Michigan may be lost by Harris due to Arab/Muslim voters anger

Politics & Elections
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23

I’m really trying to not well-poison or violate your premise, but there is absolutely no way to know either before or after the election whether the Biden/Harris position regarding Gaza cost her sufficient Arab/Muslim voters in MI to cost her the election.

It is impossible to know beforehand because we do not know what the margin will be. Clearly it is possible, as there are at least 100k such voters, and Trump won Michigan in 2016 by 11k. So maybe 10% of those voters switching sides would be enough.

But even after the election, if Harris loses by less than the number of Arab/Muslim voters that abandoned her, you cannot say that cost her the election. Because her policies in this area also effect the opinion and votes of non-Arab/Muslim voters. Which I know you don’t want to talk about.

This is why I don’t see how your OP can be answered with its current parameters. Unless it’s simply “do lots of angry Arab/Muslim voters exist, and may they vote Trump and/or 3rd party?” In which case, yes obviously they do.

24

And if Harris had come across as firmly anti-Israel and pro-palestine, then this could clearly gave cost Harris the state and the election.

Next up, how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?

25

The argument is - do they exist in large enough numbers to throw the state to DJT or not. 100,000 voted uncommitted in the D primary for exactly this reason. What % have to sit out the election for vote for Stein or god forbid DJT will it take to cause Harris to lose?

Given how close the state is polling I think 40K could be enough. That’s not good.

26

Yet they will vote for someone who effectively said Muslims couldn’t come to the US?
Maybe they’ll vote 3rd party but there is no way they can think Trump is their friend.

27

Certainly voters speaking to the media gives us an indication beforehand what the cost may be to the Harris campaign.

Did you read the articles I linked in the OP? There are many more interviews with Arab/Muslim voters in MI saying much the same things.

28

If you read the OP’s articles (and there are many more as well) clearly some of them do. Or at least, not as much of an enemy. But we’ve been told that discussing their motivation or the rationality of their reasoning, or whether Harris policy wrt the Israel/Gaza conflict is the correct one (politically, morally, or otherwise) is all off topic here.

All we can say is, “yes they exist” and “yes, they could be larger than her margin of loss”.

29

Correct. And also, if she loses the state, we can’t say the reason was he Arab/Muslim voter’s anger. Because we won’t know.

30

In the articles I linked in the OP there are at least 2 voters who say they plan to vote for DJT. Makes no sense to me either and I know 2 is not a big number. But as I have said, most indications are they will abstain or vote 3rd party. I see that as basically the same thing.

31

You could certainly offer cites that say there are more Arab/Muslim Americans who intend to vote Harris than not. Or how many of these voters Harris can lose and still carry the state.

My request to not get into D policy about Gaza, etc was because I know it will rapidly devolve into a conversation that is about nothing else. We have plenty of threads about that already IMO.

32

Lots of things can be the reason candidates lose close elections. People vote for all sort of eclectic reasons. This certainly is one of things, but not a especially major one. The Arab population is relatively small, even in Michigan. Most voters, even Arabs, don’t especially care about foreign affairs. Those who do many would otherwise not have voted, or voted for a republican, or will still vote for Harris. If Harris loses it will be due to primarily inflation and immigration.

33

I agree inflation and immigration are likely to be the primary reasons she would lose nationwide. Yet, this is an issue that polling and interviews have shown is a huge problem for this demographic. MI is one of the states where the race is close enough it could be decisive. There are a lot of these voters in other states but it isn’t as much of a concern because the race isn’t as close there.

But do you really believe if the Arab/Muslim vote share in MI for Biden in 2020 or Clinton in 2016 shifted by 30%, 40%, 50%, 60% or more away from Harris in 2024 it would go unnoticed?

Actually, Michael Moore is on MSNBC right now talking about how in 2020 Biden got 70% of this group and before Biden dropped out support had dropped to 12% for the Democrats. That ain’t good.

34

It’s not. But again there isn’t much to say other than “oh, well.” It might swing the state to Trump. But if so it is kind of baked-in damage. Just like people who object enough to continuing to send money to Ukraine to vote against Harris, is baked-in damage. There is and was nothing to be done. Come down hard on Israel and you might lose as many or more pro-Israel votes. Trying to thread foreign policy based on electoral pandering is the trickiest of minefields.

It’s very much like a fucking pandemic. You can’t schedule when the world is going to take a shit on your plans. You just have to roll with the punches and play the hand you’re dealt. So maybe due to the war in Gaza, democracy in the U.S. is lost (to be potentially over-dramatic). Future generations of super-intelligent apes will read about it in their history books and will go “wow, bad timing - that sure sucked for them.” But there isn’t much Harris could do other than try to be empathetic. It’s understandable if that is not enough for some folks…but…shrug.

35

From where we have discussed this before:

Recapping - IF the Arab Institute and the YouGov poll (that had a majority of respondents who voted in 2020 saying they voted for Trump when actual voting was two to one Biden) are accurate, then the impact could be as much as 45K votes.

It is NOT impossible for all of: those polls are correct ; MI will be THE tipping point state; AND for it to be decided by 45K or less.

And voters in MI of Arab descent who would have voted for the D candidate if not for events in Gaza, are aware of that possibility, aware that theirs is THE vote that might have kept Trump out of the White House.

That’s a scary thought to think.

Now some think that anything different might be better. But most are very aware that Trump would be much worse. The fact that it is possible to not just be a sign of protest but THE tipping point vote that decides the presidency and what happens in the ME, the numbers who will die as a consequence of Trump as president? That may be … sobering.

