The postseason heroics will likely make the case for Papi more compelling. And as far as WAR is concerned, I personally think it underrates career DHs, because (A) the formulas simply assume there is an ample player base to draw from to fill the slot, and (B) anybody can hit just as well while DHing as they can while playing the field. I am deeply skeptical of both (interrelated) assumptions.
I’m going to go out on a limb and postulate that Bonds and Clemens will go in before Papi shows up on the ballot, which will probably help his case a bit (as in the voting landscape 10 years from now might not resemble the present one, at all).
I predict that Bonds and Clemens eventually get inducted, but Ortiz never does. He’s just not good enough, especially with zero defensive contribution. And DH isn’t a position, like relief pitcher, it’s just a refuge for crappy athletes.
I guess I just was opposed to your wording, then, because what you said was that they “still haven’t figured out DH” which implies some sort of voting confusion on their part. But there is no confusion because there isn’t a pool of candidates to be confused about. They have precisely one candidate so far, Edgar Martinez, and while there is a case to be made for him his results are no outrage just yet. Martinez was no greater a player than Lou Whitaker or Alan Trammell or Tim Raines.
It will be interesting to see how Ortiz is treated. His case is very up and down; even given a few more good years he will clearly NOT be the best available candidate for election, but he’s immensely likeable and popular, has a terrific playoff resume, played in ESPN’s spotlight and so on and so forth. The PED thing hasn’t stuck to him as much as it maybe should have, although it appears for now that the BBWAA is casting aspersions on pretty much every power hitter from the roids era. I’ll say this, though; if the votes break down the way you describe them, he’s in the Hall of Fame for sure. Anyone who had HALF the vote sewn up to start with gets in. That’s not confusion, that’s a foregone conclusion.
The hell it is! LISTEN, KID! I’ve been hearing that crap ever since I was at Minnesota. I’m out there busting my buns every night. Tell your old man to try hitting Rivera or Halliday 4-6 times a game.
Once some of the A-list guys get in and more attention is paid to Martinez and Ortiz I think we’re in for a few years of argument about how much a great DH is worth. I’m not sure there is a consensus there. But the BBWAA isn’t in a state of utter confusion; there just haven’t been many candidates. There’s Edgar Martinez and Paul Molitor and not too much else. Molitor got in and DH might’ve been his primary position, but he played 44% of his games at DH compared to 72% for Martinez. And there is more working against Martinez than the fact that he was a DH. He also didn’t become an everyday players until his age 27 season. He kept playing until he was 41, but if he’d been able to field or break into the lineup earlier, he’d have a stronger case. I did vote for him in this poll, though.
I’m inclined to think that if Big Papi had spent his career as a bad left fielder or a bad first baseman, he’d probably be a lock to get elected eventually.
But I’m not sure he’d have been MORE valuable to his team if he’d been a bad left fielder (the Red Sox already had a bad left fielder, of course!) or a loust first baseman.
I’m relying on Bill James’ Hall of Fame Monitor that estimates the total “points” accumulated by a player that count towards a HOF election/selection. It’s something he came up with about 20 years ago
There’s a rating at the bottom of every player page on Baseball-Reference.com, and it’s James attempt to weight reaching career milestones, peak years, post season highlights, awards, etc. James uses 100 as the average score of a HOFer, with a score of 130 being a virtual cinch. E. Martinez has a score of 132, while Ortiz also is at 132, and still playing. Whitaker = 92, Trammel 118. Again, the score doesn’t indicate James’ preference of who should get in, just an attempt to compare candidate’s accomplishments with HOFers accomplishments.
Of course, there is no HOFer that is a DH, so the question is how much of a penalty will be applied… and they haven’t figured that one out yet. But Ortiz will end up considerably past the 130 “Cinch” number, and I think he’ll be a shoo-in to most American League writers who are pretty comfortable with the DH.
I don’t think Ortiz has much of a PED problem, or at least he won’t in another 7 years or so. (barring any discovery.) He’s never been accused of any use by the league, nor has any investigation turned up any evidence of usage. Nor has he admitted to such.
His only taint was being one of 92 that turned up positive, in a supposedly confidential survey of MLB players 10 years ago. The players who tested positive, where not notified at the time, and thus not aware they tested positive or what they tested positive for. They thus had no right of appeal or ask for a second test (and about 8% of the time there is a false positive.)
