Let’s speculate on the 2022 midterms. With 1 month to go for this year’s Election Day I thought it might be an interesting topic. Here are the two scenarios to consider.
Biden wins and the Democrats take the senate narrowly, let’s say 51-49. What can Biden and the congressional Democrats do to prevent 2022 being a repeat of 1994 and 2010?
Biden wins and the Democrats don’t take the senate. They close the gap, but when all the votes are counted, the result is 49-51. Democrats won in AZ, CO, MI, and ME, but lost MT, IA, NC and all the other races that may be even slightly competitive. Poor Doug Jones down in AL lost as well. In this scenario, the question is not just can Democrats avoid losing the house in 2022, but could they take the Senate at that time?
Things to keep in mind. For the Senate, Democrats have a good 2022 map. Republicans will be defending 22 seats and the Democrats only 10. Republicans will be up in purple states like PA, WI, OH, NC, and FL. The most competitive states a Democrat will be up in are NV and NH. In a vacuum I like that map, but remember how 1994 and 2010 went.
Then there is the House. Redistricting makes that harder to predict, but there should be a few positives. Virginia is likely to be de-gerrymandered by their Democratically controlled state government. Democratic governors in places like PA and NC should at the least keep the gerrymandering from getting worse. The big red states are also already heavily gerrymandered, with little room to make things worse. But again, remember 1994 and 2010.
Overall, then, the questions is this. What do Democrats need to do to keep control of Congress / gain control of the Senate in the 2022 midterms?
I have a hypothesis as to why 1994 and 2010 happened the way they did, but to avoid focusing the discussion on just that one are, I will hold off on posting it for now.
Also, let’s not consider the scenarios where Trump wins. We’re almost certainly screwed as a country if that happens. There is little point in debating the 2022 midterms for a country that would likely no longer be a real democracy by that time.