Cortez Masto went from 63 mid September to 50 now in Nevada.
Fetterman went from 83 mid September to 71 now in Pennsylvania.
Barnes went from 49 mid September to 30 now in Pennsylvania.
A quick glance around doesn’t show anyone else with a big drop, but I could have missed something.
Wisconsin (i know you meant this).
Yes. Thank you.
NC Gov Dem Cooper could have won this year
He knows his Lt. is whack job GOP guy so Cooper did not run and let him take over . Cooper may run in 2026 after his 2nd term is up and cannot run again for gov.
Helpful piece on whether it made sense for Democratic-favoring funds (donor money) to support far-right, election-denying Republican primary candidates. It seems this is likely to have helped the Democratic candidate (in the upcoming general election) in only one important case: the New Hampshire US Senate seat.
If you have moral objections to your donations going to such strategies — or practical objections, that it contributes to the overall erosion of truth and trust in democracy — then you should hope the Democratic and allied money distributors have reached the same conclusion — that it’s rarely worth it.
The news from Ohio:
And… Utah?!?:
Evan McMullin has said that, if elected, he would not caucus with either party in the Senate. There are already two Independents in the Senate – Sanders and King – but both caucus with the Democrats. It could lead to some fascinating maneuvering if McMullin were to win, and the Senate was otherwise 50R-49D after the election.
Indeed it could.
And see:
While in Florida:
Colorado is a top ten state in craft breweries per capita, and has strong ties to craft brewing going back to when Boulder resident, Charlie Papazian, founded what is today called the Brewers Association, an organization he served as president of from 1979 to 2016, and wrote The Complete Joy of Home Brewing in 1984. Many craft breweries today trace their roots back to this man, maybe most notably New Belgium.
This is how Joe O’Dea drinks his beer…
https://twitter.com/iansilverii/status/1582015266069676032
Mich Ultra over ice. Joe O’Dea is wrong for Colorado.
Michelob. Ultra. Over. Ice. It literally starts out almost OK and gets worse every word.
In typical GOP fashion these days, like they are doing with Walker in Georgia, Republican senators are trying to get us to buy that obviously disqualifying behavior is like totally normal or whatever.
Here’s Joni Ernst (R-IA) pretending that she likes ice in her beer.
Burn the heretic!
Meanwhile, in Iowa:
Just got a fundraising letter from the Dem in that race, a retired Navy admiral.
Grassley is one of the multitude of dinosaurs in Congress, who, regardless of their politics, need to leave the office. He’s 89, been a Senator since 1981, and was Representative for six years before that. Since he won’t retire, it’s up to voters to show him the door.
On the one hand, the man knows what he likes and should be allowed to drink the beer he wants the way he wants.
On the other hand, Michelob is already love-in-a-canoe before you add ice to dilute it further, and it is right to publicly mock the man for his choices here.
FiveThirtyEight down to Dems keeping Senate in 59 of every 100 model iterations.
Barnes beats Johnson now (WI) in just 25 of 100 iterations. I have to say that Johnson’s negative ads against Barnes are effective. I’ve been bombarded with a ton of them for a couple months now (on TV and YouTube). Not many from Barnes, and they’re mainly defensive, not attacking Johnson for his awfulness (including his aborted attempt to disenfranchise the entire state).
58-42 as of an hour ago. It’s like a fucking countdown to Armageddon.
PredictIt now showing 53R-47D.
RCP polling average showing 53R-47D.
Part of me thinks that this Red Shift isn’t real, that media and pollsters are going out of their way to find voters they think are under-represented and manifesting it.
But I would be a fool to ignore it when virtually every source is saying the same thing.
Jesus Christ, fucking nightmare fuel.
My wife and I used to joke about moving. We aren’t joking, now…
We live in Ohio. You should see Vance’s attack ads. I will say, Ryan’s campaign is pandering to the uneducated people who will inevitably vote for anything with an (R) next to their name on the ballot, and it gives me hope…but only a sliver.
For my part, I’ve tried to point out all the fallacies of "the GOP working for the little guy bullshit, and though I’ve gotten through to a few, I fear “Buckeye Nation,” and everything that goes along with groupthink is too far gone to return to its former status as “bellwether” Swing State.
It’s definitely NOT the state I grew up in.
Sadly, that poll is an outlier.Highly rated, recent polls (like Emerson) show Grassley up by 10 points, same as months ago.
FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe Model is now 55-45 and they’re characterizing it as a “dead heat” rather than “Democrats slightly favored.”
The biggest shift since mid-summer has been toward Johnson in Wiscondin, from about 30% chance of winning to about 70% chance (I’m using FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe model iterations),
The second biggest shift has been in Pennsylvania (starting a bit more recently), where Fetterman’s chances have declined from about 80% to about 60% (darned stroke!).
Arizona has also seen some shifts, but more like a regression to the early-summer mean of Kelly having around 65% chance of winning.