The 2019 Road to the Oscars thread

Cafe Society
1

So 'tis the season where once again, Academy campaigns are in full swing and films with award aspirations start fanning out theatrically in what many consider the strategic sweet spot of Oct-Dec.

Of course, the success of ROMA last year means that Netflix has doubled down with major titles with heavy-duty Oscar street cred which will have a relatively short and limited release in theaters before making most of its impact on the streaming service.

And yes, awards don’t go to the deserving parties as often as they should, and the Oscars never fail to disappoint in sometimes rewarding the mediocre and snubbing the terrific (if often obscure), but this is NOT the thread to go down that historical wormhole, so please stay on topic.

This is about the horse race that’s meant to celebrate the film achievements of 2019. So that said, here’s the landscape currently since both the Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations are out, as well as a handful of high-profile critics awards (with some low-profile ones as well).
PICTURE – the major contenders currently are:

1917*+
BOMBSHELL
DOLEMITE IS MY NAME*
THE FAREWELL+
THE IRISHMAN*+
JOJO RABBIT*+
JOKER*+
KNIVES OUT*
LITTLE WOMEN+
MARRIAGE STORY*+
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD*+
PARASITE*+
THE TWO POPES*+

(* = GG, + = CC)
ACTOR – those w/the most traction & attention currently

Antonio Banderas, PAIN AND GLORY
Robert DeNiro, THE IRISHMAN
Leonardo DiCaprio, ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
Adam Driver, MARRIAGE STORY
Taron Egerton, ROCKETMAN
Eddie Murphy, DOLEMITE IS MY NAME
Joaquin Phoenix, JOKER
Jonathan Pryce, THE TWO POPES
Adam Sandler, UNCUT GEMS
ACTRESS – those w/the most traction & attention currently

Awkwafina, THE FAREWELL
Cynthia Erivo, HARRIET
Scarlett Johansson, MARRIAGE STORY
Lupita Nyong’o, US
Saoirse Ronan, LITTLE WOMEN
Charlize Theron, BOMBSHELL
Renee Zellweger, JUDY
SUPPORTING ACTOR – those w/the most traction & attention currently

Willem Dafoe, THE LIGHTHOUSE
Tom Hanks, A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
Anthony Hopkins, THE TWO POPES
Al Pacino, THE IRISHMAN
Joe Pesci, THE IRISHMAN
Brad Pitt, ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
Sam Rockwell, RICHARD JEWELL
SUPPORTING ACTRESS – those w/the most traction & attention currently

Kathy Bates, RICHARD JEWELL
Laura Dern, MARRIAGE STORY
Scarlett Johansson, JOJO RABBIT
Jennifer Lopez, HUSTLERS
Margot Robbie, BOMBSHELL
Shuzhen Zhao, THE FAREWELL
DIRECTOR (some obvious repeats w/Picture)

Noah Baumbach, MARRIAGE STORY
Bong Joon-Ho, PARASITE
Greta Gerwig, LITTLE WOMEN
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, JOKER
Martin Scorsese, THE IRISHMAN
Quentin Tarantino, ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
Taika Waititi, JOJO RABBIT
Not everything has even been released yet (notably the Gerwig & Mendes films) and once the guilds start weighing in, we’ll get a better idea where the enthusiasm within the industry is leaning (rather than just critics groups).

So any thoughts so far?

2

I can’t disagree with those listed.

I don’t know if they have any buzz, but two of the best pictures of the year are::

The Last Black Man in San Francisco
Tigers are Not Afraid (I know, I know, not a chance)

Acting, I’d throw in:

Shia LaBeouf - Supporting Actor (Honey Boy)
Jimmie Fails - Best Actor (The Last Black Man in San Francisco)
Jessie Buckley - Best Actress (Wild Rose)
Paola Lara - Best Actress (Tigers Are Not Afraid)

Some questions:

[ul]
[li]I haven’t seen it yet (opens this weekend), but is there any buzz for A Hidden Life?[/li][li]What’s the “Green Book” of 2019? Judy? Just Mercy? Harriet?[/li][/ul]
I’ll probably have more thoughts after this weekend.

3

Of the movies you listed, Parasite was probably the best movie. It isn’t the best movie of the year for me, but it is the best of the ones you listed.

I would prefer that Avengers: Endgame win the award much like Return of the King did. As much for the overall accomplishment of the Marvel universe as the movie itself(which was great).

The Nightingale was probably the next best movie I saw this year and is more like Oscar-winning material, though the intensity of it is probably too much for many. I mean, this movie has an opening 30 minutes that are traumatizing. Still, it is worth it for the overall journey the movie takes us on. Solid movie and better than The Babadook, the director’s previous movie.

