They don’t actually, as per your second linked article. Yes, 7% of Bernie Sanders supporters may vote for Trump while 66% will vote for Clinton. I’m sure 5% will vote for Mothman.
No flailing whatsoever. I was responding to BrainGlutton’s blanket statement:“they ain’t gonna vote for Trump/Cruz”. Clearly some percent of them are likely to, based on polling now.
I then gave my reasons for why expect these percentages to rise as Trump courts Sander’s supporters.
Any whole number percentage defection from Sanders to Clinton is significant, considering how many people have voted for him and will vote for him.
Sanders is still doing something for the Democratic party: he’s increasing overall turnout. If he’s still running by the time of the California primary, that’s good, because it means more people will be voting for State Attorney General, etc. It makes the election “more relevant.”
I thank goodness for Sanders. He helps keep Clinton in the headlines!
And back in '08 over 50% of Clinton supporters would shun Obama, and it got up to 60% before she suspended her campaign, before she made her efforts to unite the party. By the time the convention was over major progress was made.
No question there had still been a few hold outs even by election day. And there is no assurance that Sanders will work as hard towards uniting the party as she did … she already was beginning to at this point even as they kept competing and she worked very hard in the lead up to and after the convention (albeit Bill C. was less of the enthusiastic supporter).
But Clinton is starting out in a much better place with Sanders supporters than Obama had been starting out with Clinton supporters. And “The Cure to Hillary Clinton’s Problem With Millennials? Donald Trump”
I wish it would show up on mine. That was a good piece. Granted, I had a lot of confirmation bias going in.
It’s gone through mine and I agree. I started out in favor of Clinton but would have had no issues voting Sanders if he won the primary. Now I want nothing to do with him and think less of people who still support him.
I think that might have actually made me switch from Bernie to Hillary.
Though is there a cite that Clinton is “to the left of Bernie on […] LGBT issues”?
Considering where he was coming from in the polls, yes, it’s ‘respectable.’ Remember, this is a guy who we shouldn’t even be talking about right now.
It’s not about the math right now; it’s about the winning streak. Hillary finally won a race – in her home state.
If she takes even two of five next week, yeah, I agree. It’s over. Sanders has to go on a tear – I acknowledge that. But it could happen. New York was especially well-suited for Hillary.
Not a fan of the 538 statisticians’ research that momentum really isn’t a thing?
asahi, as someone who does not believe that it is currently over, maybe you’d care to post in this thread which asks what results on 4/26 would be required to convince you it was?
I do not think that people like me who felt it was over a long time ago, even if it had to play itself out, are helpful posters there. But you would be.
The difference is, though, that Sanders (like Obama in '08) appeals to the independent voters and those that aren’t strongly entrenched in the Democratic party. Those voters have less reason to just blindly switch over to a candidate they don’t prefer just because of the party. Clinton appeals mainly to those Democratic party regulars, who are more likely to support the party’s candidate regardless of who it is.
Some more data on that one out of ten Sanders supporters say they would vote for Trump over Clinton … Monmouth poll of PA today validates that concern:
Of course it also true that:
And for fun, on the GOP side:
So FWIW it’s across the board.
We can add this to the list of things you’re wrong about.
Because it is good for both sides:
I do have to go way back on this one - 2008. And it involved Hillary Clinton.
Both she and her husband had prime-time speaking roles at the convention after a contentious, closely fought race. Even Chelsea got in the act introducing her mother. And then she actively campaigned for him.
Hillary has already co-opted Sanders’ $15 an hour minimum wage position and she did that before the convention and nomination, while competing against him instead of with his help.
Sanders cannot win this thing but he would be a big help to Clinton in getting young voters out to the polls and he came into this as a huge underdog who probably didn’t think he had a chance to win but did want to bring issues that were important to him to the foreground.
Bernie being able to have a voice at the convention helps both of them achieve what they want and there is no reason why either side wouldn’t accept the assistance of the other in getting it.
Getting prime time speaking roles to give full throated support for the nominee is not quite getting major policy and position demands met. He is wanting ObamaCare revisited and making a doomed attempted move to “Medicare for all” a high priority. He won’t get her to take that on as her position. He wants “free college” for all at all public colleges. He won’t get her to take that on as her position.
Yes, his vigorous support would be great both to help turnout for the top of the ticket and just as important to his stated goals, for a wide variety of races down the ticket. But if it getting that is contingent upon her taking on those positions then his support will have to be done without. Oh well. True it would be all that work just to marginalize himself near the end, but hey, it will be his choice.
When Susan Sarandon implied that she and a bloc of Bernie supporters would “feel Donald Trump will bring the revolution immediately” (something she subsequently walked back), The Atlantic pointed out that “There’s little evidence that many Democrats would join her.”
Or maybe he’ll show the pragmatism that allowed him to both be the most liberal person in Congress yet still vote for a Democratic agenda that was further to the right than he wanted.
And you ignore the fact that Clinton would want his help too. This isn’t a one-way street.
Sanders already got Clinton to capitulate on $15 an hour. Just because he won’t be able to get free healthcare or schools doesn’t mean that is all he is about.
Sounds a little like Bernie’s staff is practicing for a concession speech.
Let the fence-mending commence.