The entire league seems to be of the same mind. I’m liking the idea of the Packers going against the trend and spending CB money on a Safety, especially after spending twice as much to make a lateral move from Jones to Jacobs at RB.
Our safeties have been pretty not good for a couple years. It seems we get one good year, an ok year, and then a couple bad years out of our safeties since Collins/Woodson. I’ve also heard rumors the new DC likes to use a bunch of single-high safety looks, and we didn’t have a guy for that last year. Even McKinney’s contract, Green Bay will barely top league average for safeties.
Jones would have cost as much cap space for one more year as Jacobs will. With his injury history and age, the FO wanted him to take another pay cut. Given he’d already taken two of them, I understand why he decided to deny it. He was a great locker room guy and fantastic leader for all the young guns, but that’s not worth $7m. I wish him the best for 16 weeks of the season.
From PFF:
XAVIER MCKINNEY SIGNS WITH GREEN BAY PACKERS
2023 PFF GRADE: 87.8 (4th/95)
2023 PFF W.A.R.: 0.19 (7th)
Fit/need grade: A+
Value grade: B+
Contract: Four years, $68 million ($17 million per year)
McKinney was the best player available at safety this offseason and is a major beneficiary of the poor draft class at the position, as well. The Packers neglected the safety position almost entirely last season, and now they reverse course and make a big addition on the backend. We’ve said this too often in recent years, but on paper, this Packers defense should be very good.
I don’t understand this statement. Are you talking cumulatively? Using cumulative number at this stage isn’t very meaningful since teams have a lot of unfilled spots. McKinney is #1 in overall cash for Safeties in 2024 by almost $10M and is 4th by AAV. He’s making essentially the same AAV as Winfield Jr. who was franchise tagged. He’s the only Packers Safety not on a rookie/league minimum deal which is the only thing keeping that cumulative number down. I, for one, hope that’s where they stay come Week 1.
Jacobs too is #1 in terms of total cash at his position in 2024. He’s #6 for AAV. Jones was making the exact same salary and now carries a dead cap hit nearly equal to Jacobs AAV. The Packers we forced to push Jacob’s cap hit into future years to absorb the Jones dead money, which means there’s a good chance they’ll repeat the cycle in a year or two with Jacobs.
At least based on the prevailing conventional wisdom the Packers are committing a big chunk of cap space to two positions which most teams are devaluing.
Using overall cash is like only looking at the X year, $Ym part of a contract to decide if it’s good. No football team run by non-morons has cash issues. EVERY team has to figure out their cap. Cap is King, cash is the Jester. When I talk cost, or money, or anything like that, I’m talking cap. It’s the only thing that matters.
A top 5 safety getting top 5 safety money? Oh no, the horror. And yet the cap hit doesn’t even end up in the top 5 until 2026. I’m pretty sure there’s going to be more contracts to catch up in the next couple years. Some might even have a higher overall cash value higher than McKinney’s in that season.
I did use the position cumulative, because a single player’s cap hit isn’t important on it’s own. It looks like the Packers are paying roughly league average for the position, even with McKinney’s overall cash. Is your argument that the Packers are going to go higher than that when other teams start filling in those empty safety slots?
The Packers (and pretty much every other intelligent team) always push cap hits out, because $10m in cap this year costs more than $10m in cap next year. Jones’ cap hit was going to come due, no matter what. The front office has been pushing his cap off for years to help account for Qaaron’s ego-boost salary demands. It was keep Jones for one year by adding another $6m in cap (which they tried to do), or go elsewhere. Instead, they can get two years of Jacobs for $22m. And Jacobs is far more likely to play the entire season, while Aaron Jones is almost guaranteed to miss time.
Jacobs’ contract is pretty team friendly, from a get-out-of-it view. The only guaranteed money is the signing bonus, which will end up hitting at ~$3m a year. Saquon Barkley’s contract will cost 20% more over the same two year period.
The Packers are committing a decent chunk of cap space on two positions that a lot of teams are devaluing. McKinney is getting a Harrison Smith-equivalent contract three years later and five years younger. Jacobs, while probably slightly overpaid, still brings the cap space for this year to…$13m, or 5% of the cap. While you can’t field an entire team using that rate (you’d only reach 40 players before running out of cap), for a pair of arguably best-available-players that fill holes before the draft, that’s not big at all. Hell, they could sign them AGAIN and still have cap for rookies and possibly a mid-year repair.
Washington GM Adam Peters appears to have the full green light to do whatever he wants. No big splashes, but making up for it with volume.