I Want To Eat Your Pancreas should probably win the animated movie award, though I think it had a 2018 release in Japan.

4

Mary Kay Place just won Best Actress by the LA Film Critics for her amazing work in DIANE, so that’s another I’d put on my wish list. And I intentionally left off names that are good and getting a lot of internet “buzz” among the pundits (Wesley Snipes in DOLEMITE, Florence Pugh in LITTLE WOMEN) but have yet to manifest in anything real.

But I think of all the ones you mentioned, the only with an outside chance is Shia because of the narrative about him playing his own father (though I found the film and him overrated). It doesn’t hurt that he wrote the film and had another successful indie this year (PEANUT BUTTER FALCON). SAG may provide some insight on his chances.

Mostly just Cinematography, because Malick films do will with that branch. But the film was not submitted by Germany as its official Best International Film contender.

For many, the big harbinger that GREEN BOOK brought to the table last year was the Toronto Film Festival Audience Award prize. The suggestion was that the festival audience’s taste runs similar to the Academy’s (previous Toronto winners included THREE BILLBOARDS, LA LA LAND, ROOM, THE IMITATION GAME, and 12 YEARS A SLAVE–all of which were future Picture/Director/Acting nominees that also won at least one major Oscar each).

This year’s winner was JOJO RABBIT, so while I think the film is a mess and a misfire, that’s the one to keep an eye on.

5

Remember that not only did the previous LOTR films also get Best Picture nominations, but FELLOWSHIP alone earned as many nods as all the MCU films combined, to date. So rewarding the series for its overall arc probably won’t happen, except perhaps in Visual Effects (where it’s competing with STAR WARS Episode 9, in a category that franchise hasn’t won in 35+ years).

Yeah, horror films get overlooked regularly in any of the high-profile categories (that Lupita is getting any traction for US is amazing, as well-deserved as her fantastic performance is). While THE LIGHTHOUSE wasn’t as good as THE WITCH (imho), it’s still a film I liked a lot that’s also (like NIGHTINGALE) a follow-up to an auspicious horror film, and while it’s not quite a “horror” film, it is a bizarre fever dream that still may score a nod or two (Dafoe, Cinematography). But yeah, Jennifer Kent’s film was very controversial and polarizing because of the content so will be a tough sell for the more conservative Academy members (heck, even other excellent, more mainstream films from women directors are still going to have to fight for a seat at the table).

Did it get a theatrical release in the US in 2019? Because here’s the list of animated features submitted for consideration for that category, and PANCREAS isn’t on it.

There’s usually a foreign film on this slate and the most likely candidate is I LOST MY BODY (the French film about an amputated/disembodied hand trying to find its original owner). It’s a cel animation entry, so unusual in that sense, but is getting some critic’s award attention.

The tough thing to predict is that this category is very unfriendly to franchise sequels: Oscar-winners SHREK, MONSTERS INC, FINDING NEMO, THE INCREDIBLES all had sequels that fizzled here (even if they got a nod, which they sometimes didn’t). I don’t count TOY STORY 3, because its two predecessors were released before this category existed, but this year, the major contenders are all sequels: TOY STORY 4, FROZEN 2, HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 3.

I’m hoping that even though it’s not as good as CORALINE or KUBO AND THE TWO STRINGS, this still gives hope to MISSING LINK, since stop-motion giant LAIKA has never won this category and is seriously overdue (and the film itself is a lot of fun). But it’s still a long-shot compared to the titles which made serious bank.

6

Nightingale is hardly a horror movie.

7

If Parasite even gets nominated for Best Picture, that would be a good win. I have to think it will win best International Feature(new title) film.

8

My main thought is that there is a mere 27 days between the announcement of nominees and the ceremony. I wish they’d give us more time than that to fill in the blanks.

Also, I think “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood” and “Richard Jewell” are likely Best Picture nominees. Perhaps even “Rocketman”.

9

If it gets a Picture and Director nod (both very good bets), the International Film win seems the closest thing to a Lock right now.

10

Well, the SAG nominations were announced:

ACTOR - DiCaprio, Driver, Egerton, Phoenix, and Christian Bale (FORD V FERRARI)

I think the general assumption when Bale got a Globe nod was that it was to fill out the category, since they have twice the nominees with the Drama/Comedy split. But with his presence here, it makes him a genuine contender.

