AZ. It was close watching the votes come in 2016. And then the voters elected Sinema later. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if it went for Biden. NC I think you might see it in '24.
I will go out on a limb here and say Individual-ONE will Loseiana. It has been so reliably red that it just gets skipped in polling. And it has been hit really hard by the bug, losing a lot of its reliably-red elders.
Even saying this, though, I would be surprised if it were to happen.
I have to go with Arizona being the most likely Red State to go Blue. North Carolina is in second place.
The polling in Texas has been very confusing of late showing Biden even or a point or two ahead in polls that are highly rated by 538. If the Lone Star State does go Blue, 2020 will be a rout like most of us have never seen. Think 1972.
As to the OP, I am not smart enough to answer the question which red state will turn blue this time. But the interesting thing is the question itself. Nobody expects any blue state to turn red. The trend is quite clear.
Don’t delude yourself, it’s zero. No AZ, no GA, no NC, no TX, jesus.
It always gets talked about by the tv hope mongerers and Lucy always pulls the football away.
At this point, MN is more at risk of turning red this year than any of those states are of turning blue.
There’s that confidence again.
that is an impressive username/post combo
538s most recent pooling averages:
MN: B +6.1
AZ: B +4.2
NC: B +2.5
GA: B +0.1
TX: T +1.2
My only friend, you’re demonstrably wrong about NC and AZ not having a pretty good chance. You’re probably wrong about Georgia not having some chance. You’re probably right about Texas.
PA, MI, WI. Get them back and you win. Secure MN. Go for FL.
Wasting time and money in AZ, GA, NC is like me sending love notes to Sofia Vergara.
I agree that more attention should be paid than in 2016 to the three you mentioned…but allocating SOME resources to AZ and NC (and also FL and NV) is important, too — to boost Dem chances in downballot races, among other reasons.
As for GA, I agree it’s a tough call. There, I think resources should be focused mainly in ensuring the voting PROCESS is fair.
Michigan resident here and Michigan is definitely not reliably red or long-time red. It actually is more likely to be reliably blue, but Trump managed to win by 10,000 votes in 2016.
I think Michigan is likely to go Biden and I’m not sure how close it will even be. It voted Obama twice, Kerry in 2004, and Gore in 2000.
Trump really did manage to stumble into some very unlikely results, Michigan being one of them.
Fuck downballot races, Congress doesn’t do shit and congressional candidates should fend for themselves.
I’ll trade both houses of congress for the White House.
We are in DEFCON 1, quit giving attention to sunbaked half-wits, it never works. Get the job first, then do something nice for them if you want.
Alrighty then…
…In other news, see you all on the other side!
Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?
I agree nail down PA and MI first. That gives Smokin’ Joe 268 EV if he keeps all the Hillary states.
From that point, just need AZ or IA or FL or NC or GA or WI.
Respectfully disagree about the downballot races, at least where the Senate is concerned. Even in the event of a Biden win, if the Senate remains in Republican hands Yertle the Majority Leader will be in a position to sabotage any legislation he (and his puppet masters) don’t like — which will be pretty much everything. Plus he’ll be able to put the kibosh on Biden’s judicial appointments, ostensibly so that “the people” can have their say in the next election.
(Should he lose his own election that would be icing on the proverbial cake, but while he appears to be in a dogfight I wouldn’t put money on him going down.)
Conservative here: I’ve been predicting Texas’ gradual purpling to blue for a while, and originally figured 2024 for the flip. My WAG was it would be driven by the large California migration here. But surveys following Cruz’ near miss showed that Beto’s support was mainly from long-time residents. And that many of our new arrivals were voting more “red” than we realized.
So I’m stumped now. Demographically Texas will eventually shift, but it might be delayed by the influx of fed-up California transplants. Who knows?
The chances of Moscow Mitch losing are slim. Even with nearly even polling; the dirty tricks will shift the vote. Witness the closing of polling places for the primary election. 95% were closed. Most in large cities with significant minority populations. Georgia is also big on restricting polling places along with voter purges at the last minute.
(Haven’t figured out how to reply with quote yet.)
We’re there!
Agreed.
I don’t think there will be any major changes, it will just be fought in the swing states. People always talk about some inevitable change, when this generation gets older, when the demographics shift, whatever. Never happens.
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