I’ve now seen all 15 of the shorts and yeah, they were overwhelmingly sad and depressing. Usually at least one of the animated ones is funny and entertaining, but with no Pixar all 5 were a slog this year. I didn’t really enjoy any of them.
The documentary shorts were actually more upbeat than the animated or live action! I thought “The Last Repair Shop” was excellent.
I only have two more features to go (“Io Capitano,” which I am seeing tomorrow, and “American Symphony”) before I have seen every single nominee!
It’s also an adaptation - although “reading” would be a better term - of one of my favorite Roald Dhal short stories. I had actually loved it as a kid, then forgotten about it for 35 years; one of the joys of watching the film was thinking. “Hey, I know this story! It’s a great story!”
We watched the SAG awards last night…the winners tracked identically with the acting categories the Golden Globes. I suspect that there will be no surprises in Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress or Best Picture. Those will be Free Spaces in your Oscar pool.
I think Best Actress is still up in the air between Lily Gladstone & Emma Stone. Neither is really far and away the front runner like the other acting categories, Picture & Director.
As it happens, the Lily Gladstone movie and the Emma Stone one are the only two of the movies that got “Best Actress” nominations that I haven’t seen, so I can’t really comment on your evaluation. But I have to ask whether you’ve seen Nyad and Anatomy of a Fall, because if it’s that obvious that Gladstone and Stone’s performances are superior to Annette Bening in the former and Sandra Hüller in the latter, they must be two of the most incredible performances to ever hit the screen!
When you get down towards the bottom of the list of 8-10 pictures, we’re talking about a difference of a handful of votes between #8 and #12. It’s statistically meaningless. It could be an accident of when the screeners got mailed out. It is the nature of such things that the real difference in voting is all up around #1-#4.
The betting markets slightly prefer Stone. You might think Gladstone is a better bet, but I advise you not to bet anything on her that you cannot afford to lose.
I’ve seen everything. I’m not saying that’s who I think is best (I’d probably pick Hüller if I was voting), but which is likely to win based on other award wins, critics and general feeling. Annette Bening and Carey Mulligan are at the bottom of the list, followed by Hüller in 3rd, and Gladstone and Stone neck-and-neck for #1.
IMHO, based on years of movie-watching and Oscar observing, it matters enormously! It’s one of the things I really dislike about the Oscars – politics of all kinds figures into it. Real artistic merit is usually somewhere in there in the mix but sometimes you can hardly figure out where it is in the priorities, but they like to pretend that artistic merit is all that really matters.
Maybe if I actually was in the industry I could judge better but sometimes it’s hard to tell which performance is better. And then there are different kinds of acting. There’s the Gary Oldman disappear into the role sort of acting and then there’s the kind where you never forget that you’re seeing Tom Cruise or whoever in the role.
I don’t think there is a single nominee for this award that is out of place. You can argue that there is a performance you found more compelling this year, that’s always going to be subjective, but I don’t think you can argue that anyone on this list didn’t provide a performance that justifies their nomination
If I was predicting the vote, I would place Hüller in 5th, not because of the performance, which was riveting, but because the film’s “buzz”, from a subtitled film that didn’t get much exposure in release, works against her. Bening, I think gets a boost over Mulligan because a) Bening is a veteran with a lot of “deserved an Oscar” performances, and the Academy loves to add points for a body of work and b) Mulligan’s role in Maestro is more of a supporting role than definite lead.
I also agree that Gladstone and Stone are neck and neck, with Gladstone having a slight edge. The acting wing is the majority of the Academy, and actors love to reward accomplished peers in meaty roles. Both Stone and Gladstone’s performances qualify.
Stone did an amazing job of creating a character from the ground up that could have been off-putting, but instead was someone you could empathize with and laugh at and with on her journey. On the other hand, the bar is raised for performers that have already been honored. And Poor Things is a somewhat off-putting film for some, what with the surrealism and body horror.
Gladstone was a stand out in a role that could have been a background character to DiCaprio and De Niro, It’s also both an advantage and a disadvantage that she came somewhat out of nowhere (she’s not a first-timer as some might think, she has had 10+ years of outstanding roles in (mostly) indies). The Native American element is also a two edged sword. The Academy voters are largely “creatives” and many survived early years as outsiders, if not outright bullied outcasts. As such, they are the worst candidates for anti-woke philosophy, They empathize with those that rise to heights against odds (you can call this politics if you want, I call it something deeper). On the other hand, a Native American playing a Native American brings up the question of whether it was the actor or the role that was outstanding, especially when the director is someone like Scorsese. Maybe some of the voters will slightly downgrade Gladstone’s performance. Who knows?
If you forced me to lay down a bet, I’d put my money on Gladstone, but wouldn’t be counting on getting it back.
The Gold Derby website used to offer free pool creation, but I don’t see it anymore. The other sites I checked seem to require payment.
ETA I think it could be done in Google sheets? And I think I could do it, except I don’t really work in Sheets, and in particular I don’t know how to anonymize my gmail address or other information…
Is there such a thing as Oscar bingo – a 5x5 grid with randomly generated winners in each square? And you get to fill in the square if (for example) Poor Things wins Best Film Editing?