, which lets them not have to blitz to create pressure (something you don’t want to have to do to Aaron Rodgers). That worked for the Chiefs, who had at least 5 DB’s on 86% of the plays in their win against the Pack. And the Packers O line has been replete with injuries and hasn’t gelled of late. They get back their two starting tackles (Clifton and Bulaga) from injury for these playoffs, but Clifton wasn’t good when he was starting, so their are some huge concerns.
There are other important factors (drops by receivers on the Packers, will the crafty but old Charles Woodson be able to contain the young but talented Victor Cruz in the slot, home field advantage with the Packers being 13-0 at Lambeau recently, the death of the Packers Offensive Coordinator’s son, that weak-ass Giants’ secondary) that will certainly effect the outcome of the game.
By and large I think the biggest single factor will be the turnovers. The Packers are second in the league in turnover differential, and they set a record this year for most interceptions in a season. They certainly give up a ton of yards, but they also play a high risk get the takeaway game. When the Chiefs beat the Packers that was the only game the Packers played this year where they didn’t get a turnover. I will also point out Eli Manning is 7th in interceptions this year with 16 (although he only has 1 in their last 3 games). So who will we get on Sunday? Good Eli or Bad Eli?
I know it’s not going out on a huge limb to say this, but I think turnovers will be the biggest factor. If the Packers can win the turnover battle, stay even, or maybe even go down by one turnover, they will win. But if the Giants get a turnover differential of at least +2, I think they win the game. And looking at the QB’s in this game, I’m going to go with Rodgers (6 interceptions all season) against the Giants defense (20 int’s) over Eli (16) against the Packers D (31).
As a final note, I must say how damn happy I am to have Aaron Rodgers under center rather than Brett Favre. I don’t think the Giants can count on Rodgers throwing a pick to lose the game in overtime this time.