2024 battlegrounds states. What changes will there be compared to '20 and '22?

Politics & Elections
1

Now that Trump has announced, I don’t think it’s too early to start talking about the likely battlegrounds for 2024. Which states do you all think will be purple, pink, and aqua? Are there any states that you think will move from safe to battleground or come off the battleground list? The '20 and '22 list were the same, so going in my assumption is that they’ll be the same in '24.

Purple. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
Aqua. New Hampshire and Virginia.
Pink. North Carolina and Ohio.

In addition to the battlegrounds, what do you all think about the big four of California, New York, Texas, and Florida? They almost certainly won’t flip at the presidential level, but seem to have had a large influence on Republicans managing to barely win the House. How much focus should there be on those four?

2

There are two questions here.
What are the battleground states between Red and Blue?
What are the primary battleground states between moderate R and trump R?
I don’t know if there would be an equivalent for Dems between progressives and moderates. Might depend on if Biden runs for re-election.

For the latter, definitely Alaska but I would also say Colorado where moderate Pubs were able to claim 10’s of thousands more votes than Trumpers in state-wide offices and where a Dem won a heavily red House district CO- 8 and another may steal CO - 3, both from extreme Trumpubs.