2021 NFL QB Carousel Thread aka the NFL Offseason Thread

This is a wild stat/factoid:

Only four teams have managed to win a game since the 2000 season in which their quarterback threw no touchdowns and four interceptions. Chicago has done it twice.

The Bears waived two guys they drafted in the 6th round this season. Both made it to the practice squad without being claimed by anyone else.

Which means 31 other teams viewed two of Pace’s 6th round picks as guys they wouldn’t take for free. :man_facepalming:

I don’t think that’s that noteworthy. 6 other sixth-rounders were cut. Remember that players picked up on waivers need to be added directly to the roster, not the practice squad, so it’s not “free” if you then need to cut another player. Also, Thomas Graham was literally the last player picked in round 6.

Wellll, not quite “for free”. They still have to pay them (although a practice squad player makes peanuts by NFL standards), and there’s an opportunity costs, since there’s a limit on how many players a team can have on their practice squad. But, yeah, given the typical composition of a practice squad that means 31 other NFL teams took a look at two players Pace drafted, and decided there were a dozen or so undrafted free agents who had more upside.

[shakes fist angrily]

Honestly, feels longer.

Let me introduce our Lord and Savior, Jordan Love.

It’s not… 6th and 7th rounders are generally toss-ups as to whether they will make a team. That’s why draft picks that late aren’t very valuable. They’re only slightly more likely to make a team than undrafted folks that try out.

If they were 3rd or 4th rounders, or even 5th rounders, that would be a bit different.

As a Buccaneers fan, John Gruden’s absolute Achilles’ heel as a coach is having John Gruden as his GM. The Gruden Buccaneers were fantastic when the roster was the one built by Rich McKay and Tony Dungy. After Gruden got McKay fired, and the Bucs hired Bruce Allen to be his patsy, things went to shit almost immediately. His overall record post-Super Bowl was about 500, but it was only because the NFL South was fucking awful during that period. I knew the Gruden-Raiders reunion was going to suck the moment I heard Mike Mayock was hired as GM - the guy with zero NFL management experience was definitely going to be a Gruden patsy.

My beef is, when you like to trade picks to move up and get the players you covet – as Pace so famously does – your remaining picks are that much more valuable. Even 6s and 7s. The Bears just aren’t talented or deep enough to be drafting players who aren’t even good enough to make the team.

Most players that are good enough to make the team are drafted long before the last few rounds. The last day of the draft is essentially guessing even for genius GMs (sic) like Pace.

Sometimes? It’s up there with the Trubisky vs. Watson vs. Mahomes graphics for most overused graphic by broadcasters.

In other NFL news, this is interesting: a few teams have been experimenting with soft-shell helmet covers. It’s goofy looking; they look a lot like they’re wearing Nerf turtle shells on their heads, but apparently the data gathered so far has been encouraging. No word on if or when they’d be authorized for use in-game.

Sure, they may help, but if you jump on top of someone, they start spinning and slamming back and forth between the sidelines, flattening anyone in their path.

Mark Kelso has entered the chat.

I think the sport would be a lot safer if they disallowed tossing fireballs.

Bill Belichick is being an ass about vaccines. When Cam Newton was released, the press asked him if Newton being unvaccinated was a factor. He replied:

No … I would just point out, I don’t know what the number is — you guys can look it up, you have access to a lot of information — but the number of players and coaches and staff members that have been infected by COVID in this training camp who have been vaccinated, it’s a pretty high number. I wouldn’t lose sight of that.

This prompted Dr. Allen Sims, the NFL’s Chief Medical Officer to respond:

We know that vaccines are working. What we are seeing are some vaccinated people who test positive. But their illness tends to be very short and very mild, and that’s exactly what the vaccines were designed to do … Let’s all remember the vaccines were designed to prevent serious illness, hospitalization, and death. They’re doing a terrific job of that so far, not only in the NFL, where we haven’t seen any serious cases, but in society as a whole.

Belichick later “clarified” his initial remarks, saying:

My comment relative to the vaccinations or, really, the way I feel is that that’s an individual decision for each person to make. As a team, we’re better off if everybody is vaccinated.

OK, that’s a little better. But apparently he couldn’t resist adding:

That being said, even if everybody was vaccinated, it doesn’t solve all of our problems, as we’ve seen multiple players, head coaches, and assistant coaches throughout the league test positive for COVID even after they have been vaccinated.

These last comments are apparently in context of “we still need to remain vigilant even if we’re vaccinated,” but they sure do come across as - again - downplaying the effectiveness of the vaccine. You may be one of the greatest coaches of all time, Bill, but you’re an idiot when it comes to COVID vaccinations, I’m afraid.

I see it more as Belichick tripping all over his words and wishing he could avoid the topic altogether. He probably did cut Cam over not being vaccinated but wants to cover his ass. It’s the same as his notoriously vague injury reports.

I’m definitely not a Patriots fan.

Wait, what? What are the numbers on that? I’d believe that 6th and 7th rounders are nearly a coin-flip, but I know for the Seahawks at least, they’re bringing in 10 or so UDFAs into camp every year and somewhere between zero and one makes the roster.

They have about a 1-in-3 chance of making a roster.

Players taken in the sixth and seventh-rounds have the toughest time to earn a roster spot. Their odds can fall as low as having a 30-35% chance of making a team.

I don’t have numbers on what percentage of UDFAs that try out for a team end up drafted. I couldn’t find that. But about a third of all players in the NFL were undrafted. So I don’t know if that comes about solely as a result of volume (throw enough spaghetti against the wall and some will stick) or because someone who is a UDFA who gets brought in to try out has something that a specific team is already looking for, rather than a pick made under duress during the draft (where you have a limited time to choose when it’s your turn and you don’t know with certainty who will be available during your turn). I really don’t know. I do know that at least in 2019, there were almost as many UDFAs on teams as there were players drafted between rounds 4 and 7 combined.

So yeah, I don’t have solid numbers to state with certainty what the odds are of 6th-7th rounders making a team compared to UDFAs invited to try out, but my speculation based on what rosters look like is that there probably isn’t a massive amount of difference.