Michigan may be lost by Harris due to Arab/Muslim voters anger

Politics & Elections
,
1

Continuing the discussion from Share your 2024 electoral map prediction:

I have mentioned in a few other threads that there is evidence Arab/Muslim American voters in Michigan may seriously impact Harris’ chance of winning the state and IMO cost her the election. I am starting this thread because I do not want to hijack those other topics by responding to posters who do not understand the point I am trying to make or who have, in at least one case, completely misrepresented what I was saying.

More than one poster has replied like Euphonious_Polemic did in the thread this is split from:

You are also assuming that these voters are supremely stupid, and think that a Trump administration will not continue to arm Israel, and also as a bonus, start putting these same voters into camps.

Steven_Maven did something similar in the What states will flip from Biden to Trump? when I suggested MI would go to Trump for this reason.

I have not suggested these voters are stupid, I have suggested they are outraged that Democrats have done nothing to stop the killings in Gaza or Lebanon by the IDF.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not in any way interested in discussing the politics of this issue or thoughts about Netanyahu or Israel.

The point of discussion in this thread is whether or not there are enough voters in MI who

  • will not vote
  • vote third party
  • or in a few cases vote for Trump

All of this would be done in order to punish Democrats. I am deeply concerned there are enough voters to throw MI to the GOP and put DJT back in the White House.

Here are several articles where Arab/Muslim Americans discuss this and explain why they feel this is what they have to do:

Arab American voters struggle to back Harris (from PBS)

“I love this country, but I’ll tell you, we have never been so disappointed in this country as we are now,” said Nabih H. Ayad, chairman of the Arab American Civil Rights League. “We wanted to give the Democratic Party the opportunity to do something, and they haven’t.”
“The one line we can’t cross,” Ayad said, “is genocide.”

Arab Americans in Michigan and Georgia sour on Kamala Harris (The Hill)

“There’s double trouble that has to be addressed, both the ongoing situation in Gaza but also the now new circumstance created in Lebanon,” said Jim Zogby, the founding director of the Arab American Institute and a former adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). “I don’t know where Harris’s majority comes from if you’re losing a percentage of nonwhite voters, a percentage of young voters and a significant percentage of Arab American voters. I don’t know where you get the rest from.”

Arab Americans and Muslim voters helped Biden win in 2020. This year they could sink Harris (CBC)

(Walid) Fidama, a genial man with eight daughters, confirmed he won’t be voting for a Democratic president this November for the first time since he got his American citizenship in 1994. The party, he says, needs to understand votes from even the most party loyal are not guaranteed — and they’ve lost his ballot this year over the crisis in the Middle East.
“We are Democrats, but the Democrats are not following what humanity needs and for what the people need around the world,” he said.
“If they keep not listening to the right things, which we need and what the people need, they are gonna get hurt.”

“I cannot emphasize my [disgust] with the current administration and their lack of leadership, their lack of empathy toward the Palestinian people, their lack of empathy toward the Lebanese people,” said Alsadah, 62, chair of the Yemeni American Democratic Caucus, who declined to specify how he’ll be voting.

“I’m so enraged, it’s no longer hurt. It’s rage. I want the Democrats to lose by any means necessary — and that means voting for Trump,” said Dearborn-based political activist Samraa Luqman, who was once “so far left” she wrote in Bernie Sanders’ name in 2020.

A Muslim Mayor in Michigan Endorses Trump (NYT gift link)

Mr. Ghalib told The Times that he and other Muslim Americans feel dismissed and overlooked by Democrats. He cited the Biden administration’s support for Israel in its war with Hamas, and noted that more than 100,000 people protested by voting uncommitted in Michigan’s Democratic presidential primary. But, he said, “nothing changed” in terms of Mr. Biden’s policies.

I will note, Ghalib is a conservative Muslim who is opposed to LGBTQ rights, trans rights and abortion. But he has a point about the 100,000 voters who voted uncommitted in the MI Dem primary. Those are real people, most probably not as conservative as he is. If they don’t come home to Harris in a couple of days she is well and truly screwed.

2
first post hijack hidden

“Uncommitted” isn’t on the ballot, Trump has openly said that his Israel policy is to give Bibi carte blanche to do whatever he wants, and last week Trump threw a white supremacist rally where one of his speakers said that Arabs are trained to kill Americans when they’re two years old.

The fence-sitters will break for Harris.

3

I’d like to think that this voting block is smart enough to vote for the lesser of two evils, and to realize that Harris did not have the power to unilaterally make Netenyahu bend to her will.

4

Your response was so fast I see no way you read this entire post or the articles I linked. And your comments about Bibi ignore my request to limit this discussion.

7

Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard. ~Mencken

If enough Muslim voters in Michigan teach the Democrats a lesson then they will quickly see the fruits of their lessons.

As to whether there are truly enough of them to flip the election result there, quick napkin math says yes. But of course there are many more non-Arab voters that might not support Harris if she took a more anti-Israel stance. So if she loses MI it will be entirely impossible to determine whether that one issue was the reason.

8

I don’t see how we can discuss how Arab voters will vote without factoring Israel into it.

9

Please read the articles I linked. This is about what these voters are saying, not about Netanyahu or how Harris may be able to change his positions.

10

I’m going to instruct you to either comply with the intent of this thread, or don’t post any further in it.

This is pretty threadshitty.

Moderating

11

I don’t understand the question or the limits of this debate. Are there Muslim voters that will not vote Harris to punish Democrats? Of course. That is undeniable.

Is it possible that there are more of them than the margin between Harris and Trump? Sure.

Does that mean Harris is wrong to support Israel from a purely political calculation view? Not necessarily. Every decision gains and loses votes.

12

Certainly Israel plays into the overall thing spurring on their anger. This thread is intended to be a discussion about whether or not there is enough anger among this demographic that it could throw the state to Trump.

I don’t understand why this is so difficult to understand for so many posters.

13

This is exactly the question I am addressing in this thread.

By the things I said at the beginning of the thread this isn’t.

14

Ok. I will bow out then because I have no idea what you actually want to discuss.

15

But you want to restrict what arguments we can make as to whether or not that’s the case? Isn’t that just poisoning the well?

I’m out too. I’m not sure what you expect to happen in this thread.

16

@Smapti and @Jas09 - The discussion is whether there will be enough Arab/Muslim voters in MI who sit out the election, vote third party or vote Trump to throw the election to Trump.

I don’t understand what is so difficult to understand about that.

17

Yet if you read the articles I linked in the OP you would see there are many people who are fed up with voting for the lesser of two evils and are intent on punishing the Democrats. Some of them actually say exactly those words - punish the Democrats.

18

I, for one, hope not. It’s a fools errand to vote 3rd. party, not vote, or vote for trump. I very much hope there aren’t enough people to give that fool MI.

I agree, with the above, that it will be difficult to impossible to know precisely why she lost the state if she does lose. There’s no doubt that the ArabAmerican voting block will have an impact of some sort.

19

I mean it depends on how the rest of the state goes. If Harris is otherwise up 500 votes then sure it could make a difference. If Harris is otherwise up 1% then it would be almost impossible to swing the result.

20

Currently the state is considered even, 47% to 47%. In that case this could clearly cost Harris the state, and the election.

21

I would note also that the numerous Democrats who say, “Arab voters are irrational for behaving this way!” are kind of beside the point. Whether it’s rational or not is not important - whether they will do what they say, is.

If a voter feels he should vote a certain way, saying “He shouldn’t!” is meaningless.

22

So if your argument is that these people exist… Well sure. They exist. I guess we’re in agreement on that.