2021 NFL QB Carousel Thread aka the NFL Offseason Thread

The Game Room
21

I want to believe this is true, but the rumors regarding a messy breakup between Pace/Nagy and Trubisky seem to suggest that my preference for keeping him is unlikely. Rumors are just that, so it might be horseshit, but if true you have to think the Bears would be searching high and low for a veteran to at the very least be a placeholder. No chance we start the season with Foles and a rookie TBD.

I have no doubt the Eagles were spreading rumors to try and bait the Colts, but I’m sure the Bears were asking. But if they stood firm saying they would not part with a 1st rounder I’ll be impressed, but that doesn’t sound like Pace at all.

22

The Urban Meyer Era in Jacksonville is off to a great start, as they had to “unhire” their director of sports performance, Chris Doyle, for being a racist asshole. And, since it is Urban Meyer, it’s not like his racism or assholishness was unknown, since Doyle was fired from University of Iowa last year for his actions.

Great start, Urban! At least you’re consistent.

23

I predict Meyer lasts no more than two seasons in Jacksonville. Top-level college coaches like him wind up not enjoying NFL coaching in the slightest, and not doing particularly well, either (see: Spurrier, Saban, Petrino, etc.)

24

… Pete Carroll…

25

Fair point, though I think that Pete is the (very successful) exception to the rule. The other exception who comes to mind is Jim Harbaugh, who did well in four seasons with the 49ers, though he jumped back to the college ranks, apparently due in part to a power struggle with the Niners’ GM.

26

The worst part was that Meyer originally defended the hiring because “he knew him well, they went way back”. That’s basically the definition of the old boys club and the white privilege that comes along with it. Meyer didn’t even consider interviewing new people, he just called the guys he worked with before and even if they’d been fired he didn’t ask any questions.

27

This just in: Johnny Manziel has no interest in returning to football!
https://www.cbc.ca/sports/football/nfl/johnny-manziel-football-future-1.5913727

Now, if the Mets would finally end the Tebow story.

28

I think it’s 50/50. It’s hard to tell because Houston’s been hot garbage on personnel evaluation and development for a few seasons. Maybe Watt still has 2-3 good (as in top 10 defensive end) years left and has been held back by a terrible front office and lackluster coaching leading to a poor to terrible defensive unit. Or maybe he’s really not got anything left.

Probably a bit of both, but I would have loved to have seen what he could have been these last few years with a competent GM and/or coach.

Unfortunately, that has been some unholy combination of Bill O’Brien and Jack Easterby. BoB is at least a good offensive coach but neglected the defense and was absolutely the worst GM in the league. And Tommy Boy is bad enough to make me think Jimmy Haslam maybe isn’t such a bad owner (and that’s saying a hell of a lot). The Browns are finding themselves the beneficiary of decisions made 2-3 GMs/coaches ago, and continued success will depend on the Haslams figuring out near annual changes aren’t a good thing.

At this point, I’m with Deshaun Watson. I said, from about 3 years ago, the greatest sin the Texans were going to commit was wasting Watson’s prime. And nothing in the intervening years has led me to believe otherwise. If anything, they amply demonstrated it. Then again, this wasn’t exactly a difficult prediction. I’d love the team to be better, but I have absolutely no faith the current ownership or front office will achieve that by anything other than transcendental luck.

29

Problem with that is that Romeo Crennel, who is actually a good DC, was running that side of the ball. I don’t think you can blame BOB for Watt’s decline.

30

From a personnel standpoint, it’s an argument with legs.

According to PFR, Houston was 27th in overall team defense this season.

In 2017, they were dead last in the league - the year Watt only played 5 games
In 2018, they were 4th overall - Watt played all 16 regular season games, and they had Tyrann Matthieu and Clowney
In 2019, they were 19th - Watt only played 8 games, and before the season, Matthieu left as a free agent and Clowney was traded to Seattle

They had Crennel as a coach all those years and had wildly varying results. The better years also happened to feature players the Texans subsequently lost in free agency or traded away (funny how they do that).

Maybe Watt at his peak could have bumped the numbers in 2020 a bit but not by much by himself. They had a terrible defense this season. Watt has declined but not enough to explain the rest of the defense, from the pitiful secondary to a mediocre run defense. Whether that’s due to coaching, personnel, or just bad mojo, that’s still on BoB and the front office.

Watson had arguably his best individual season but few wins to show for it. He’s suffering the same thing on the offensive side - he doesn’t have much of a group around him and he doesn’t have a Belichick to make up for personnel deficiencies.

31

Vincent Jackson dead at 38. Vincent Jackson, former Chargers and Buccaneers wide receiver, found dead at 38 - CBSSports.com

Yeah, I’m jumping to conclusions, whatever the cause, it isn’t good.

32

Disappointing to say the least – I had thought that Meyer might be one of the few college coaches that could make the transition to the pros work, but he’s off to a terrible start. The one thing I’ve heard his former (now-NFL) players say about Meyer is that he communicates well and that his players didn’t just fear him; they respected him as a person and coach. But not only hiring that guy but doubling down on the hire sends a terrible message that he’s tone deaf in a league where 70% of the players are black and are becoming increasingly aware of and vocal about diversity issues in the coaching and executive ranks.