ACTRESS - Erivo, Johansson, Nyong’o, Theron, Zellweger

No big surprises, but proof that Lupita’s campaign is working for a genre film that was released way back in the spring.

SUPP. ACTOR - Hanks, Pacino, Pesci, Pitt and Jamie Foxx (JUST MERCY)

Note that if this is the final Oscar slate, it will be only the second time that a complete set of acting nominees in one category are all former winners. THE IRISHMAN gets two nods here but not for DeNiro in lead.

SUPP. ACTRESS - Dern, Lopez, Robbie, Johansson (JOJO RABBIT) and Nicole Kidman (BOMBSHELL).

Scarlett doubles up in lead and supporting and the Fox News expose plays with a possible vote split (though Robbie will benefit from the residual impact of Tarantino’s film, too).

ENSEMBLE - BOMBSHELL, THE IRISHMAN, JOJO RABBIT, ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD, PARADISE

The big news here is from South Korea, where Foreign Language films never penetrate this category (even ROMA, which earned more Oscar acting nods than any Foreign Language Film ever, didn’t show up here). The actor’s branch is the largest in AMPAS so this many actors in the film’s corner almost certainly secures a Best Picture nod for it.

While many people associate Ensemble with Best Picture, the last two Oscar Best Pictures (GREEN BOOK and THE SHAPE OF WATER) didn’t even score a SAG Ensemble nod, so MARRIAGE STORY or LITTLE WOMEN (which was snubbed by SAG altogether) aren’t completely out of that race.

11

After the surprise last-minute success of AMERICAN SNIPER, the industry learned not to underestimate Eastwood (though the latest RJ controversy may pose a problem).

I think ROCKETMAN is a much much better movie than BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY, but the latter was far more financially successful, and came out later in the year, so the fact that Taron could even make the SAG 5 is a tribute to his tireless campaigning (as well as a terrific performance). But I’d be surprised if it got more than him and a few craft nods (Sound Mixing, Costumes).

NEIGHBORHOOD is a lovely film but like its subject, also a muted and modest one so I’d be surprised if it got more than a nod for Hanks and maybe Screenplay. The Best Picture race is such a glut as it is, but the more films with women directors showing up in any category is a net positive.

12

Turns out there’s a Wikipedia page listing all the double acting Oscar nominees. There’s been 11 so far. A bigger number than I would have guessed. There was a long run without any from 1945 to 1981. There was a double double in 1993.

So, if nominated, Johansson would be in a small but not minuscule club.

13

Of those 11, only 3 (Bainter, Fitzgerald, Foxx) achieved this in the first year they were ever nominated, so Scarlett (never nom’d before) would make the 4th.

Also, of those 11, 7 ended up winning in one of the two categories, so those odds aren’t too bad…

14

Even if Avengers: Endgame is not worthy of a Best Picture nomination (whether as a standalone or as representative of the whole MCU), is it possible that we could see it getting a nod in either the director or screenwriter categories? The cast was huge, the task of delivering plot, action, character moments and call-backs was not an easy one to pull off. The ball could have been dropped very easily, but I’d say there was pretty broad consensus that the single film Endgame made for both a satisfying conclusion to multiple storylines as well as a movie that is both memorable and re-watchable. This should be worth something to people who understand movie making, shouldn’t it?

15

Remember that Best Picture has up to 10 spaces on its nomination slate, but Director only has 5, which makes is a much more difficult proposition to get a slot. Also, Best Picture is chosen by the entire Academy body but the Directors’ branch chooses the Director nominees, so they’re far more likely to choose films that highlight a film director’s individual vision and artistry. I like ENDGAME a lot, and while the logistical challenges of juggling so many timelines, cast members, and effects sequence is mind-boggling, most directors are going to see it as a committee-driven commercial product than a vehicle for individual expression. Remember that BLACK PANTHER received a Picture nod but Ryan Coogler didn’t get one for Director, and his creative fingerprints, I’d argue, are far more prevalent in that film than the Russos’ in theirs.

Similarly, screenplay is another tough nut to crack because you have to convince the writers’ branch to pick your big-budget Hollywood comic book film over a universe of indie films that will likely only find a nomination slot in the Screenplay category. The only comic book film to ever earn a screenplay nod was LOGAN, which was about as spare and stripped-down a franchise comic book film as has been made in the last 20 years. Plus, the conventional wisdom was that the competition was a bit thinner that year than in previous ones.

I think the closest that ENDGAME has any hopes of getting near any of those categories is with the Producers Guild (PGA), which often recognizes big moneymaking successes in their nominations (CRAZY RICH ASIANS, WONDER WOMAN, DEADPOOL, SKYFALL), but which don’t translate over to the Oscars very often.