I’m not going to say Ortiz never used PEDS, because I suspect about 80% of players at the beginning of the decade did. But there were users and there were USERS. Ortiz has never failed a drug test, no has any one dug up anything, and I’d have to think, that given his profile, that a number of investigative reporters have looked into his background in the DR.
Andy Pettitte admitted to HGH after it came up in an investigation. Of course he lied about how long he had used, then was caught in that lie, and then admitted to the whole truth. Of course he swore on the Bible that he was finally telling the whole truth, apologized to the Baby Jesus, and I think Pettitte gets in the HOF.
This is a wee bit self-contradictory. It’s possible this will be in the rear view mirror when he retires, but he did fail a test. And some of the other “tainted” players never failed a test either.
Papi will only not have a PED problem because nobody else will by then, either. The pretended (or misguided) outrage is fading rapidly already, for good reason.
I hate to get technical, but Ortiz did not “fail” any test, since the 2003 tests were not pass or fail , were administered without threat of penalty and without notification to the participants. It was leaked by unauthorized personnel that he tested postive, but I don’t think MLB has confirmed nor told him what he might have tested positive for.
(It would be like if the Police set up a Drunk Driving checkpoint to see how big a problem drunk driving was in my town, and then gave me and all the other drivers breathalyzer tests, with no threat of arrest and no notification. Then 8 years from now an ex cop, who doesn’t identify himself, tells the town paper that Bellhorn blew a 0.9 back on NYEVE 2014.)
What other tainted players never failed a test or never admitted to it or had any credible allegations made against them? I don’t consider Piazza or Bagwell to be tainted, since nothing credible that I know of has been raised. I’m 99% sure they’ll get in.
And give the smallest of small “taints” against Ortiz, I’m pretty sure it won’t stick around to HOF eligibility. I may be regionally biased, but isn’t Ortiz the #1 or #2"feel-good" running story of this new century? Rivera maybe? Pujols until he took the money and ran off to Disneyland. I get that it’s a crock/hype, but I think it makes Ortiz teflon coated. Same with Andy Pettitte and his being on the same bowling team with Jesus, Mary and Joseph.
There’s nothing particularly credible, but it’s still been enough to keep them from being voted in. It’s not hard to find pieces speculating that they both must’ve used PEDs.
He knew what he was taking without having to get any test results. Do please note that he was noticeably bulkier then than now, as well.
Both his performance and his durability are better today, now that he’s finally completed his detox from whatever it was. If he’d had to hang 'em up after last year, no question he’d be out. Now, he has a good chance.
There may be no test results or finger-pointing or leaks, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a taint. Suspicion remains that they were merely lucky not to get caught. That is hard to erase for those who think it matters.
What if Ortiz’ test was one of the false positives? MLB and the MLBPA agree that 8% of the tests yield false positives, which is why, in today’s tests they keep it confidential until a second test is run. Or what if Ortiz was under a doctor’s prescription for something that yielded a postive test? Or what if a teammate gave him a creme that had a banned substance in it? (The Sheffield alibi, I believe.) I think there’s reasonable doubt (1 in 4) that Ortiz has no idea what he was using/not using when he found out he tested positive almost 8 years after the fact.
Ortiz has not tested positive since. He played with his big body through 2010, but in that year he had his one mediocre year (OPS+ = 102) and decided to lose weight after that. His last two years, slimmed down, he’s been close to his peak. So how does that pattern indicate PED use.
It’s always possible that Ortiz has found a way to mask PED use, but that usually involves working with some lab, which leaves some kind of trail for investigative reporters. And Ortiz has to have been a big target, because nailing Ortiz would be very newsworthy, given his stature.
I understand that you think he’s tainted, but I think it pales in comparison to all those that have been far more incriminated. I just don’t think his small level of ‘taint’ will be an issue 7 or 8 years down the road. Sheffield and Pettitte are going to get in, and they’re more tainted that Big Papi.
I think Ortiz far bigger obstacle, will be how some voters deal with the DH. If they devalue his career by 30%, he still gets in. But if some clown like Murray Chass says since he only played offense, than you should devalue his career by 50%, then there’s a problem. Also concerned about writers who’ve only resided in NL cities and think the DH is an abomination.