33

I hope you’re wrong. Jackson was a Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year Award nominee four years in a row and founded a non-profit to help military families. Heck, he even won the Salute to Service award from the NFL.

34

My friend and I made up these odds for who the Bears’ 2021 starting QB would be. Updated to address all the latest rumors:

  • Carson Wentz, 3-2
  • Nick Foles, 3-1
  • Mitch Trubisky, 4-1
  • Mac Jones, 5-1
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick, 6-1
  • Trey Lance, 10-1
  • Sam Darnold, 12-1
  • Gardner Minshew, 12-1
  • Derek Carr, 15-1
  • Jimmy Garoppolo, 15-1
  • Andy Dalton, 15-1
  • Nick Mullens, 20-1
  • Matt Ryan, 20-1
  • Dak Prescott, 20-1
  • Cam Newton, 20-1
  • Kyle Trask, 20-1
  • Teddy Bridgewater, 25-1
  • Ben Roethlisberger, 30-1
  • Tua Tagovailoa, 40-1
  • Deshaun Watson, 50-1
  • Zach Wilson, 100-1
  • Justin Fields, 100-1
  • Trevor Lawrence, 500-1

Who’d we forget?

35

Every time I see a headline like this Vincent Jackson one, I immediately think CTE and suicide. Jumping to conclusions, obviously, but I can’t really help it.

36

So, supposedly Jackson suffered from alcoholism and the family claims CTE. I’m sure there will be a lot more to the story. Ex-Buc Vincent Jackson suffered from chronic alcoholism, sheriff says

37

I’m not sure who you forgot but going over the list I think all these options sound unlikely. Since the Wentz rumor turned out to be a smokescreen, I’m guessing that’s probably much lower odds than listed here. The Colts didn’t bite either, so maybe the Eagles decide to drop the price to a point where the Bears are actually willing but I’m getting a hint that ownership might be unwilling to tie up a lot of cap beyond this year.

Trubisky was my bet before the latest rumors about the complete breakdown of that relationship with Nagy and Pace, so all the “insiders” now are saying there’s close to a zero chance Mitch is back.

Foles is the path of least resistance, but fans will mutiny if that’s what ends up being sold as the plan for 2021. Coming off COVID and expecting fans back next year, the team will have to be conscientious about perception. It already feels like a lame duck year and running it back with Foles would confirm it.

A rookie is probably the smart answer but with Pace and Nagy on scorching hot seats I kind of doubt they will gamble that much. Drafting 20th and maybe not having the capital or gumption to move into the top 3, the odds of them getting a prospect who projects as an opening day starter are long. I’m not convinced Jones or Lance will even be there at 20.

Fitzmagic kind of makes sense, but he seems like a terrible fit for Nagy’s system such as it is. Maybe I’m reading it wrong and what we’ve seen so far is more of a Mitch tailored program and Nagy would like a gun slinger such as Fitz. At least he’s in budget and available…and not Cam Newton. Minshew is probably just a younger Fitz so if he becomes available that’s an interesting idea too.

Darnold is a less appealing reclamation project than Wentz…but I admit I really liked him as a rookie. I’d probably come around to the idea if he’s available for cheap (like, almost free). Maybe Gase was the problem. Yet, I’m guessing the Jets will keep him instead of releasing him and I’m not shipping over any draft capital for him (but I bet someone will).

I don’t think any of those veterans are likely unless they get cut. If we wouldn’t trade picks for Wentz, I don’t think we’d trade them for Ryan, Garoppolo or Carr.

Crazy as it sounds, and as much as the idea turns my stomach, breaking the bank and trading a bunch of picks for Watson seems like the play if you’re looking to be aggressive and not just roll the dice on a rookie. Maybe you can trade up to draft Wilson cheaper than getting Watson, which scares me less, but I don’t know that the Jets are likely to be sellers.

What a mess. Tankapolooza?

38

I still think it’s most likely to be Wentz, despite all the smoke. Once Pace sets his mind on something he’ll almost always overpay to make it happen.

I don’t think they can trade into the top 5, but if Lance or Jones are still available in the low teens they might be able to trade up to there.

I’m not sure the Bears could even put together a package that would be better than Miami, the Jets or any number of other teams’. If Houston decides to trade Watson they will have plenty of suitors.

I’d do it, but Pace and Nagy have one year to save their jobs, so it’s not an option for them. Unfortunately, none of the other options are very appealing, either.

39

I don’t necessarily disagree, but I don’t think any of these outcomes can have better than 3-1 odds. There’s way too many scenarios and roadblocks in the way. LOTS of QB movement is going to happen and the Bears probably shouldn’t be out front setting prices and starting the carousel unless its for the top guy. Wentz and everyone else’s price will go way down after the draft.

40

The Oregonian newspaper is saying Marcus Mariota is being shopped around. The Patriots were mentioned but why not the Bears.