I see a lot of Trump will take this swing state and that one stays blue … but rarely is there any reason behind ht. We have so many threads that maybe I miss a few but overall I see “Trump wins Georgia.” with no actual reasoning. Biden won with 306 EVs meaning Harris needs to lose 37 blue votes from 2020 (assuming no pickups) to lose so I started this thread to have a in-depth discussion specific to possible blue to red flips. And sure, why not throw in possible red to blue flips too.
I think that at this point, very few undecideds will go to Trump. The undecideds are split between Harris and third parties. If I am correct, then despite Trump’s slim lead in a few states will not carry over and Harris wins them. This means the only two states that have a chance to flip are AZ and GA (27 EVs). I think that Dems will remember how Trump tried to steal their EVs and say “F Him” and get out to vote just to deny him their state. Question is can that overcome Trump’s lead?
I’d feel better if Harris could steal NC but I just don’t think it will happen but it and PA will be close enough to not call that night.
Best case scenario I see for Harris at this point is that NC goes to her largely because it is a purple state with more people moving there from blue states every year AND Mark Robinson is such a horrible candidate for Governor that there will be some benefit for the D’s in the Presidential race.
Michigan will go to DJT by a hair largely because of Arab/Muslim American voters in that state feel betrayed by Biden regarding the Gaza/Lebanon/Israeli war. Most of these voters will sit out the election or go 3rd party enabling the GOP to get it. They don’t care if it helps Trump, they have been very vocal about punishing the Democrats.
GA and AZ will go to DJT because they are more red than blue and 2020 was a fluke. Plus in GA gerrymandering and voter suppression.
This would result in 277 Harris - 261 Trump.
NOTE: It could easily go the other way and Trump could win 277 - 261 depending on what happens in NC.
I retired from prognostication when GA went blue in 2020. Never imagined it in my lifetime, I have no idea what’s going on.
I can say Harris/Walz yard signs in my purple Atlanta neighborhood are sprouting up in a way that I don’t remember ever seeing for Biden, Clinton, or Obama. My early voting site was doing heavy volume, but highly efficient with short waits. 15 minutes to find parking, 5 minutes to vote.
There is of course some Trump signage, but less of it, less ostentatioius, and notably further back from the road (I guess to deter vandalism or theft).
I can’t imagine that the “Puerto Rico is a trash island” bit has helped Trump in PA, a state that’s said to have a half million PR voters who are said to be highly pissed.
I would cosign on this much. For Trump to increase his share, he’s got to capture the persuadable middle, which has been getting smaller and smaller. By contrast, Harris can make up the difference on getting Dems off the couch. Early voting numbers suggest the numbers are there, that women’s fury over abortion is going to cost Trump as everyone guessed (except Trump)
I’m extremely worried about Pennsylvania. Biden won it by less than 2%. Right now it’s polling at a dead heat. It’s getting hammered by Trump ads and Trump support is very strong outside of the cities. It’s the main reason why I’m pessimistic about the outcome of the election.
I’m almost as worried about Michigan. Biden won it by over 4%. Harris is polling at about +1. I would not be surprised if she lost there.
The big picture why is that I think the systemic error is due to go against Trump this time. The demographics he’s made headway in are the lower propensity voters while Harris has picked up greater strength in the more reliable voting groups.
The numbers of possible disaffected Arab voters in MI is not large, and I believe is greatly exaggerated.
I’m working the polls in NJ and have been through three days of early voting. I live in a tiny blue-ish pocket of a red county in this blue state, but during early voting everyone in the county can vote at any location. We obviously don’t know how the votes are being cast but here are some observations from the ground for what they are worth:
The turnout is wild—the numbers are staggering everyone. If it’s true that turnout generally benefits Democrats then Harris has it in the bag.
There are MANY first-time voters coming out. And not just young people. I had new citizens (yay!) and also people who simply had never bothered to vote before showing up.
SO many women come in with a sense of purpose, vote in 30 seconds and come out with a huge smile. No mistaking their mission!
Our voting location has had a constant stream of voters since doors open to doors closing on every voting day so far. This is crazy and I am, frankly, terrified for Election Day.
I can’t speak for @TeroSunbear, but the biggest difference between Georgia and the other swing states that that Republicans have complete control of state government – the Governor’s office, Secretary of State’s office, big majorities in the state legislature, etc. There’s a thousand ways for them to put a thumb on the scale. They were caught flat-footed last time, but I’d be surprised if they repeat that mistake.
I saw that in the first weekend about 10% of expected voters voted. It doesn’t make a huge difference. Harris should win the state by at least 12 points.
Only states I could see Trump taking from Biden would be Arizona and Georgia, just because they were red states for so long - similar to how Trump took Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2016 when he wasn’t “supposed to” but those two states then reverted back to their normal blue selves in 2020.
I was shocked when I saw GA flip in 2020, but I will tell you that just from eyeballing yard signs, in 2024 I see greater Dem support and less Trump support than I recall from 2020. Early voting has been doing a very brisk business.
From where I sit, I don’t see a reason to expect GA to flip back to Trump, though voter-suppression shenanigans are absolutely a wildcard that shouldn’t be discounted.
My extremely uneducated “guess” is Harris keeps all her blue states, and wins Wisconsin, Michigan & Pennsylvania but loses the other swing states. Should be enough for a razor thin EC win.
I’m just hoping she is sitting on election night with 271 so that PA and NC do not determine victory.
I concur. I can’t see how Harris has less support than Biden in the blue states and Trump is losing support; there were no “Republicans for Biden” in 2020. But like I’ve said here. If you are a Democrat in a swing state and you don’t vote, YOU are the reason Trump won.
I am cautiously optimistic about Georgia. In 2020 they had 4,935,487 votes for president. As of 3pm on October 30, early voting is sitting at 3,372,000 or 68 percent of the 2020 total. I think that we are going to see record turnout this year.
