I’m not asking about perennial swing states like Florida or Pennsylvania, that have gone back and forth between voting red and blue.
But which state that has consistently voted Republican for presidents do you think has the greatest likelihood of voting Democratic this November?
Arizona? Georgia? North Carolina?
Arizona.
Obama did win NC in 2008, but its been red ever since. NC could go blue too.
I don’t know if GA or TX have a chance of going blue in this election cycle, but maybe 2028 or so.
Admittedly a long shot but Utah might be in play.
Utah’s a very conservative state and that’s made them reliably Republican. But Utahns take their conservative principles seriously - and there are signs they feel Trump is abusing those principles. Trump’s disapproval numbers have run unexpectedly high in the state. In the most recent state election poll Trump’s lead over Biden is down to just three percent.
I really doubt it. Utah is the probably the most never-Trump state there is for conservatives, but I just can’t see it breaking that hard against him. He may win more narrowly than any other Republican candidate would, but I’ll be really shocked if he doesn’t win nonetheless. Similarly GA or TX.
I think Arizona is a likely but far from certain pickup. NC is plausible but I wouldn’t bet on it( I just might bet on Arizona, if I were a betting man ). I think I’d expect Florida to flip before North Carolina.
If Mitt Romney endorses Joe, then Utah is in play.
I’d love to see GA go blue but it’s uphill. But not impossibly so.
I’m going with Arizona and North Carolina for this cycle. My prediction is that even if they don’t tip all the way blue, both of them will be bluer than Florida and Georgia (both of which I predict will have issues with Republican favoring shenanigans). Texas isn’t quite there yet, but give us 8 years and a lack of shenanigans and we’ll get there.
I think AZ and NC definitely this year. I see where Biden has pulled about even in AR of all places, but if this is remotely close the rout is on. GA is an outside shot, depending on how successful voter suppression is. TX is probably a cycle away from flipping.
Arizona, definitely.
Will it flip in November? Maybe, maybe not. But it’s more likely to do so than GA, and probably more likely than NC. I’d rank them AZ over NC by a hair, both of them over GA, and all three of them comfortably over TX, which is moving in the right direction, but still a longshot.
Those are really the only longtime-GOP-controlled states that Biden has any chance of winning. The other GOP-leaning states he might win, like FL, IA, and OH, are states that have recently been swing states. Obama won all three in both 2008 and 2012.
I wouldn’t say “definitely” for any, but I think Arizona is more likely. Georgia seems poised, but I except Kemp to pull out all the stops to drive down turnout in Democratic areas.
Maybe none?
GOP party operatives seem to think that this election will be even better for Agent Orange than 2016.
Do they have a point, or are they smoking rope? One of the comments in the article is from someone who has a friend who lies to pollsters. I certainly think some people lied last time around, so what’s different this time?
I somehow got it into my head that Pennsylvania was a blue state. Obviously I was wrong. :smack:
I wonder about that. On paper Texas should flip soon, with its high Latino population, but I doubt that will happen. Texans in general are quite conservative, and many Texan Latinos (“Texicans”) are descendants of the first wave of Latino residents in Texas (before whites arrived there) and so feel less anxious about Republican immigration policy. Texas’s current slim Republican numbers could simply reflect Trump being a terrible leader rather than a realignment.
Nope. An conservative independent Mormon like McMullin could probably peel a decent chunk from Trump (although I think he would fare worse this time). McMullin got 21% and will be a non-factor this time. But Biden? No way. Approx 70% of Mormons are Republicans and I would wager that is even higher in Utah. Not happening, no matter what Romney does (and Romney’s influence among Mormons is overstated).
You always have people who say bullshit to pollsters and I assume they have some way of trying to weed that out. And I think most people would rather just hang up then waste both their times intentionally feeding pollsters bad info.
Last cycle, I think everyone assumed Trump was going to lose and and people were more likely to lie or not answer than now. Now Trump has won, these people are more emboldened and even the current bad polling just gets “lol remember 2016???” so there’s fewer people embarrassed to admit that they support him.
I take statements from GOP leaders and operatives with a grain of salt. Especially statements with their names attached that they know they’ll be held to later. No one is going to kick them to the curb for over-optimistically supporting the president but they’ll get a ton of blowback for saying that the president is floundering. Supposedly, telling Trump that his poll numbers are actually really good so he doesn’t fly into a tirade is a full time job in the West Wing these days. But, really, what do you expect to see? “GOP Operatives & Party Leaders Say They’re Fucked”?
Arizona looks likely to go blue this year, both for the Presidency and the Senate.
Beyond that, though, it’s complicated. Georgia and North Carolina, and possibly South Carolina and Texas, are already firmly blue… by the numbers. If they were to have fair and democratic elections, the Democrats would win. The question is just whether they’ll have fair and democratic elections (or at least, sufficiently less unfair), and that’s a very unpredictable question, depending more on things like court decisions than on things like voter enthusiasm.
Arizona will follow Colorado into the blue column, making half of the Mountain states – the more populous half – reliably Democratic for the near future.
About 50,000 more Californians move to Texas every year than versy vicey. Texas, you’re next.
About 2/3 of Utah population lives around the SLC area and a lot of that area is blue. Like many West/Sunbelt areas there are many transplants there so SLC is only 50% Mormon now. Eventually the transplants could turn Utah blue but not this year.
That, of course, assumes that more than half of those transplants are democrat. I would not be so sure of that. I believe there are a lot of fleeing republicans.
South Carolina? Even possibly??
In addition to the part of the country it’s in, SC has the problem of its cities being smallish, and a lot of people living in rural areas and small towns, in a nation where the urban/rural divide is the biggest single factor in our politics. It’ll go blue 2-3 cycles after NC and GA do…maybe.
I think it’ll be a while. By the tome it’s even remotely close too many other things will have changed, and the parties will have had to adjust. By then Texas will probably be blue, and Minnesota and Illinois will likely have turned red. In other words the electoral map will be so different it’s not even worth pondering.