Looks like they just picked up Bobby Wagner on a 1-year deal. Even as bad as their LBs were last season this doesn’t really move the needle for them all that much. From what I hear he’s still great in run support, but is a liability in coverage. He’s 33 years old, I believe it. I suspect it’s more of a coach-on-the-field type of role he’s being signed for. It’s highly unlikely they expect him to be on the field for 60 plays a game.
That’s an over-simplification. You can move the cap hits around, but any cap savings in 2024 is a cap liability in future years. AAV is the critical component when evaluating the investment at the position relative to others, and cash out in 2024 matters since that directly leads to any potential dead cap on the back end. You’re burning $12M in cap for Jones to play against you this year. While it’s accurate to say money later costs less than money today, a liability is still a liability. Jacobs isn’t “cheap” because his cap hit in 2024 is only $5M
Not sure how you’re arriving at that number. Jacobs cap hit is about $5M. Jones is $12M. You’re at ~$17M in cap allocated to the RB position and you only have one on the roster right now. Unless you plan to go with only league minimum/day 3 rookies to fill out the position you’re almost assuredly committing north of $26M to the RB position.
I’m saying the Packers are almost certainly going to sign another 2 or 3 Safeties. Likewise, some other teams are going to sign, restructure, trade and/or release Safeties before final rosters. Looking at roster rankings in one day into the league year is pointless.
Unguaranteed AAV is worth less than the bytes used to argue it. If it’s not guaranteed, or already paid out, it is meaningless. It’s as close to fictional as can be, given the nature of NFL contracts. Cash CAN be useful, but you can’t compare cash in a year a player signs a contract and gets a decent signing bonus against players that aren’t getting that. Jacob’s cash is higher than Barkley’s. At no point in the next three years does Jacobs cap hit match it. Jacobs is literally the cheaper of the two players, despite the cash. Cash is meaningless in terms of running a team.
We’re also capping $19m for Bakhtiari to play against us (except the Jets didn’t finish in the right division slot to visit Green Bay). $5m each for Rasul Douglas and Darnell Savage. A two-year total of $11m for De’Vondre Campbell. Dead cap happens. And it’s far less this year than last, and takes most of the ugly cap off the books in time for Love’s extension and a whole boat-load of space next year.
Well, the sentence just before your snip talks about McKinney, not Jones, so I don’t know why you’re still trying to squeeze Jones in there.
But the Jones hit was coming no matter what. IIRC, his dead cap hit was actually something like $7m this year and another $5m next year. That $12m was going to hit the cap one way or another. It was there. Like I said earlier, Jones’ cap was pushed out repeatedly to help keep Qaaron happy, right up until he decided he didn’t like the people giving him record contracts every 2-3 years. By cutting him, they SAVED ~$5m. So it’s $17m in cap for Jones, or $17m in cap for Jacobs. And yeah, Green Bay’s almost certainly going to grab a couple league minimum guys, maybe a draft pick if there’s someone that fits. They’re definitely not going to sign another two Josh Jacobs’ worth of cap space.
Green Bay has 63 on the roster, 7 of those at safety. Everybody signed from here on out means someone else is going away. It’s not that big of a deal. We’re past the first and second rounds of free agency. By this time next week, it’s filling in with JAG.
Cash out is definitionally guaranteed. You’re talking out of both sides your mouth here.
I quoted the statement in its entirety. I still don’t know what you meant by $13M in cap space in that context. Jacobs cap hit is $5M. The Packers currently have $25M in cap space following those two signings. I included Jones because you can’t account for the money allocated to the RB position without also including dead cap.
That is some seriously creative accounting. If he played out his contract, then sure, maybe you’d have paid him $17M over 2 seasons. But as you noted, non-guaranteed money is ephemeral. If you’d have kept Jones for one more year and cut him next year you’d still “save” that $5M. In no way did replacing Jones now with a higher paid Jacobs save money, cash or cap.
Edit: Double checked and Jones contract ended in 2024. I think your memory is wrong here. His cap hit was unavoidable this year. I can see no logic by which you save $5M through this action.
I wasn’t counting the reserves/future contract guys. Probably a mistake on my end now that the league year has started. When you count all those guys, you’re at about $22M. I think it’s a near certainty that at least a couple of those guys are going to the PS to be replaced with JAG veterans at $2-3M. contracts upping the overall number.
Barkley’s first two years are guaranteed, plus the signing bonus. His cash this year is lower, but if he’s cut, they still have to pay and cap both years. The combination of those two makes Barkley more expensive literally every year of his contract. Please enlighten me where the doublespeak is there.
