It starts next Friday with the opening games being NZ v Sri Lanka and the Aussies against the [del]South African rejects led by an Irishman[/del] English.
Looking forward to it and all I can say is COME ON PAKISTAN!!! or
Please don’t fail too badly
Will the Aussie’s return to the top. The Kiwi’s reach the promised land? The Indians actually play well overseas? How will SA choke this time
The only confident prediction I have is that England will have periods of adequacy.
Australia are rightly favourites, there are a group of teams that are clustered below them whose success will be more due to the tosses they win, the pitches they play on and their mindset on the day than their actual inherent talent.
Then there are the wildcard teams…though they won’t win the whole thing they can certainly affect the outcomes. strange things can happen.
The Kiwis are starting off more favored than I ever remember. Third favorites after AUS and SA.
Conversely my team Pakistan are going in with lower expectation than ever. At 16-1 they’d be worth a flutter. Their bowling in particular does not inspire confidence, though.
Yasir Shah is quite a revelation. He dominated the Aussies back in the Autumn series. I think he could be crucial. Plus Mohammad Irafan will be more than a handful in Antipodeoan conditions.
England have a decent chance I say. Anderson is becoming more lethal and Morgan has captaincy imagination that Cook lacked.
Strangely, I think that Sri Lanka and SA are the least likely of the big teams to do well. SL have peaked too soon, after the fantastic year the had last year and three KO matches are going to be difficult for SA and their chokers to beat.
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Conversely my team Pakistan are going in with lower expectation than ever. At 16-1 they’d be worth a flutter. Their bowling in particular does not inspire confidence, though.
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Worst odds in a WC since…1992.
Has it been four years already? How time flies.
New Zealand have looked impressively good at home against Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Still I can’t help feeling that we’ll stumble in the semis yet again (seriously 6 World Cup semifinal losses and we call South Africa chokers?). Personally I think the sub-continent teams all look pretty average, so my semifinal picks are NZ, Australia, South Africa and England.
The groups are:
England, Australia, Sri Lanka, New Zealand, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Scotland in group A
South Africa, India, Pakistan, West Indies, Zimbabwe, Ireland, UAE in group B.
The top four of each go through to the quarter finals - no super 6s this year.
In group A, it’s hard to see past Australia, Sri Lanka, New Zealand and England for qualifying. Group B is more interesting, with the West Indies imploding, it’s possible that Zimbabwe or Ireland could sneak through.
Australia will win it though.
Michael Vaughan thinks that only Australia, NZ or SA can win it. He knows of which he speaks, leading England to ignominy in 2007 …
I must admit the recent rise of NZ had escaped me, good to see!
Paddy Power odds:
Australia 2/1
Sri Lanka 10/1
Ireland 750/1
South Africa 3/1
Pakistan 16/1
Afghanistan 1000/1
New Zealand 5/1
West Indies 28/1
UAE 2500/1
England 8/1
Bangladesh 250/1
Scotland 2500/1
India 9/1
Zimbabwe 500/1
Based on what I’m reading, as a co-host, NZ might be the value play at 5:1.
If England are 4th favourites for this tournament, I either seriously under-estimate them, seriously over-estimate the other nations or there is a very large gap between the likes of Aus, SA and NZ and everyone else. I cannot see how England string together enough performances in a row to win this. Whenever they play well in ODI cricket, they seem to immediately follow with a capitulation in the next match. Allied to the fact that they currently can’t beat Australia, I can’t see any way that they win three knock out matches in a row (assuming they don’t fall over against Scotland or Bangladesh).
It’s Oz, SA or NZ for me. Would love it if NZ actually did it. Oz probably will do it.
I’m sure you know this, but it’s worth pointing out that the odds aren’t just based on who they think will win, but on the amount of money gamblers are spending on them.
I do know this but we’ve already got Lisiate with us in the semi finals and AK84 saying we have a decent chance. I just don’t see it at all. Out in the quarters for me. Pakistan have more chance than England I reckon.
