Yeah, I think the Clinton fans fail to understand that Hillary has a probable ceiling of support out there.
As risky as it is to nominate a “socialist Jew” who may not even have the party’s money behind him, there is some fraction of Americans who will stay home or vote third party or something rather than vote for a Clinton. As my grandmother once said, “I don’t like her ethics.” And Grandma was not overly given to talking about politicians, that I noticed.
Whereas for Bernie, the sky’s the limit! :rolleyes:
Every politician has a ceiling of support. That’s not the question. The question is just how high that ceiling is.
He’s seen as honest and he mobilizes lower-income voters, so no, not the sky, but apparently (in hypothetical polls,* still)* higher than HRC.
Whatever, we may have a couple of months of Bernie support gradually growing until it’s clear even to you. Enjoy your smug superiority after Super Tuesday, when Hillary may have her highest proportion of delegates for the rest of the campaign. I expect a full month of you crowing that it’s over and he can’t catch up until he catches up and you eat crow.
Me, I’m looking at trends and suddenly surprisingly sanguine. I think Bernie’s ground game is probably going to work, and the Democratic Party will (eventually) be a better institution for it.
As I said upthread, if Bernie catches up he’d better catch up in the popular vote as well, not just in pledged delegates. Otherwise, count on the superdelegates giving it to Hillary.
Well, yes, I was speaking of his popular support, thanks.
Sanders may appeal to these voters, but whether he can mobilize them is a different thing altogether, and very much remains to be seen.
Congresswoman (and veteran) Tulsi Gabbard resigned from the DNC to endorse Bernie Sanders,* after *South Carolina blowout. She apparently can’t stand by and let Hillary run US foreign policy.
I’m amused that I came here to post this and there’s a SlackerInc thread talking about HRC’s “love and kindness.”
Apparently this news is providing you some solace, so far be it for me to get in the way.
Okay, I just figured out why I had such a hard time believing Sanders supporters would vote for Trump: because in my particular social media circles, the only type of Sanders supporters I’ve seen are the one supporting him specifically for his policies. I guess I just didn’t think that there would or could be anyone who didn’t, but I think I can see how that can happen, if not completely.
I still think that the number of Trump voters who would’ve supported Sanders is insignificant, and that the vast majority will vote for Clinton or a third party, or just stay home. What the proportions are will depend on the other nominee and whether Sanders specifically exhorts his supporters to support Clinton if he’s not the nominee.
There are apparently a few who like Sanders because they just hate Hilary Clinton. If he should lose the nomination, they’ll vote for Trump. Or vote for some 3rd party candidate–which will have the same effect.
A hypothetical: obviously the worst case scenario for Sanders is for him to be nominated and lose handily to Trump. I see very few Sanders supporters who believe this can possibly happen, for obvious reasons, but I wonder how they would explain it if it did?
Not that things are necessarily trending that way in the current polls, but I was curious.
I don’t like Sanders because I hate Hilary, but I don’t like Hilary. I will vote for her if necessary, but I’ll see it as yet another vote for the lesser of 2 evils. My fear is that lots of other dems, seeing another election of unpalatable candidates on both sides, will stay home, and the next day we’ll have President Trump due to low voter turnout.
Leaper, I doubt you’ll get any answers from actual Sanders supporters, but my hunch is they would blame Hillary Clinton somehow for being insufficiently supportive of him, maybe blame black voters, and of course the “corporate media”.
Boyo Jim, I have already predicted that Trump will lose to Clinton big, probably by double digits. But I will further predict that the contest will bring out huge numbers of Latino voters as well as single women, who have become a huge force in the electorate. Perhaps white male Democrats will not similarly see huge turnout, but the overall turnout for Democrats will be high, mark my words.
I hope you’re right. I would hate to see “Hail to The Donald” played by military bands.
<shudder>
That site requires logging on. Can you summarize?
A lot of Bernie’s support is younger voters who might not be party affiliated yet. Both Bernie and Trump are outsiders pledged to shaking up the system. Young, disaffected voters might prefer a vibrant Trump to a status quo Hillary.
Okay, fine, that introduces a question I’ve had for a while: what proportion of Sanders supporters, especially the enthusiastic ones, do you think support him “just” because he’s an outsider who speaks his mind, and what proportion support him because they believe in his values and policies?
Because by my (admittedly limited) experience, the latter is the much larger group, and given that, I don’t see how any of them would support Trump, who runs anathema to everything Bernie advocates and holds dear. Third party, absolutely. Hillary — many of them DO believe in lesser of two evils. But not Trump, who represents the worst excesses and arrogance of the 1% they loathe.
ETA: And sorry about the link; I didn’t realize that it required a login. Basically, it was an electoral map based on current polls from Real Clear Politics and other such sources that apparently show Trump blowing out Hillary electorially, and vice versa for Sanders.
Do you not get that some people are protectionist, and believe in taking care of Americans’ problems first, over whatever we think we’re doing in the rest of the world? That sentiment flows very heavily to Trump, but also to Sanders over Clinton.
Cruz will lose many of them for being against domestic spending in the form of jobs & pensions. Hillary gets some of them for other reasons, but is a Clinton, and thus tied to NAFTA.
Trump and Sanders offer different solutions, but the people they’re speaking to overlap a good deal. Think of those who are working class, patriotic, & think America should take care of our own. Trump emphasizes things differently, but the difference is which side of a person the candidate appeals to.
Add in concerns about any candidate being a lackey to billionaires, and suddenly the overlap in appeal between the two non-PAC candidates is obvious.
I think just Kansas had a closed caucus on the GOP side and a more open caucus on the Democratic side. Sanders beat Clinton 23-10. I expect that is almost entirely due to his organization finally getting going, but I wonder if some of his voters would have voted for Trump if they could have.
I suspect that Bernie’s numbers are lower due to voters showing up to vote for Trump; as in one state where the GOP went several days earlier, and voters went to the first one.
Leaper, I completely agree with your analysis and think that Irishman has it all wrong.