You literally skipped the first sentence of the paragraph. The one that talks about McKinney. A moment of thought instead of tired gotcha attempts would lead one to think maybe I’m talking about McKinney and Jacobs. It wasn’t terribly clear, but I still don’t know how you keep trying to insert Jones.
11 million salary. 3.2 million signing bonus amortization. 750k in workout/roster bonuses. 2.5 million in restructure bonus. All told, $17.6m. Dead cap after cut, $12m. I’ll let you finish the math.
Spotrac has us at $27m, minus the $3.7 that’ll hit 6/1 when the Campbell release goes into effect. Roughly 10% of the cap left before the draft and any other pickups isn’t a bad place to be. And I’d bet money Green Bay will still be middle of the road for the safety group at the start of the season.
What does Barkley have to do with anything? The Eagles and the Packers are both wildly over-investing in the RB position. Bravo. I’m utterly lost on what point you think you’re making here.
I’m not playing gotcha journalism here. You made a statement, or a series of statements, that ended in $13M in cap space. I can’t back into the math you’re using to deduce your meaning. Instead of being combative it would be awesome if you just clarified what you meant.
I keep bringing up Jones because that’s the whole point of my criticism. Between the Jones dead cap and the Jacobs contract, you’re heavily invested in the RB position. It’s not some non-sequitur. You can’t evaluate the Jacobs contract in a bubble since it directly caused the Packers to eat $12.5M in dead cap, they are inextricably linked.
We shall see.
I went with a similar AAV contract. I can point out Jacobs is cheaper than Swift this year, and not much more expensive next year, if you’d like.
McKinney. If I mention McKinney, plus Jacobs $5m, equals $13m, what’s the takeaway? Jones! Or maybe McKinney’s cap hit might be in the range of $8m. You were willing to look up Jones’ contract (incorrectly), but never thought to look at the player mentioned?
And the Jones dead cap was going to happen unless he took another pay cut. Jacobs was the backup plan. I’ve been pointing that out from the beginning. Jones wouldn’t take a $5-6m pay cut, and I don’t blame him for that, but that was the reason he was released, not because they signed Jacobs. That’s why I keep dismissing it. Your order of operations has been wrong this entire time.
Indy signs Joe Flacco as their backup quarterback.
Keenan Allen to the Bears for a 4th. Didn’t see that one coming. Maybe the Chargers are looking at WR in the draft, but they cut Mike Williams too.
This one was a shocker. This seems like an absolute win for the Bears. We can afford the salary, especially since the Chargers are eating most of it, and he’s still playing at an elite level. Some doubts about his age and his injury history of course, but a 4th rounder is pretty cheap for a legit WR1. I seriously hope we don’t do an extension, but this is the last year of his deal so it will be something to monitor.
The Bears lost Mooney and most mocks have MHJ, Nabers and Odunze all off the board before we pick at 9. This gives us the freedom to trade back instead of trading up. Behind Moore the cupboard was bare so something needed to be done. Trading a pick for a 1-year rental, especially if Allen continues his trend of missing a month every season, isn’t an ideal tactic but the need is unquestioned.
Comparing this trade of a 4th rounder to the Bates trade for a 5th rounder is jarring.
Couple other OL signings which is good to see. Shelton will challenge the aforementioned Bates for the starting Center job. Curhan played with OC Waldron in Seattle and will likely be the swing Tackle.
Somewhat interesting trend. The Bears trade for Ryan Bates with the Bills and they hired the Bills DL coach as their DC. The brought in Curhan from Seattle where the new OC and a handful of other position coaches came from. They traded for Allen and signed Gerald Everett while also hiring the Chargers former WR coach. The brought in Shelton who played with the Rams where our new PGC Brown cut his teeth. Seems like Poles is letting the coaches influence the roster building pretty heavily.
Washington sends QB Sam Howell, who was never consistently successful here, to Seattle in exchange for libing up in draft position, and bring in Marcus Mariota. It seems like they are planning on drafting a QB in the first round and making him the starter, with Mariota as backup/mentor.
Somewhat related.
Lots of QB movement and the one QB everyone was expecting to move still sits.
Vikings trades picks 42, 188, and a 2nd rounder next year for Texan’s 23 and 232. Presumably planning to move up further, because I can’t imagine there’s a reason to move to the bottom of the first round before any picks have been made.
They’ve been asking too much. A 2nd rounder and another pick is probably fair, but not realistic. Nobody is going to give them that. They’re going to have to accept a 3rd or worse, or maybe a swap of close 2nds plus like a 6th or 7th is probably the best they’re going to do. Had they only asked for say, a 3rd and a 6th, teams would have lined up to make that trade.