As a fellow Spurs fan I feel your pain. This loss sucked, especially after that fantastic Europa league game. We should be tied for 5th after picking up 3 points, instead we got beat badly and looked terrible in the second half. This hurt way worse than the Man City game where the loss was almost bad luck.
I don’t know that there is anything definitive that has been written about possession stats and what they mean. At least nothing that I have seen that strikes me as rigorous (I am coming from the perspective of a baseball/sabermetric fan.) I know that in hockey they have been using shots taken as a predictive stat with some success. Not sure if that translates 1-1 here, but my gut says that chances created would work similarly. Possession seems to be meaningless (at least to my eyes, which haven’t actually done any research).
United fans have to be happy with getting a point from the game today (particularly given with how the match went), a convincing win would have given some hope of us still being title contenders but that was always in the realms of fantasy. Everyone seems to agree about Chelsea being the top dogs this season and I can only concur, sadly. Fortunately my local team, Bristol City, also remain unbeaten and top the third division.
Also agree that Man City have got a tough job to qualify for the CL knockout stage, it would be massively disappointing for them if they fail as that has surely got to be their primary target this season. Liverpool likewise, they seem to have slipped back into a transitional phase after their promise of last season.
Regarding stats, I think there is normally a strong correlation between possession and shots, and results. That’s why it is remarked on when the final result does not follow these stats, as that is relatively unusual. But that’s the beauty of football - you only need one shot to score a goal, and you can have many shots without scoring.
This guy looked at 4 years of EPL data (throwing out all the draws for some reason) and saw that teams with more shots won 63% of the games they didn’t draw, and teams with more shots on target won 72% of their non-drawn games. Presumably the chance of victory would be even more dramatic if we looked at games in which the margin was significant, since this data includes games in which one team had just a couple more shots than the opponent.
I would guess that possession time is less predictive, since inferior teams playing for a draw or respectable loss will often take a lot of time kicking the ball around, winning the “possession battle” while rarely mounting a serious attack.
Conclusion: I will curse the fickle football gods that deprived us of well-earned points against Newcastle, then remember that we drew at Arsenal despite losing the SoT battle 13-4 and shut my mouth.
That’s interesting and makes sense to me. I don’t follow hockey closely but they seem to be figuring out how to capture and predict games with constant action better than anyone else so I am starting to read some of that stuff and what you posted lines up with what they are finding in hockey (though I think they found that it didn’t matter if the shot was on target or not, but but the difference in net size probably accounts for the difference.)
I’ve been working Saturdays so I haven’t been following as closely as I usually do. Today I put it on and looked at the league table.
Has everything gone crazy over there? Chelsea in 1st, Southampton in 2nd? I know it’s early, but 9 games in ought to be enough time to have an idea about what is what.
It seems that Man U’s decline is a real one, they can’t blame Moyes for this year. Aston Villa, recently a solid mid-pack team, is flirting with the relegation zone. Man U, Arsenal, Tottenham, and Liverpool are well down. But Southampton? In 2nd? I might have to root for them to win it all, wouldn’t that be a real kick in the nuts? Of course, Chelsea is never anything to sneer at, and Man City isn’t really that far back yet. But man, it is good to see some new blood up top.
The real question, though, is how the new blood is paying for this performance. What would be a real kick in the nuts would be if they upped their payrolls to an unsustainable level and ended up pulling a Blackburn Rovers, cutting costs, and dropping two or three tiers almost immediately, or worse, going into administration.
Looks like I have some reading to do. But one thing is for certain, this isn’t the same Premier League as it was even 2 years ago.
Check that…Looks like I picked a good year to become a Newcastle supporter! Have they turned the corner?
Airman, I agree with most of what you say. As a Man U fan, they have had a bit of bad luck with injuries so far this year, and I hope LVG is given time to build a squad (something that was denied to Moyes, perhaps on the basis that it didn’t look like he was moving far or fast enough in that direction, whereas LVG has spent big and now needs time to make it work). I still think they will make a much better challenge to finish in the top 4 than last season, even if they don’t quite make it.
I’m pleased to see Southampton up there, particularly because as far as I can see, they actually lost a lot of their best players (and their manager) in the summer so I assume their wage bill has fallen, if anything. They seem to have a good youth policy, have made some canny signings on the (relative) cheap, and a decent young manager. Personally, I would be amazed if they remain in the top 4 come the end of the season (9 games is less than a quarter of the way through, after all) but it would be great if they did.
Only one nitpick with your post - Villa have been flirting with relegation for a few seasons now, they are no longer the reliably mid-table side they used to be, I think because of a chronic lack of investment in the squad.