It’s more a process of elimination really. India and Sri Lanka have been down here for months and been schooled by Australia and New Zealand (although to be fair Malinga might bring Sri Lanka up about). Pakistan has been a shambles this month (losing to New Zealand by 100+ runs and 7 wickets). The West Indies are awful and the rest have no chance at all. So I’m picking England by default to join hte southern hemisphere teams.
My prediction - the group stages will largely be a formality (I suppose WI might be bad enough to give Ireland or Zimbabwe a chance, but the other 7 quarter-finalists are pretty much nailed on). Here’s hoping we’re not in for a succession of meaningless games followed by one-sided quarters and semis followed by a coronation (think 2007).
After that, I’m with the crowd - Aus, SA, NZ (who have been in ferocious form of late). They have the muscle. Forget containment - to win a modern World Cup you need batsmen (more than one or two) who can hit 50-ball 100s and 100-ball 150s, and you need bowlers who can get those batsmen out. Particularly in Australia, where spin counts for little and the hard pitches favour fast scoring.
(That’s where England always come up short - they get the other side 150 off 30 and think they’re getting somewhere. A couple of hours later, they’re chasing 300 - 350, falling behind early and losing wickets as they try to accelerate)
NZ have McCullum, Kane Williamson, Corey Anderson and a solid bowling unit. SA have De Villiers and Dayle Stein. Aus have Maxwell and Mitchell Johnson.
England don’t have a batsman I’d back in a chase of 350. India don’t have a bowler I’d back with the opposition 100-2 in the 20th. Sri Lanka are aging, Pakistan are a mess. The lucky one of these four will make up the numbers in the semis.
I hope it’s NZ - it’s a less-than-once-a-generation chance for them - and I hope it’s a contest.
Let’s not crown NZ just yet - Zimbabwe almost bowled them out for less than 200 yesterday…
The Pakistan supporter in me would like to point out that tournaments which start with “Pakistan are a mess” tends to end with “Pakistan won”.;)
Not this time though, I suspect, but hey one can hope.
The biggest issue for the Southern Hemisphere teams is the fact that they all have been playing more or less continuously for months. That really might show in the second round, where tiredness could be a factor. Sri Lanka, I think this team reached its peak last year, but still could go all the way. Of course it also depends on the QF draw. At present Sri Lanka, England and NZ are on target to play either Pakistan or India in that round is the finish 2 or 3 and SA if they finish 4.
Maori TV is replaying Fire in Babylon as I type. Time to relive my childhood when the West Indies were the greatest team in the world…
That team had great [del] cheating umpires who twice screwed Imran’s boys out of series victories [/del] players. Malcolm Marshall, Michael Holding, Colin Croft, Joel Garner , Andy Roberts, Viv Richards, Clive Lloyd
Yeah, well there’s no fun backing favourites so to be contrarian:
I reckon we’ll see a final between NZ and SA with the Kiwis getting the silverware after SA does an SA as only SA can do. Beautiful to watch. 
The Kiwis are in rare form and are playing so many games at home. Might even be possible that they play every game bar the final at home?
In the the recent Big Bash spinners performed very well for all franchises and at all grounds. The word is that the boundary ropes are to be out as far as possible which will help more. I think they’ll be a significant factor.
The Aussies have oodles of talent but Clarke shouldn’t be in the team IMHO for any number of reasons (I’d save him for the Ashes) and the loss/injury of Faulkner will hurt.
I reckon they’ll monster every game in the prelims, win the quarter final in a canter then find themselves losing wickets and under the kosh in the semi and blow it. If they make the final, they’ll win.
I was about ready to agree with you - England haven’t really shown much fight or skill in ODI’s recently (or… at all). But take a look at the groups. If England can avoid being fourth in the table (and thus presumably facing South Africa in the quarters), they could find themselves facing India (who they have been beating in the preliminary series) or Pakistan, who have problems of their own. I can definitely see a semi-final for England in those circumstances.
Of course, rising above 4th in a group that includes two of the favourites and the traditionally ODI-strong Sri Lanka could well be beyond us.