This doesn’t change the facts that September’s report was so good Republicans (and probably you too) started imagining conspiracy theories to account for them and that the 171,000 job growth was above what economists expected.
We can debate as to how robust job growth this is if you want to play the semantic game (which is often the only game you have) however this is job growth. Some would say it’s modest. Some would say better than modest. You allude that it is less than modest job growth. Please let us know the term you would use. Tepid, maybe? I would disagree as would economists. But again, that’s just semantics.
Do you read what you type? You typed this: “it’s the holidays. You’re going to see an uptick in hiring.”
Unless you think that the Holidays are not seasonal (ha), then your assertion that Holiday hiring makes it a bad bet for you is wrong.
WHICH THE BLS ACCOUNTS FOR!
Idiots who don’t know this scream about temporary hiring clouding late in the year (and July too) jobs reports. They are idiots because they are ignorant that the BLS makes seasonal adjustments in their reports. The fact that you know this because you were shown a citation that explains it and still repeat this shows that maybe you aren’t the best person to be flinging around that “reading isn’t your strong suit” canard.
So your assertion that “it’s the holidays. You’re going to see an uptick in hiring, so that’s not a good bet to make” is laughably wrong since the job report takes that into account.
What a shocker. Conservative poster claims gloom and doom because companies are currently firing people left and right because of Obamacare, but that view cannot be proved by actual data because… the Bureau of Labor Statistics is oversampling Democrats and the polls are all wrong, or something? No, I guess the reason that the facts are wrong today is totally different than the reasons that the facts were wrong one month ago.
I know it’s hard to be pushed into a position of accepting a bet that involves risking zero dollars and zero cents. Just keep explaining to us how the disaster is coming in the medium-to-long term future, and it’s always just a little further off in the distance… but never so near as to actually risk being proven wrong. It’s like those huckster televangelists who tell people that the earth is going to end next year, so send your prayer donations in today, only to find at the last moment that the end of the world has been postponed for just a little while more.
Sure, the economy is going to get even worse and China is going to wind up owning us, lock stock and barrel, just that’s like two or three years from now. We’ve been hearing those claims since January 20, 2009.
OMG, do you even see that the information you’re parroting is just the sort of thing the RW media were selling you about the *skewed *polling?
We’re not all bad guys and monsters. You are being mislead and we’re trying to let you know it. It’s hard to accept it, I’m sure, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t worth doing.
I predict that the economy will have largely recovered although unemployment will remain higher than histroic averages due to increased production and lack of demand, say %6.5. Dow Jones will be in the vicinity of 17,000. The Chinese economy cools as they come to terms with their over expansion of the past decade. Brazil and India are the next rising stars. Europe recovering from the austerity measure, is creeping its way out of recession with very slow but steady growth. Taxes are raised on the wealthy moderate spending cuts are initiated, this combined with the improved economy shrinks the deficit to 400 billion, but doesn’t eliminate it.
The Supreme court gets slightly more liberal. Gay marriage passes in 8 additional states, but Republicans block the repeal of DOMA. As Obamacare is implemented and becomes popular it ceases to be a Republican talking point.
We get the majority of our troops out of Afghanistan retaining a residual force much like we have now in Iraq, but a low level war between the Taliban and other Afghani warlords persists. Guantanamo Bay remains open. The Isrealies and Palistinians will still be fighting each other with occasional cease fires that are broken by one side or the other much as they have for the last 5 years. Iran gets a nuclear weapon but despite much hand wringing not much changes. An Al Qaeda group launches a couple of medium scale attacks around the world, but no attacks on American soil.
And since I’m an optimist, the Redskins make it to the playoffs in 2016, and the Nationals win the world series in 2015.
By 2016 we’ll be well into The Singularity! (Which, of course, by definition, makes any further predictions essentially imponderable.)
“As I see it, the main problem in designing a plausible 23rd century these days isn’t lack of grandeur, it’s the imminence of changes so fundamental and unpredictable they’re likely to make the dramas of 2298 as unintelligible to us as the Microsoft Anti-Trust Suit would be to Joan of Arc.”
Now now, I’m glad we’re all on the same page about Obama being the Messiah, but, really, I think our calendar system is just fine the way it is. I, for one, am going to stick with AD/BC rather than AO/BO (After/Before Obamacare).
This is all just the same old myth of the invisible hand, a fairly tale spun out of faulty assumptions of efficiency. If it were going to happen by 2016, it would have already happened long ago, because ultimately, the ACA is only a minor change in the status quo.
In the real world, the employee pool is not fully informed, barriers to employment change are quite substantial, and quality of labor is rarely reflected in the short-term bottom line or even accurately quantified in the first place. Business will continue not giving a crap about its low tier employees and the employees will continue to be stuck with it, and poor business decisions made out of ideology re: Obamacare will have the same result as most other poor business decisions: the damage will be felt by the grunts instead of by management.
A minor change? I guess that explains why so many on the right have been losing their collective minds since it came into being and hasn’t stopped yet… Don’t get me wrong: I think they’re wrong about this. But if enough of them are wrong about how much of a change it is and react accordingly, the result is the same as if they were all correct, isn’t it?
Perception is a huge part of the economy and people react emotionally in ways that seem to defy reason. And they do it over and over again. They do not necessarily follow logic or that which is objectively in their own interest.
So if* a large enough part of the business owner community choose to make decisions that an objective rational observer would not make then the economy is nudged in accordance with those decisions. It is one thing to say a handful of restaurant owners (collectively Really Extra Pure United Beef Sellers, Inc) threatening to cut employee’s hours is irrelevant… but if enough of them do it (how many is enough I could not hazard a guess!?) then it becomes a real factor to deal with for their competitors.
Now the competitor (Outer Beltway Affiliated Meat Artisans, Corp) sees that REPUBS, Inc can sell at a lower price by shafting their workers and forcing the government to pay a part of (or all of) their insurance in the exchanges. What is OBAMA Corp going to do?
OBAMA Corp could do a PR campaign to explain why their costs and thus prices are higher. They could look to cut costs in non-labor areas. They could grin and bear it and soak up the costs by taking a direct hit to the bottom line. Or they might follow suit and shaft their workers.
IMHO, what OBAMA Corp probably will not do is sit idly by and watch their market share erode, stores close, and workers be laid off for lack of business.
What I find hilarious about the layoff threats and price increase threats is that when my company was doing layoffs and price increases, we wanted our customers to be as unaware as possible. We had to announce price hikes, but we definitely didn’t trumpet them. Most businesses don’t advertise new high, high prices! A huge Black Friday unsale! Crazy Eddie’s gone insane, he’s slashing low prices in two so you pay twice as much!
Who says, “Oh, I’m going to run right out and buy that pizza now that they’re telling me it costs more than it did”?
And these people want to be taken seriously as business people and “job creators”?
(Which, of course, by definition, makes any further predictions essentially imponderable.)