It’s not even the end of the year yet, but it feels like the perfect time to start WAGing about which films are going to be up for what. To my mind, predicting nominations is way more fun than predicting the winners themselves, because it doesn’t involve quite as much direct comparison between inherently different pieces of art.
This is also an especially interesting year for Oscars, I think, because there are few absolutely monumental undeniable front-runners, and a sizable number of movies that could feasibly get nods (especially for Best Picture). And the pool is so diverse that there’s a lot to discuss based on personal preference, style, etc.
Here are my guesses; based less on personal preference (I haven’t seen many of the films) and more on buzz, cynicism and “what people are saying.” Add your own fuel to the fire below!
Best Picture Noms
(In order of inevitability)
Milk: Haven’t seen this one yet (really want to, but haven’t made it), but I can’t imagine a world where it doesn’t get a nomination. Probably the only absolute, rock-solid foregone conclusion on the list for me. Sean Penn’s performance, a social-minded progressive message, a biopic, and all the Prop 8 drama to boot means it’s perfect Oscar-bait.
The Dark Knight: Second most likely. In this, the Academy gets a fan favorite, a box-office smash, a fantastic movie, a dead leading actor, and even a bit of edgy street-cred for choosing a movie based on a comic-book. Maybe even a frontrunner for Best Picture, who knows. Will definitely be shocked if it’s not on the ticket.
Wall-E: More guaranteed viewers for the ceremony in this pick: It’s a cartoon! How novel! How shocking! Unprecedented! (Well, except for Beauty and the Beast, but that was before there was an Animation category.) Keep in mind that any movie can be nominated for Best Picture, despite the category, so feasibly Wall-E could get Best Animated Picture and Best Picture, on the same night. And in a perfect world, I’d like to see that happen; Wall-E is my pick for the best of the year. Sadly, I think a nomination will be as far as it gets, but I think it’s a pretty good bet that it’ll get that much (especially since the LA Critics Association named it their best picture of the year yesterday; talk about a PR boost).
So those are my top three picks, leaving two spots that I see boiling down to a fight between three pictures (none of which have opened yet, at least not widely):
The Wrestler: Mickey Rourke’s sure-thing Best Actor nom might cancel this one out, but it’s getting a HUGE amount of buzz and is supposed to be the bee’s knees. Very strong contender for the low-key/indie movie slot in the noms.
Frost/Nixon: Based on a hit play (so is Doubt, but I think this one has more of a cache), historical, edgy political story in edgy political times; this one has a lot going for it. I think its nomination will hinge on whether or not the film manages to chip its way into the mainstream, even a little.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: A good amount of buzz around it, but honestly at this point I feel like it’ll fall through the cracks a bit (probably with a best actor nom for Brad Pitt and some other costume/make-up type smaller wins). The movie might be the Next Big Thing once it opens, though, so again, we shall see.
All in all, my vote goes to The Wrestler and Frost/Nixon rounding out the noms.
Other Random-Ass Guesses In Other Categories
-Heath Ledger gets a posthumous Supporting Actor Nom, and probably wins. Oh, there will be tears.
-Charlie Kauffman gets nominated for Screenplay, but given that he won for Eternal Sunshine last go-round and his current one (Synecdoche, New York) didn’t really set the world on fire, I don’t think he’ll come away with it this time around (not sure what will).
-Best Actor comes down to Mickey Rourke, Brad Pitt, Sean Penn and two other sacrificial lambs. Sean Penn takes it if Milk doesn’t win best picture; otherwise, probably Mickey.
-Baz Luhrmann gets Best Director nom for Australia, but doesn’t win. Probable other noms for The Wrestler and The Dark Knight and, off-chance, Wall-E.
-Doubt cleans up the Actress Awards (Best for Meryl, Best Supporting for Amy Adams). One of them might lose out, but both will be nominated and at least one will win.
And them’s what I’ve got right now; let the tomfoolery and unfounded debates commence!