16

I thought this was a mistake. I checked. Inded no Oscar noms for either Lost in Translation or Girl With The Pearl Earing.

Time to atone.

17

Well, some of the branches at AMPAS traditionally provide a shortlist of Oscar contenders for select categories, so while it’s not the final nomination slate, it dramatically narrow down the competition to a relative handful of films vying for a nod.

The categories are:

Original Score
Song
Visual Effects
Make-up and Hairstyling
International Film
Documentary Feature
Documentary Short
Animated Short
Live Action Short

I won’t repost all the lists but you can find them here.

Films that two appearances across these lists: AVENGERS: ENDGAME, BOMBSHELL, FROZEN II, HONEYLAND, JOKER, THE LION KING, LITTLE WOMEN, MOTHERLESS BROOKLYN, PAIN AND GLORY, PARASITE, ROCKETMAN, and STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER.

The only film that appeared on three lists was 1917 (which has yet to be released).

18

I was lucky enough to see a sneak preview of that last week, with director Sam Mendes, writer Krysty Wilson-Cairns, and actors Dean-Charles Chapman and George MacKay there for a Q&A. It’s, in my humble opinion, of course, one of the very best movies of the year. Looking at the contenders in the OP, even though I’m team (in this order) Once Upon A Time In Hollywood/JoJo Rabbit (my 2 favorite movies of the year)/Parasite/Knives Out, I would be thrilled to have 1917 representing as Best Picture. I have other reasons to want it to win if none of my favorites will, but it really is deserving too.

I saw an advance screening of Little Women last night, and personally I don’t think it’s a contender for BP & BD, though it’d be fine with me for nominations. I liked it very much.

I’ve seen all the potential nominees in the OP except for Bombshell, which I’ll see Wednesday, and The Two Popes, which I won’t be able to see at all so I hope AMPAS makes it easy for me and doesn’t nominate it.

19

Yeah, 1917 and BOMBSHELL are the two big ones I need to wait for, too.
I have some serious issues around the Tarantino and the Waititi (especially the latter) so while the former can’t be denied for reasons I completely understand—especially its craftsmanship–, the latter’s appeal (which is undeniable) is inexplicable to me given how timid a misfire it is to these eyes. I call it LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL syndrome and an opportunity lost given how terrific the rest of his films have been.

I also don’t think much of FERRARI or JOKER so would be thrilled if Gerwig inched out a Director’s nod (it is easily one of the best movies of the year for me). But the pieces are beginning to align and I suspect Adapted is the best that LITTLE WOMEN can hope for. I think waiting for a Xmas release was a strategic mistake and with an earlier release, we’d be having a very different conversation.

I would also love to see Pryce get in for POPES (it is the best thing he’s ever done, though his smaller turn in THE MAN WHO KILLED DON QUIXOTE earlier this year was also marvelous), as well as Eddie Murphy, but the Best Actor field is incredibly congested right now and while DeNiro is already vulnerable (he was MIA for SAG), if Phoenix or DiCaprio went missing because those alternate choices got in, I wouldn’t feel any serious injustice at play.

That PARASITE is doing so well across so many guilds is welcome news but it remains to be seen how much of a ROMA it can pull off (both with noms and high-profile wins, since Cuaron was very much an Academy known-quantity well before 2018, while Bong is an AMPAS newbie in every sense).

20

To me they’re both perfect movies that I could see over and over and over again in the theater (I saw OUATIH 11 times and JoJo 7 times, and will be 8 on Sunday) and I adore them beyond measure. I’m just thrilled they’re both doing so well during this awards season. It’s rare that my favorite movie of the year gets any any awards love, let alone 2. It’s only happened twice before, There Will Be Blood/No Country For Old Men, and The Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring/Moulin Rouge.

I hope the Netflix films get dick. I know they’ll get nominations but I don’t want to see them win anything. I know I’m alone in this, but I loathe Netflix and don’t want to see them rewarded. That said, I’m a hypocrite because I’d love to see Eddie Murphy nominated. Dolomite Is My Name is a wonderful movie and deserved a proper theatrical run. It played in ONE theater on the far south side of Chicago for two weeks. I had to take a 2 1/2-hour round-trip on public transportation to see it. It was worth the trip but I vowed, never again. The Two Popes is playing in ONE theater on the far north side. It would take a 3-hour round-trip to see. No thanks. Anyway, it’s my problem, a minority opinion, and a first world problem to boot, but to hell with Netflix.

Sorry to go off topic.