Eh, I’ve said all along that Bernie’s leverage is pretty exaggerated. The Tea Party shows how you get leverage as an intra-party revolution–by seating a sizable number of actual candidates in political offices at both the State and Federal level.
Sanders wasn’t positioned to do that because he got into the race as a protest candidate. It’s been largely forgotten now (not by Obama, though) that Sanders almost primaried Obama in 2012 for the same reasons he got into the 2016 primary. He wants to stake out a bigger place at the table for the progressive left. That’s not a bad goal if that’s your ideology, but his thinking process was “if I can make some noise somehow the progressive left will get more leverage.” The problem is his campaign became primarily about him, and about “not-Hillary.”
The Tea Party has a different origin, some of it grassroots, some of it astroturf, but perhaps (and maybe importantly) because it started in a non-Presidential election year it was focused on winning legislative seats, and running primaries against Republicans who didn’t line up with Tea Party ideals. This had the effect of seating some new tea party legislators at both the State and Federal level, and also causing some Republicans in areas that tended to be deep red to suddenly adopt more Tea Party like views (and even join the caucus), to protect their right flank.
As a lifelong Republican I hate what the Tea Party has done, but it’s frankly hard to deny its efficacy.
A lot of Bernie’s narrative on leverage has never made much sense. He says he wanted to stay in to get as many delegates as possible, so that when he gets to the convention he’ll have more leverage. All the stuff at the convention is majority vote, so it doesn’t matter if he has 1700 or 2000 delegates, it only matters that Hillary has more delegates than he does, if he really wanted to contest the convention he’d lose in straight-line majority votes in every committee and on every issue.
The only leverage he has is to offer his concession and endorsement so he gets out of Hillary’s way, but every day he refuses to concede the value of that offer decreases. I do think Orlando has hurt him as well too, national press has essentially forgotten Bernie existed, and even his statement on the shootings was largely a non-event versus Obama/Trump/Clinton.
While Trump has been the king of Free Media, Bernie has benefited a good bit from all the news articles by reporters desperate to have a horse race in the Dem primary who loved reporting on every slight upset and minor Hillary stumble. Those people largely aren’t interested in Bernie anymore, and that’s going to be responsible for even more erosion of importance.
I think the weakness of Trump also reduces Bernie’s influence. There was a genuine fear by many (myself included) that as well as Trump ran over his GOP opposition he was going to pivot in ways that made him more palatable to the general electorate. He’s slippery enough he easily could. And most of his die hards appear not to care about what he says or does so they’d continue supporting him, and most dye-in-the-wool Republicans hate Hillary so much they were never going to vote for her.
Instead Trump has actually gotten more offensive and less Presidential as the presumptive nominee. His blatant demagoguery on Orlando, an issue I honestly thought he’d do well on, seems to have backfired–in a rare moment where the American people don’t disappoint me, the reaction to Trump trying to inflame nativism and racism in the face of a national tragedy appears to be very negative, even on the right. Recent polling shows Trump weakening against Hillary–and to be frank, she’s just getting started on her broadsides on Trump. I think Trump on the other hand has very little new material on Hillary, you can only call her Crooked Hillary, talk about Vince Foster and email scandals so much, especially when those things have been at peak saturation for ages now.