Not sure - but they are certainly in better shape than a couple of weeks back. Only one thing is for certain - it’s always an interesting time to be a Newcastle supporter!
Chelsea is legit; I think they’re the best side in the league. Southampton, my personal favorite, have had a friendly schedule thus far, only playing two of the big seven through 10 matches (away losses to Liverpool and Tottenham). But they have been wonderfully consistent against the lower table teams, something easier said than done and I think they’ll have more than 30 points at the midway point of the schedule. With a continuing slump by Everton and maybe a couple of others, there is a genuine chance for a Europa League spot for the Saints.
It’s important to remember that it’s only been 10 games. There are 28 more to go! Lots of time for things to change. Last year, Arsenal were at the top of the table for something like over 100 days, yet sadly finished fourth.
This year, things ARE looking up. We’re fourth on the table, yes. We’re plagued with injuries, yes. But the midfield is starting to gel again, Alexis Sanchez is in superb form, and back four are holding up acceptably well lately, despite the injured and missing Koscielny and Debuchy. We’ve only lost one game: the second fewest after Chelsea (who unfortunately haven’t lost, yet). I see Arsenal continuing to gain steam after slow start, especially with Walcott back in the lineup. I’m not about to claim Arsenal are going to make a run for the trophy, but I don’t think it’s at all safe to write off the season.
The Saints are living the dream, but I doubt it will last.
As we head into December, with the rentboys running away with the title, City fighting Southampton for second, the rags creeping up into the UCL spots and West Ham? in fifth?, a friend and I have been wondering:
What’s up with the Premier League schedule in December? We’ve got weekday matches all of the sudden, much to the dismay of us here in the states who have jobs and stuff. We’ve got clubs playing more than one match per week in the Premier League (not counting UCL and cup ties, of course)–City, for example, will be playing Sunderland midweek after Southampton tomorrow. My speculation was that this is to make some room for the FA cup ties as we head in to the new year, but it’s really just speculation. Anyone care to help me out?
Bumping in hopes that someone will respond to the question above…I have nothing, although it is my impression that the league always plays a full slate on December 26 regardless of the day of the week, so this year everyone will play 2 games in three days. Maybe now that the Champions League group stage is ending they need TV programming to fill those Wednesday slots? Anyway, sorry I will miss Tottenham’s big away win at Chelsea tomorrow.
I suspect your speculation is close to the mark, but I don’t know for sure.
I can’t comment on early December games but certainly Christmas and New Year have always been choc full of games. Teams are expected to play multiple times a week in and around Christmas. Personally, I enjoy it. It’s refreshing to have footballers play in between such short rest periods even if managers(particularly foreign managers) continually moan about it. It’s a tradition in the Bitish game I love. Plus, in part it’s me gloating at the fact these overpaid prima donnas cant enjoy themselves socially during the festive season.This is especially true as I sit in the pub hating myself for weighing 4lbs heavier than the day before with a refreshing beer in my hand.
The busy schedule in December and January is par for the course.
This year’s schedule is almost identical to last year. There was a slate of mid-week games on December 3 (9 games) and December 4 (1 game) last season; this season it’s on December 2-3.
There will be a full slate on December 26 and a full slate on New Year’s Day, just like last season. This is in addition to a full slate of Sunday matches on December 28, meaning that all EPL teams will play three games in a week over the holiday period.
Here are the two fixture lists:
This happens when you have to fit 38 league games, as well as a whole bunch of cup games, and a full European schedule for the clubs who make it, into a nine-month time period.
So pretty much as I thought–thanks.
Yes, I was rather enjoying playing the world’s smallest fiddle just for Louis Van Gaal when he was moaning about the schedule earlier this week.
Boxing Day is like a bonus Saturday!
But, man, they play an awful lot of games in a year. Even as a new fan, I could see the toll the schedule took on teams with less deeper rosters by the time April and May rolled around (I’m looking at you, Atletico Madrid). Even with just Cup games intermixed (along with the international games involving their players) Southampton’s thin roster is being a little exposed.
I’m hoping it will be exposed even further today … Go GUNNERS!
(Of course our roster is a bit thin as well, entirely because of all those damn injuries!)
Hey, Wenger guaranteed you guys a title before his contract is out. stifled gigglesnort
I’m very concerned for City today–not a good fixture for us in the past, Kompany out, not to mention Silva, Dzeko… I suspect I’ll be watching it this evening from behind my scarf.
The last time Saints visited the Emirates it went pretty well for them. Could be hard to do that again, though. 
I’m pretty worried about them heading into this difficult stretch of games without nearly enough healthy midfielders.
Gunners earn a deserved three points against the Saints.
Which … puts us just behind West Ham.
sigh