Here is what I see if the Dems don’t get at least 50 senators.
No cabinet officer will be approved.
No court nomination will be approved.
There will be no budget and the government will close for at least a week till a compromise is reached.
There will be no legislation passed doing anything useful, like a new version of the ACA to answer the court’s objections.
Trump’s tax cut won’t be repealed.
In 2024, the Republicans will campaign that see, Biden couldn’t get anything done, the economy is in chaos, Covid is still running rampant and they will nominate and elect Donald Trump.
Thoughts?
It looks like the Dems might get to 50 this year, so hopefully this scenario doesn’t occur. But other obstacles could be laid down by the Republicans.
I think there are quite a few states where Senate and Congress seats for Republicans are at risk going forward if they continue to the party of obstruction. So I expect there to be some defectors.
Too much obstruction could push Georgia, Texas & Iowa bluish and Ohio back to blue. As it is Arizona will probably have 2 Dems in the Senate this year. Colorado is another that if not this time, by next time.
Georgia has 2 Republicans both are at risk going forward. Same for Iowa.
In 2022 these are some Republicans seats at risk:
- John Boozman of Arizona
- Mark Rubio of Florida (probably safe)
- Chuck Grassley of Iowa
- Richard Burr of N. Carolina
- Rob Portman of Ohio
- Patrick Toomey of Penn
- Tim Scott of S. Carolina
- Ron Johnson of Wisconsin