2022 US Senate Race

Politics & Elections
#222

Folks, just in case you needed reminding what’s at stake next year: Mitch McConnel reiterated that if Republicans take back the Senate next year, they will not advance a Biden Supreme Court nominee to fill a vacancy that occurs in 2024. He was even non-committal when asked about a vacancy that might occur in mid-2013, fully 18 months before the election.

I haven’t a doubt in my mind that if Republicans take back the Senate, they will not advance ANY Biden Supreme Court nominee regardless of when the vacancy occurs. They will drag out the process as long as necessary, without ever admitting that’s what they’re doing.

#223

More on Mitch and 45:

#224

That’s going to be a big campaign topic up and down the country. However we could get a SCOTUS nominee appointed by Biden before 2022 and there’s nothing McConnell can do about it. I hope Breyer calls time by the end of this year. He’s had a good long run.

#225

More optimistic than me, but we shall see:

#226

Bad news for Chuck G. in Iowa:

#227

I’m on record as thinking that Democrats will experience losses in the midterm, but nothing on the order of a 2010 or 1994. One thing the article doesn’t mention is the role of redistricting, with Republicans being in sole control of the process in states representing many more Congressional seats than Democrats. That alone could give them the seats they need to take back the House, given how slim their majority is.

Of course that doesn’t impact the Senate, where the historical correlation of the President’s party losing seats in the midterm is weaker anyway. I am somewhat optimistic about Ds keeping or expanding their Senate majority.

#228

This could bode well for the Democrats.

The Trump wing of the Republican Party has been really successful at MAGAfying the Republican Party organizations at the state and local level, filling them with lying cheating grifters determined to get the Trumpiest candidates possible on the ballot for the House races.

They’ll lie and cheat in order to do so. They aren’t going to play fair, they are going to come down hard on mainstream Republicans in primary challenges.

This strategy is sure to put a lot of crazies in office in deep red districts, that’s inevitable.

But I’m hoping they overplay their hand in some of the more moderate districts and cheat their asses off to get crazies to the right of MTG on the ballot for they general, then campaign solely on the promise of restoring Trump to the office that is rightfully his.

This would have the effect of alienating the 15-20% of the Republicans that aren’t completely insane as well as energizing the Democrats……nothing drives Democrats to the polls like Trump’s insane dictator schtick. Think about how improbable the Democratic victory in the Georgia run-off would’ve been in normal times.

I believe that if Trump had petulantly acknowledged his loss, maybe outraging everyone by refusing to formally concede but not challenging the results- the Republicans would’ve won the Georgia run-off elections handily.

The voter suppression legislation is concerning, especially the redistricting shenanigans - but much of that has been going on for years — at least it’s front and center in the news and people know and care that it’s happening.

And sometimes people gain a new appreciation for something if you try to take it away from them.

That’s my very cautiously optimistic take.

I believe that if Trump never oozed down that escalator at Trump Tower, we’d have President Cruz, or, at best, President Bush or Rubio. But probably Cruz, the trend towards right-wing authoritarianism is worldwide and I’m not giving Trump credit for it.

And Trump had nothing to do with the packing of the judiciary and the suppression of voting rights, except to bray about it openly and take credit for it - he got the Democrats and the media all outraged about it.

Now it’s not happening quietly anymore and at least people are paying attention to it.

The worst thing that could happen to the Democrats, I think, would be for the Republicans to regain sanity, dump Trump, and begin grudgingly signing on to some bipartisan legislation while quietly and unobtrusively working to slowly erode voting rights and replace the judiciary. Then we’d have a normal midterm election with large Republican gains.

But that’s not going to happen. I’m not complacent - I’ve learned that lesson- but a year and a half ago it seemed really unlikely that the Democrats would be in as good of a place as they are now - we’ve scored some major victories in the past year.

Yes, we’ve always got to think ahead to the next fight, always…this isn’t a fight you win, it’s a fight you fight. But the Republicans are playing this head game to try to deprive us of our psychological victory lap, and I’m not letting them win it.

We Won! We have the House, the Senate and the Presidency! It was close but it still counts. Now, back to work……fearlessly.

It’s hard work, the tide of right wing authoritarianism is rising worldwide and it may not be stoppable. I know a lot of you will disagree, but I believe that Trump is making that fight easier than it would’ve been without him, not harder.

#229

Georgia; Herschel Walker’s possible candidacy:

TL; DR: it’s kind of fucking with things.

#230

Well, I’m never gonna read his book now…

#231

That seems like typical Republican thinking. How do we beat a Black candidate? By running our own Black candidate :roll_eyes:. I doubt it would work, in part because the hardcore racist white Republicans would probably stay home if it’s a race between two Black candidates.

#232

Also, Walker appears totally bonkers from what I’ve read. IIRC he held a gun to his ex wife’s head.

#233

…and you think that would dissuade today’s Georgia GOP voters?

:face_with_raised_eyebrow:

#234

Herschel will also have to reestablish residency in Georgia; he’s been living in Texas for quite some time.

#235

'member when Barack Obama first ran for Senate in 2004, and the Republicans drafted Alan Keyes to run against him despite the later being a lifelong resident of Maryland (and having already lost two Senate races there)?

Pepperidge Farm remembers.

#236

The latest on the Senate front:

#237

Ohio fills me with such despair. And I’m worried that the demographics there are going to spread northward into the Rust Belt, turning those states red before the younger, growing southern states will turn blue.

I think Fetterman wins in PA. I hope Kelly can fend off the nutjobs in AZ.

#238

Republicans are attacking Warnock for supporting the For the People Act, describing it as “welfare for politicians.” It’s not an accident that they use that terminology to attack a Black politician.

#239

As I’ve said before, for Trump to improve both his winning percentage and his actual vote tally here from 2016 to 2020 - despite repeated lies, the economic slump, needless COVID deaths, a mass shooting in Dayton, etc. - leaves me very disappointed in my fellow Ohioans.

If any state should be suspected of voter fraud, it’s Ohio. I’m not surprised Trump won the state, but to improve on his 2016 performance is unreal.

That said, the political climate in general in Ohio has become rather depressing. It’s crazy to think the Senate seat is basically a GOP lock.

#240

Roll Call has an article up about the most recent Senate candidate fundraising reports. Largely good news for Democrats, with the four potentially vulnerable incumbents (Kelly, Warnock, Cortez Masto and Hassan) substantially outraising the declared Republican candidates in those races. Val Demings had an impressive haul in Florida, actually outraising Rubio for the quarter (although he has substantially more cash-on-hand). Obviously its early yet but good to see Democratic candidates doing what they need to be doing.

#241

Yes, indeed!