A Trump win/Democratic Senate would have been better in the short term

Politics & Elections
1

It looks like Biden may squeak out a win, and the Republicans will hold onto the Senate.

My opinion is that, while Trump is awful for America’s reputation and is thoroughly corrupt, that corruption has a small effect on individuals. It’s awful that he overcharges taxpayers for his stays at his own places, plays golf all the time, etc., but it won’t move the needle in terms of the economy.

The main issues affecting the US right now, IMO, are: Climate, healthcare, unemployment, COVID-19

Nothing will get done on carbon emissions or healthcare, either with a Republican president/Democratic legislature or the reverse.

However, on the economy, the Democrats are more willing to support the unemployed and provide another bailout for those affected by COVID, even if it benefits a Republican president. Republicans have shown that they don’t care about deficits when one of theirs is the president, there have been no shutdown threats, and there have been trillions in aid given out.

However, with a Republican Senate and a Democratic president, all that comes to an end. Suddenly, deficits will matter again, and we’ll have a replay of the shutdowns and cuts to spending in order to prevent a default. Any coronavirus bailout will be dead on arrival, whereas with a Dem Senate and a Rep President, I think the bailout would happen – Trump loves getting his name on those checks that get mailed out.

So, in the short term, for the millions of people struggling economically, a Trump win and a Democratic takeover of the Senate would have been better. The number of people affected by the economic downturn far exceeds the people turned away at the border, the people affected by Nazis marching in the street, even the kids kept in cages. Even from a humanitarian standpoint, while the border camps are truly despicable (and completely avoidable), in terms of total human misery, another COVID bailout would likely have a more positive overall effect.

I’m happy to be convinced otherwise.

2

Biden without a blue Senate is preferable than Trump with one. I think.

If Trump wins, and we don’t have the Senate, then say goodbye to any thought of a nonpartisan judicial wing. If the Republicans actually hold up Biden’s nominations for 2 years in the Senate, and fight against all legislation that would benefit the people, then there is a chance (before yesterday I’d say a good chance, but given what we’ve learned of the American voter over the past 24 hours…) that people will actually notice the obstructionism and vote out those who are standing in the way of getting the things done that need to be done.

There are some Senators who will be defending moderately red seats come 2022. They may be willing to play ball, rather than be voted out for someone who will. At the same time, they do need to worry about being primaried by someone who promises to refuse bipartisanship in all ways.

Even holding the entire legislature doesn’t mean they have any power. They will not be veto proof, and Trump would veto anything that came from a Democratic congress unless he was assured of a cut.

3

My two options where Biden/Republican Senate (which seems to be where we’re headed) or Trump/Democratic Senate (which I think would be better in the short term).

Trump wouldn’t have a problem with sending out another round of checks, as long as his name is on the check. That would alleviate a ton of misery. He wouldn’t face government shutdowns caused by the House and Senate. So, the American public, by and large, would benefit from stability in government services, and COVID relief bills.

Biden won’t get any more COVID relief. He’ll face non-stop investigations, government shutdowns unless he agrees to large cuts, and may not get any judges approved. None of that is good for the American public.

4

If there’s one thing that Republicans learned from the Obama Administration, it is that they will pay no price for being obstructionist. None. At. All. Much more likely that Biden will get the blame for failing to “do what he promised” and Republicans will sweep in the 2022 midterms.

There is no advantage to being a moderate in today’s GOP. None. As you note they will get eaten alive in their primary. How do you think Lisa Murkowski will fare in an Alaska primary if she and Collins are the sole GOP votes to confirm Biden judges?

5

A 2020 Biden victory may pay dividends for a blue Senate in 2022. Without the shield of the presidency, Trump’s corruption will have real legal consequences that will hopefully come to a climax in about two years. How are 2022 GOP Senate candidates going to reply when asked for their take on the fat, old guy in an orange jumpsuit?

6

Trump who? I never supported him.

Did you see Lindsey Graham’s total flip flop on Trump? He got away with that, and he would get away with changing back again.

7

It would be an uphill climb. No midterm election in a president’s first term has gone his way in decades, with the exception of 2002, and that was largely due to 9/11 sympathy.

Biden may see a 1994 or 2010 type of outcome.

8

They’re going to decry it as a political prosecution by a corrupt administration hijacked by socialist radicals. They will storm to victory in their primaries. In the general election no one will give a shit, but they will care about the shambles the economy will be in after Mitch McConnell spends two years blocking Biden’s every attempt to improve things. The public will blame Biden for this failure and vote for Republicans to bring “change.”

9

Didn’t the Republicans expand their Senate majority in 2018?

10

Fair point, I stand corrected. But they did lose badly in the House, and the Senate was only because of an unusually lopsided GOP-favoring map that year.

11

I don’t know that history is much of a guide here, as we’re kind of in uncharted territory in many ways. Consider (cite) that this year:

  1. Biden may be the first President who took longer than 14 years in elected office to run for President
  2. Biden may be the oldest President ever elected to a first term
  3. Trump may be the first President voted out during a robust (teetering, but robust) economy
  4. Biden may be the first President ever to win without PA nor FL (going off memory, I may be wrong on this).
  5. Trump will be the third president in a century to serve only one term.
  6. Goes without saying, but the pandemic is an historic and enormous factor 100-year factor here.

I think things may turn Biden’s way if he really does roll up his sleeves and try to govern without getting too roped up into identity politics (which - black lives definitely matter and all, but face it, it’s a wedge). I think if the Senate obstructs him while he’s working on COVID, a critically important national issue, it may reflect poorly upon the Senate, and they may pay for it in 2022.

Or maybe not. Again, I’m only pointing that we may be at a point where historical comparisons no longer apply as they did in the past 40 years. Things have definitely changed.

12

John Quincy Adams?

13

Technically correct, which of course is the best kind, but FL wasn’t a state in 1824. Most states weren’t.

14

Jimmy Carter (1977-1981)
George H.W. Bush (1989-1993)

So Trump would be the third one-term president in the last 40 years.

Prior to Carter, the last one-term president was Herbert Hoover (1929-1933)