Personally though I do not see those two polls or anecdata as good evidence that such will happen, and I am expected that there will be SOME systemic error of significance one way or the other. MI will IMHO be won or lost by more than 45K and so will the mass of swing states as a group. If the result is that Harris loses MI then I would shocked if she wouldn’t have lost with a win in MI. Likewise in a win. This group of states all within 1% will likely all go one way or the other together.

ETA. I am very sure that Harris has private polling much more reliable than these publicly available ones.

36

So, i actually think the right play for an Arab in Michigan is to claim to vote for a third party, but actually vote for Harris. There’s no way anyone can prove you did it. You make the Dems sweat, and realize your demographic is worth listening to. But you don’t actually invite the even more brutal butcher into your home.

I have no idea whether Michigan Arabs agree with me on that, but I’d guess that at least some will. Because it’s trump who shut down the immigration of Syrian refugees, and who may attempt to kick a lot of Arabs out of the US, in addition to supporting Israel.

37

DSeid, I thought about linking to that previous discussion when I was putting together the OP but it already seemed a bit long and unwieldy as it was.

My reason for starting this thread was largely because I felt everywhere I mentioned this was part of my reasoning about a Harris loss it risked leading to a potential hijack. I remember the points you mention and appreciate them. But I still remain very anxious this will be how Harris loses.

38

The related issue is the election consequence of doing more to try to win back however many of those votes that will be lost.

I’m not sure what she COULD say that would win back someone whose belief is that she is complicit with genocide.

A strong attempt to do so (one that placed Israel as the bad guy) could be easily interpreted by some right of center voters that she has been courting, and some fraction of Jewish voters, as throwing Israel under the bus.

There are not that many fewer Jewish voters in MI as Arab ones, and PA has a voting population that is 5% Jewish. Any statements possibly strong enough to win back truly disaffected Arab support would risk losing PA and even have some offset within MI.

Political calculus wise she could only thread the needle as best she could.

39

Is there polling showing that drop? I think even 30% is grossly overshooting the likely drop. Arabs aren’t a monolith. They aren’t going to all have the same view on foreign policy (or even all care about it). My guess is Harris maybe loses 10% relative to Biden, which again would only be the difference in a really close election.

40

The Uncommitted National Movement wouldn’t endorse Harris but opposed Trump and warned that voting third-party would support Trump. Linky. The key line to me is:

Uncommitted National Movement co-founder Layla Elabed, who is the sister of Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib, noting that they’re not encouraging voters to not cast their votes for Harris.

IMHO, that supports your theory: they’ll vote Harris but refuse to say so because they don’t want her to feel she has their vote. It doesn’t bind any given voter, who could still vote Trump, Stein, Kennedy (where he’s still on the ballot), or skip the presidential vote. But then no endorsement has ever bound anyone. It sounds more like “don’t take us for granted” than a rejection of Harris. You’re really taking pains to not burn any bridges when you’re “not encouraging voters to not cast their votes for Harris.”

41

They don’t. But the point is they don’t think the Dems are their friend either. They have no friends, not that would make any difference in terms of policy. On what is currently their most important political question, they see no meaningful difference between the parties. This is what outside commentators fail to grasp: we recognize that Trump would almost certainly be even more bloodthirsty, even more “let go of the leash,” but the people we’re talking about already don’t see much of a leash being applied.

My wife is Persian, and this is a very common view expressed among her friends and family when this question is brought up. I don’t bother to argue it with them, because I’m not from there and I don’t have any historical skin in the game. They feel this way, fully and deeply. They see no difference between the Dems and the GOP on this and they see no point in picking one or the other. Either way, Israel gets free rein to do whatever it wants.

Trying to debate whether they’re right or wrong for feeling this way, from an outsider perspective, is a waste of time and energy, because they’re not listening and their minds won’t be changed. Arguing that their view is ignorant, misplaced, self-destructive, whatever, is entirely irrelevant, because they feel how they feel. And moreover, in the context of this thread, within the boundaries of the debate as framed, it’s entirely immaterial. They believe what they believe.

The only question is whether there are enough of them to matter in the election, and, as stated by others before me, that’s entirely unknown. It’s possible some who hold this belief will treat it as a red line, and not vote (or, occasionally, cast a burn-it-all-down vote for Trump). It’s also possible some will have a moment of rational reflection and decide that while on this specific point there’s no meaningful difference there are other balancing factors on other issues that sufficiently justify a Harris vote. Both scenarios are plausible, and indeed many individuals will fall on both sides of that line. We just can’t know the proportion of how it will break down, and whether the election will be impacted.

But any argument that these people are “wrong” to feel this way is an absolute waste of time.

42

I’m sure we all feel his pain. As a hate filled bigot he naturally wants to vote Republican. But deep down he knows that most of the other hate filled bigots in America hate him too. Nothing for him to do but bleat about how the Democrats are hurting the wrong people. Or something.

Seriously, you should pay this man no heed. He is not your friend and you just need to accept he will never be your friend. It is futile trying to game the system to somehow win his vote. If he votes D then fine. If he doesn’t, no point worrying about it. The Democrats should not be running any sort of strategy to win the hard line bigot vote, since it is a complete betrayal of their own priciples and core supporters.

It is quite possible that fascism will triumph in America tomorrow. If it does, then that will be because enough Americans wanted it. Americans who don’t want it will not be to blame, and shouldn’t fret about if only they had played the game slightly differently they might have averted disaster for a few more years. That way lies madness. Democrats have nothing to be ashamed of, whatever happens history will remember that you were the good guys who resisted the forces of darkness as well as you could.

Good luck and best wishes.

Sandwich
(today’s special is peanut butter and jelly, followed by Mom’s apple pie)